NQ-100 Signals Peak; Enters Danger Zone With Weaker Indexes… Late-Feb/March Plunges Likely!
02/20/25 – “Stock Indices remain in the midst of multi-month trading ranges while showing progressive signs of topping (in leading/weaker indexes) and rolling over to the downside. On balance, the ensuing declines could last into late-March/early-April ’25…
The S+P Midcap – which has been leading most reversals since early-October – was projecting a rebound peak on January 22/23rd that would fulfill a 58 – 59 day high (June 3) – high (July 31) – high (Sept 27) – high (Nov 25) – (high; Jan 22/23) Cycle Progression. It topped on January 22nd.
That spurred a sharp drop even as the S+P 500 & NQ-100 remained resilient. (The S&P Midcap & Russell 2000 are showing new signs of weakness and could trigger a new sell-off at any time.) In contrast, the NQ-100 was positive and was expected to set a daily low on Feb 10th and then rally into Feb 14/18th.
That was fulfilled but the NQ-100 weekly trend remains positive and was projecting a retest of its peak before a top takes hold. At least in the cash index, that has just taken hold. As a result, a top could now take hold at any time.
The S+P 500 has twice neutralized its weekly downtrend (it reversed down in Jan ‘25) but would not turn that trend back up until a weekly close above 6162/ESH. Consequently, it could reverse lower this week (or next) – without turning the weekly trend back up – even as the NQ-100 retests its high and fulfills its weekly trend pattern.
In both cases, it would signal a new 1 – 2 month peak and usher in a (likely) multi-week decline.
The key will be the weekly close (Feb 21st) in the S+P 500, particularly since it has short term (daily) cycles converging on Feb 24th.
On an intermediate basis, stock indexes need to give weekly closes below their mid-January lows to exit the intervening trading range and elevate their sell-offs to a higher magnitude.
In addition, the DJTA continues to trace out a textbook weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence as it steadily (also) traces out a multi-month top. It again rebounded after its latest test of intermediate support (and now its trend breakdown levels) at 15,670 – 15,770/DJTA… bouncing right to weekly resistance levels and the weekly 21 High MAC – all surrounding 16,800/DJTA.
That re-focuses attention on 15,670 – 15,770/DJTA – where the DJTA initially bottomed in Dec & January and retested on February 3rd. It is where the weekly 40 Low MAC and current week’s 21 Low MARC converge. (The weekly 21 Low MARC will remain in that range for 2 more weeks, increasing its significance throughout this period.)
It is also where monthly support & the monthly trend indicator align. A weekly close below 16,140/DJTA is needed to confirm the onset of a new wave down. Until that occurs, congestion is in force.
To reiterate, the DJTA, IDX & RUT/QRH could be casting shadows ahead. If the DJTA closes below that multi-month support, it would reinforce future cycles at the very end of March/beginning of April 2025.
This overall correction is still capable of stretching into March/April ‘25 – the convergence of multiple cycles & Cycle Progressions including an 18/19-month low-low-(low??) Cycle Progression, a 2-Year Cycle (DJIA peaked in late-Nov ’22 and sold off into March ’23) and an annual cycle that timed intra-year lows in 2020, 2023 & 2024.
From a much broader perspective, there are some unusual (though limited) parallels between the current markets and a key aspect of the 1920’s and a different (key) aspect of the 1990’s. This was discussed in the Feb 19, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay Alert and will be addressed in the March ’25 INSIIDE Track.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are entering a time of cohesive bearishness where all the indexes are signaling 2 – 4 week drops with acceleration lower still forecast for March ’25. They are confirming major peaks projected for Nov 22/25, 2024 (in S+P Midcap 400 & related indexes) and subsequent/secondary highs projected for ~January 22nd.
That was/is expected to prepare the way for sharper declines into March ’25, including a likely March Meltdown and confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift. That would validate weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered on January 10/13th. Coinciding with that, Bitcoin projected a major peak for January 2025 and is signaling a sharp drop into late-Feb/early-March ’25.
The 17-Year Cycle projected 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major (multi-month and multi-quarter) peak in equities – and 2025 as the time for the next major decline. It also continues to project a recession AND stagflation in 2025/2026. Corroborating that, the DJIA is revealing eerie parallels to late-2007/early-2008 and providing a roadmap for future expectations.
What are Parallels – AND Contrasts – Between 1920’s, 1990’s & 2020’s?
How Would Late-Feb/Early-March Plunges in Equities & Cryptos Reinforce Connections?
What Do Weekly Trend & 4-Shadow Signals Bode for Late-February/March ’25… and 2Q 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.