NQ-100 Projects March 13/14 Low; Subsequent Rally to ~14,000/NQ.

03/14/23 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: Nasdaq-100: A Closer Look – “Stock Indices continue to diverge with the NQ-100 remaining in the most positive structure.  For starters, it bottomed much later than most other indexes – stretching a final low into late-Dec/early-Jan ’23 when it fulfilled a 7-month/~30-week high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that projects a future low in Aug ’23.

[That is the same time (late-July/early-Aug ‘23) the DJIA would fulfill a ~9.5 month high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression and the S+P 500 would fulfill a related 40 – 41-week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression.]…

After setting that low, the NQ-100 rallied and ultimately turned its weekly trend up.  (Currently, the NQ-100 would not even neutralize its weekly uptrend until a weekly close below 11,520/NQM.)

At the same time, (late-Jan/early-Feb ’23), the NQ-100 closed above its weekly 21 High MAC as that average was turning higher.

Both that pattern and the weekly trend pattern usually usher in an initial peak and multi-week pullback – often retracing to the weekly trend point and/or the rising weekly 21 High MAC.

The NQ-100 has pulled back to the rising weekly 21 High MAC and retraced 50% of its Jan/Feb rally – reinforcing range-trading support and other critical levels of support near 11,800 – 11,900/NQM.

It has spiked lower into March 13 – perpetuating a ~1-month/~30-day** low (Oct 13/14 ’22) – high (Nov 13/14 ’22) – high (Dec 13/14 ’22) – high (Jan 13/14 ’23) – high (Feb 13/14 ’23) – low (Mar 13/14 ’23) Cycle Progression that corroborates an ~11-week low-low-(low) Cycle Progression this week.

(**The daily Cycle Progression is more pronounced in some other indexes, like the DJIA, but all of them have set these mid-month turning points.)

All of these factors favor a multi-week low taking hold at/near the March 13 low.  One other form of divergence has been observed among the NQ-100 indexes, themselves…

While the June ’23 NQ-100 futures closed slightly below their early-month lows, the March NQ-100 futures AND the QQQ ETF did NOT close below their early-month lows on March 10 – leaving their intra-month trends in a more positive structure.

Another corroborating factor is the intra-year trend.  Simply put, a market needs to give a weekly close above the trading range of the first three weeks (of a new year) in order to turn its intra-year trend up.

Once that has been triggered, that high (breakout point, the high of the first three weeks) becomes a decisive level of ‘resistance turned into support’ that is often retested during a subsequent pullback… before a new impulse wave (advance) emerges.

The June NQ-100 futures rallied from an early-Jan low of 10,870/NQM to a high of 11,878/NQM in that Jan 3 – 20, ’23 time frame (3 weeks).

On Jan 27, the NQ-100 closed above that range and turned its intra-year trend up.  It has remained in that intra-year uptrend ever since.  Since the early-Feb ’23 peak, the NQ-100 has been slowly retreating back toward that decisive breakout level (now support).

On March 13, the NQ-100 dipped below 11,878/NQM and then quickly reversed higher – reinforcing the decisive nature of this intra-year trend support.

On a near-term basis, the NQ-100 could provide three forms of confirmation to a developing (March 13/14) low… before or by the end of this week:

— Daily close above 12,462/NQM would turn the intra-month trend up AND have the NQ-100 closing above its descending daily 21 High MAC.

— Daily trend turns up; This cannot occur until the close on March 16, at the very earliest, and the trigger point is [reserved for subscribers].

— Weekly close above 12,446/NQM would generate a weekly 2 Close Reversal higher.

Any of these factors would signal at least a 1 – 2 week low in the NQ-100.  Two or more of them would confirm greater strength and reinforce the potential for the NQ-100 – and other indexes – to rally into late-March ’23, when weekly cycles converge.

(A related ~2-month/~60-degree high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression could even stretch a NQ-100 peak into April 3 or 4.)

As far as price objectives, the NQ-100 is still likely to rally to at least ~13,200 and potentially to 13,500 – 13,800 – the mid-Aug ‘22 high and corroborating upside targets.  Three consecutive monthly LHRs (extreme upside monthly targets) also converged in that range.

A high near there would double the Oct/Nov ’22 rally and the Jan ’23 rally – two examples of range-trading.  It would also fulfill a 50% rebound of the 2021/22 sell-off.

[On a cash basis, the NQ-100 continues to trace out range-trading quadrants, bordered by 16,500, 15,000, 13,500, 12,000 & 10,500/NQ.  The major top occurred with a high weekly close at 16,573/NQ and triggered an overall decline to 10,500/NQ.  Those ranges remain pivotal with ~12,000/NQ being the latest swing point.

That is one of several reasons why a rally to at least 13,500/NQ is still a strong potential – a move that would also fulfill a 50% rebound of the entire decline.]

Based on wave action, there is a good chance the futures could spike above those levels & attack ~14,000/ NQM – where a new rally (from the March 13 low, if that holds) would equal the magnitude of the Jan/Feb ’23 rally.

That is just below its declining monthly 21 High MAC near ~14,200/NQ.  (Since its monthly 21 High MARC has jumped to ~14,500+ this month, the 21 MAC would continue to head down and potentially apply resistance to this advance… if it made it that high.)…

With the 1Q ’23 rallies, just about every stock index fulfilled the outlook for ~20% rallies from their 4Q ’22 lows.  That means that a key upside objective has already been met.  That does not, however, remove the potential for additional upside – allowing remaining stock indexes to approach or attack other specific upside price targets associated with this advance.”  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

The NQ-100 is reinforcing the likelihood for a new multi-week advance to at least 13,800/NQ, likely above 14,000, as part of the projected rally from its late-Dec/early-Jan ’23 multi-month cycle low.  Daily cycle lows on March 13/14 are portending the onset of that new rally.

Those upside price targets – and how/when they are reached – should reveal a great deal about what to expect leading into key cycles in late-July/early-Aug ’23.

 

What Did/Does 4Q ’22 4-Shadow Signal Portend for 1Q ‘23?

How Long Will New Rallies Last?

What Would Likely Follow Tests of ~14,000+/NQ & ~4300/ES?

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.