NVDA/NQ Cycle Highs Fulfilled; Sell Signals Project Sharp Drop into August 2024!
07/13/24 – “Stock indexes remain on divergent paths but have swapped sides (rotation) in recent days with the NQ-100 rallying into July 2024 and fulfilling a number of cycles and analogs (i.e 17-Year Cycle and intra-year action of 2007, 1990 & 1973) before reversing lower. Similar to 2007, they could see overall corrections into August 2024 – the culmination of an overarching danger zone…
Stock Indices are undergoing another rotation as the normally strongest S+P 500 & NQ-100 sold off while the persistently weaker DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 rallied on the heels of cooling inflation data. At the same time, the DJUA is doing exactly what was described in mid-June, pulling back to its rising weekly 21 High MAC and then surging to new highs.
The DJIA has retested its March 21st and May 17/20th highs while fulfilling an ~8-week/56 – 57-day high-high-(high; July 12/15) Cycle Progression. At the same time, it is fulfilling a ~6.5-week/45-day low-low-(high; July 12/15) Cycle Progression.
The S+P Midcap 400 tested its rising weekly 21 Low MAC and surged into the latest phase of a 57 – 58-day high-high-high-high-(high; July 12/15) Cycle Progression but would not signal a new impulse wave (as opposed to a sharp upside corrective wave) until a daily close above 3039/IDX.
All of this comes at the time the overall market is poised to mirror another phase of the 17-Year Cycle… In 2007 AND 2024, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 initially peaked in 1Q 2007 and then underwent a sharp 3 – 4-week sell-off.
In 2007, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 subsequently rallied into July 2007 and then underwent a sharper 4 – 5-week sell-off – into August 2007.
In 2024, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 subsequently rallied into July 2024 and are expected to undergo a sharper 4 – 6-week sell-off – into August 2024. (That is also what occurred in 1990 AND 1973, the previous phases of the 17-Year Cycle.)
The Nasdaq 100 is also fulfilling multiple timing indicators focused on July 2024 for a multi-month peak.
In 2020/2021, the Nasdaq 100 surged for ~20 months before peaking.
In 2024, the Nasdaq 100 has now surged for ~20 months from its October 2022 bottom into July 2024.
That ~20-month advance was split into successive… advances (Oct ‘22 into July ‘23 and October 2023 into July 2024) with a pullback in between.
Stock Indices are fulfilling a web of upside targets, wave objectives, and monthly resistance levels – most notably at 5661 – 5697/ESU & 20,642 – 20,775/NQU. As described last week, their intra-month uptrends projected rallies into ~mid-month (July 12 – 16th) and to monthly resistance levels.
That was fulfilled and the NQ-100 has since twice neutralized its daily uptrend. It needs a daily close below 20,335/NQU to turn that trend down (and close below its daily 21 High MAC) – signaling a top.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are setting decisive peaks projected for mid-July 2024, in sync with overall 17-Year Cycle analysis and parallels. The NQ-100 is reinforcing expectations for similarities to 2007, in line with the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks (decisive peaks in July 2007 AND July 2024). Several timing indicators also projected a critical top for July 2024… and a sharp drop into August 2024! That peak has (likely) just taken hold!
A key ‘proxy’ or ‘cue’ stock (a stock that often gives advanced signs of shifts in a broader market) fulfilled a (multi-month) peak projected for June 17 – 21st at/near 140.0/NVDA. It is already pinpointing primary multi-month downside targets (below 97.0/NVDA)… that would involve a serious sell-off in this and other tech stocks leading into August ‘24.
A secondary high was projected for July 8 – 12th and was just fulfilled with similar precision. It generated a new sell signal and should trigger a larger sell-off in that proxy stock into August 2024, taking the NQ-100 along with it… in perfect sync with the 17-Year Cycle!
How Does Divergent Peak on July 8 – 12th Reinforce Outlook for Sharp July/August ’24 Decline?
Why Does 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Forecast Pivotal NQ + SP 500 Highs for July 2024?
Will This Corroborate the Projected 2025/26 Recession (& Stagflation) Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.