NQ-100 Projects Pullback to ~12,200/NQ Before Projected Surge to ~13,800/NQ.
02/08/23 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock Indices remain in the midst of positive cycles after tracing out a series of multi-month lows – some progressively higher with others diverging – in mid-June, mid-Sept ’22, and then in late-Dec/early-Jan ’23…
On an intermediate basis, most indexes remain in weekly & intra-year uptrends, portending additional upside at some point in 1Q ’23. The DJIA is the only exception and would not turn its intra-year trend up until a weekly close above 34,342/DJIA.
In early-Jan ’23, the NQ-100 finally completed a ~14-month down cycle (a ~7-month high-low and then a ~7-month low-low), setting its lowest daily close as it fulfilled a ~30-week high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that has spanned the past ~2 years… and leaving it on track for an overall rally into [reserved for subscribers]…
In contrast, the DJIA was the strongest index in 4Q ’22 and reached multi-month upside targets (~34,400) in mid-Dec – fulfilling its upside price potential for that period and ushering in its own consolidation phase. That ushered in a sector shift and laid the groundwork for the 1Q ’23 rally in the beleaguered tech stocks…
Leading this 2023 rally has been the Nasdaq-100, which has been projected to ultimately reach ~13,500 – 13,800 – the mid-Aug ‘22 high, a 50% rebound of the 2021/22 sell-off, a doubling of the Oct/Nov ’22 rally, and a doubling of the Jan ’23 rally.
Before surging there, the NQ-100 could retrace to ~12,200/NQH (and likely coincide with the DJIA dropping to 32,100 — 32,300/DJIA).
The S+P 500 is still setting up a convergence of upside targets and monthly resistance levels around 4300 – 4350/ES… that could be tested before a ‘B’ wave rally is complete. That is where the mid-Aug ‘22 peak overlaps the July – Oct ‘21 lows (support turned into resistance) and is just below where the monthly 21 MAC is peaking and flattening.”
Stock indexes are fulfilling 4-Shadow Signals (triggered in 4Q ’22) that projected new surges in 1Q ’23. Indexes like the Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 attacked their upside price targets (accomplishing what the DJIA did in 4Q ’22) while the NQ-100 and S+P 500 are projecting higher levels (~13,800/NQ & ~4300/ES) before their advances would have a better chance of peaking.
Those upside targets – and how/when they are reached – should reveal a great deal about what to expect leading into key cycles in late-July/early-Aug ’23. In the interim, stocks are fulfilling the potential for an initial high and could spur a pullback in the NQ-100 to ~12,200/NQ before a second surge becomes likely.
What Did/Does 4Q ’22 4-Shadow Signal Portend for 1Q ‘23?
How High Could Latest Rallies Reach?
What Would Likely Follow Tests of ~13,800/NQ & ~4300/ES?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.