NYSE Trigger New Sell Signal & Escalation of Decline; Aug. ’19 Could Mimic Aug. 2015 as Stocks Enter Danger Period! China Stocks Give Clue as to Impetus.
07/27/19 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock Indices are hovering near their July highs with the NYSE Index signaling another short-term top now and another 3 – 5 day sell-off to follow. However, since equities will be entering Aug. ’19 – the month projected as the most precarious in 2019 for over two years – a 3 – 5 day sell-off could escalate into something larger…
Stock Indices remain near their highs with the main indexes adhering to their daily trend patterns and rallying to new highs. They continue to provide some basic parallels to 2015, during which several key stocks and indices peaked in May ’15 (as some did in May ’19) to start the topping process.
That was followed by a sequence of highs set in other stocks and indexes, each time producing some divergence (where some indexes set higher highs as others set lower/secondary highs).
The strongest markets waited until late-July/early-Aug. ’15 before setting final peaks. They then suffered a sharp sell-off in August, bottoming in late-Aug. ’15.
The same is (so far) true in May – Aug. ’19. It began with the DJTA peaking in late-April and then the Russell 2000 peaking in early-May. Bellwether stocks like AAPL & NFLX also peaked in early-May. The Shanghai Composite also peaked in April ’19.
(There are two reasons I mention Chinese stocks. One is that they led the 2015 sell-off, with the Shanghai peaking in June ’15 and then losing ~40% within a few months.
The second is that they reflect repercussions from the ongoing trade war and could ultimately create a contagion – but only if they suffered a more significant decline… in August?)
Various stocks have set a sequence of highs since May ’19, although the most noteworthy indexes have all set highs in July…
Stock indexes reversed higher in sync with their daily trend patterns, which projected rallies to new highs. One exception was the NYA, which did turn its daily trend down – projecting a reactive bounce into July 24 – 26. A 7 – 8 trading day/12 calendar-day low-low-high-high-high-high Cycle Progression reinforced that, projecting a daily cycle peak on July 24 – 26. Its daily trend eventually zeroed in on July 26/29 as the most likely time for a daily peak… The S+P is increasing the synergy around 2920/ESU, a potential sell-off objective.”
NYSE projects July 29 – Aug. 2/5 sell-off and likely start of projected August plunge in stocks. DJ Industrials reinforce projected sell-off from mid-July into Aug. 19 – 30 (daily cycles should hone this to more specific dates). 40-Year Cycle & 4-Year Cycle project increasing trouble in/around Aug. ‘19… with a Aug. ’15-style sell-off becoming increasingly more likely! Why could August ’19 look like Aug. 15?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.