November 25th Cycle High (S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000) Arrives; Stock Sell-off Likely!
11/25/24 – “Stock Indices have fulfilled the 3rd of 3 cycle highs, projected to be part of a topping phase in fulfillment of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks. They now enter a time when all of them are vulnerable to a round of sharp selling after fulfilling a series of highs projected for Oct 17/18, Nov 11 – 13th and ultimately Nov 22/25th.
For the past two months, the focus has been on that final cycle – in late-Nov ’24 – to complete a topping phase and usher in the time when broader-based selling and a multi-week (instead of just multi-day) decline would become a much higher probability.
As described since early-October, the S+P Midcap 400 was forecast to lead that overall advance and likely wait until November 22/25, 2024 to peak.
The October 9, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert (and corresponding IT Updates) described the outlook this way:
10-09-24 – “Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is on the horizon. Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24.
If a multi-month high were set at that time, it would fulfill the following cycles & timing indicators:
- ~13-month/~56-week low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~8-month/34 – 35-week high (late-March ’22) – high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-March ’24) – (high; late-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression.
- ~4-month/~17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~2-month/~8 – 9-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~15-week low-low-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~5-week low-low-low-high*- (high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression… *if the S+P Midcap rallies into October 14 – 18th.
- Back-to-back-to-back-to-back ~13-month rallies (Dec ’18 – Jan ’20, Mar ’20 – Apr ’21, June ’22 – July ’23, Oct ’23 – November 2024).
So it is possible, if it emerges as expected, that a late-October peak would only be a penultimate one… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.
The S+P Midcap 400 remains in a bullish setup after setting multiple peaks at 3120 – 3140/IDX. The latest spurred a brief pullback that twice neutralized (but did not turn down) the daily uptrend while setting successive lows at the rising daily 21 High MAC and reversing higher repeatedly (without turning the intra-month trend down).
All those factors are likely to spur a breakout higher that could see a quick, accelerated rally into October 17 – 21st.. On a 1 – 2 month basis, the NQ-100 has wave objectives converging near the July ’24 peak – around 21,200/NQZ.” — October 9, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Reinforcing the outlook for the NQ-100 and key tech stocks to peak early, cycles projected an important peak by/on November 8th. The October 11, 2024 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update described the outlook this way:
10-11-24 – “Stock Indices remain positive with the DJIA & S+P Midcap 400 leading a new surge in which the Nasdaq-100 could/should retest its high and potentially set a double top. A pair of highs could be seen – first on Oct 17 – 21st… The DJTA corroborated that by tracing out an entire ‘a-b-c’ decline without turning its daily trend down, a sign that signaled it was poised to embark on a new rally…
Meanwhile, the NQ-100 maintains wave targets near the July ’24 peak – around 21,200/NQZ… and is reinforced by the recent lows creating an Intermediate LLH in the vicinity. [A few key tech stocks possess uncanny synergy of cycles that converge on Nov 4 – 8, 2024 – portending a (likely) decisive peak at that time.]
This could be showing that stocks will see a rally into October 14 – 21st (greatest synergy on Oct 17, 18 & 21) followed by a brief pullback… The S+P Midcap 400 has broken out higher in fulfillment of ongoing analysis… this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is on the horizon.
Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.” — October 11, 2024 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update
The NQ-100, as well as NVDA, MU and others, set their highest daily closes on November 7th/8th… The DJIA & DJTA showed similar cycles – in particular a reinforcing ~5-week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression culminating on Nov 22/25th – that was described in early-November as stocks were setting intra-month lows:
11-06-24 – “Similar cycles have been unfolding in the DJ Transportation Average, which also remains on track for a likely 3 – 6 month (or longer) peak in November 2024. They include:
- ~8-month high-high-high-(high; November ’24) Cycle Progression
- ~12.5-month* low-low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
- [More precise *56-week low-low-(high; November 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression]
- 17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
- ~5-week low-low-high-(high; November 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression**
**The DJIA has a similar ~5-week/~37-day low-low-high-(high; Nov 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression coming into play at that time with November 22/25th representing the daily version of that cycle. Now that it has confirmed a multi-week low, a multi-week peak is likely at that time.” — November 6, 2024 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update
By rallying into November 25th, all of these indexes have fulfilled the ideal timing for a multi-month peak.
While that does not, in and of itself, signal that a top is intact, it does provide an ideal setup for a peak to take hold. The Russell 2000 spiking above (but not closing above) 2460/QR – a multi-year upside range-trading target – reinforces that potential.
The potential for a large correction is now increasing with each passing day as a result of most extreme upside targets – in price and time – being fulfilled in diverse stocks and indexes.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are adhering to the October/November outlook and have rallied into November 22/25th when the S+P Midcap & Russell 2000 portend decisive peaks as they attack major upside range-trading targets near 3400/IDX & 2460/QR. The DJTA is similar (~17,600 target). (S+P 500 & NQ-100 are distinct.) The 17-Year Cycle also remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities.
In early-October, the S+P Midcap 400 was projected to lead an overall surge into late-November ’24 – when a more significant peak is a higher probability (though price action would need to validate). The greatest synergy of those cycles – reiterated many times in our publications – is on November 22/25th and represents the ideal time for the small and midcap indexes to set pivotal peaks.
Stocks Positive into October 17/18th, Then Late-November; S+P 400 to Lead Way Higher
Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying a pair of likely time frames when subsequent sell-offs are more likely… and when future lows are expected.
Why are S+P Midcap & Russell 2000 Likely to Peak on/around November 25, 2024?
Is Russell 2000 Range Target Signaling Déjà vu to November 2021?
How are Major Range Targets in DJTA, IDX AND RUT Projecting a Top?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.