October 6 Buy Signal in Gold Nearing Fruition; Mid-Nov ’23 = Future Cycle Low.
10-25-23 – “Since May ’23, when Gold & Silver fulfilled projections for multi-month peaks, there have been two primary expectations for a subsequent (future) rally [reserved for subscribers]…
Part of that had to do with wave structure.
Part of that had to do with the monthly trend patterns.
Part of that had to do with monthly 21 MARC setup.
Part of that, eventually, had to do with the weekly 21 MARC setup.
Part of that had to do with monthly & weekly cycles – highs and lows.
Part of that (a smaller part) had to do with correlated cycles in other markets and/or geopolitics.
Part of that (a larger part) had to do with the tendency of Gold & Silver to adhered to the 90/10 Rule of Cycles.
Part of that had to do with potential symmetry between previous accelerated advances.
Most of that had to do with the synergy of all those factors and how closely they were coinciding and projecting the same thing for the same time period.
Gold & Silver bottomed in sync with weekly & monthly cycle lows in early-Oct ’23, which were initially validated when Gold triggered an outside-day/2 Close Reversal buy signal on Oct 6, ’23… after bottoming right at weekly support without turning its intra-month trend down.
Now that a sizeable chunk of those advances has been seen, and the time for a potential peak is drawing near, it is important to reiterate remaining expectations and/or new factors that have come into play.
Gold has been targeting an overall surge from the low 1800’s (1809/GC, basis the continuous-contract) up to ~2070/GC. Evolving action has powerfully validated that, adding reinforcing objectives & price targets at or surrounding 2070/GCZ…
Monthly 21 MARCs also identified Oct ’23 as the ideal time for Gold & Silver to rally sharply. That was later corroborated – in July & Aug ’23 – by weekly 21 MARCs identifying the weeks beginning in late-Sept and continuing through October ’23 as the ideal time for Gold & Silver to experience an accelerated rally.
Since their early-May ’23 peaks, Gold, Silver and the XAU & HUI Indexes had been forecast to retrace to their 4th wave of lesser degree support before an intervening bottom would be most likely.
The GLD ETF provided the most precise fulfillment (ETFs are sometimes more precise since they are like an ongoing continuous contract) – dropping right to its downside target (168.19/168.35; early-Oct ‘23 low was 168.30/GLD) as Gold & Silver attacked related levels.
From a timing perspective, the Oct 2 – 6, ’23 low in Silver completed a .618 retracement in time – 35 weeks up & 22 weeks down – while fulfilling an ~11-week high-high-(low) Cycle Progression AND a ~15-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. That was the same time of year Gold set its lowest weekly close in 2022 – a 1-year/~360-degree cycle from its ~Oct ’22 major bottom…
To reiterate, the rally from early-March into early-May ‘23 saw Gold gain about 246.0/GCZ. A similar-magnitude rally from the early-Oct ’23 low of 1823.5/ GCZ projects a surge to/above 2069.4/GCZ…
2072/GC is the continuous-contract high set in early-March ’22 AND early-May ’23.
In 2020 & 2022, Gold began sharp 3 – 5-week, 14 – 15% surges from lows of 1807 & 1809/GC. The current rally – on the same continuous-contract weekly chart – began after a low at 1809/GC.
In both of the former cases, Gold surged 14 – 15% in the final 3 – 5 weeks of the cycle. In 2016, as Gold was accelerating into the first peak of its new bull market, it surged 14 – 15% in the final 3 – 5 weeks of its cycle.
A 14% surge in Dec Gold projects a rally to 2078/GCZ.
From a broader perspective, Gold & Silver are paralleling the action of 2016 (when the previous wave ‘I’ & ‘II’ of a larger-magnitude advance unfolded… similar to what is perceived to be occurring now).
In 2016, Gold & Silver rallied for 7 – 8 months before selling off for the ensuing ~5 months.
In 2022/2023, Gold & Silver rallied for 7 – 8 months before selling off for the ensuing ~5 months.
In 2016, Gold retraced 70 – 75% of its initial rally during that ~5-month sell-off.
In 2023, Gold retraced 70 – 75% of its initial rally during this ~5-month sell-off…
The XAU & HUI remain bullish and likely to rally to 130 – 133/XAU & 251 – 254/HUI. That would fulfill monthly LHRs (extreme upside targets for October ‘23), weekly 21 High MACs AND MARCs, weekly LHRs (extreme upside targets for these two weeks), .618 rebounds, monthly 40 Low MARCs, and corroborating indicators.
This comes after the XAU & HUI set lows in early-Oct ’23, fulfilling similar-magnitude AND duration declines (‘c = a’ on a price & time basis) – likely completing wave ‘II’ declines and setting the stage for a more significant advance to begin taking hold.
They (and Gold & Silver) fulfilled a 12.5 – 13.5-month/ ~54 – 59-week cycle that has created a high (Aug ‘19) – high (Aug ‘20) – low (Aug/Sept ‘21) – low (Sept ‘22) – (low; Oct ’23) Cycle Progression – portending a multi-month bottom for early-Oct ’23.
At the same time, their weekly 21 MARCs pinpointed the weeks of Oct 2 – 6 through Oct 30 – Nov 3 as the ideal time for accelerated surges as that (inversely-correlated) indicator would plummet. They are fulfilling that potential and need weekly closes above 119.32/XAU & 233.88/HUI to reverse their weekly trends up.
The weekly trends AND weekly 21 MACs have strong potential to reverse up on Nov 3 (weekly trends could reverse up on Oct 27), which would likely occur near the culmination of this initial surge.”
Gold & Silver (and XAU/HUI) are fulfilling ongoing projections (since May ’23) for a sharp multi-week rally in 4Q ’23 as metals enter the time when major advances are forecast. Middle East War Cycles returned in October ’23 and were powerfully fulfilled, spurring this latest surge in metals. An intermediate high could hold for a few weeks before a new surge takes metals higher in December ’23 & the first half of January 2024.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! This should have a dramatic impact on the US Dollar and could coincide with a pullback in interest rates.
Why & When is Gold Likely to Attack 2070/GC… and Potentially ~2130/GC?
How Do Early-October ’23 Cycle Lows Reinforce 2024 Outlook?
Why Do They Project Subsequent Surges into Dec ‘23/Jan ’24?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts as well as discussion on why, how & when Gold is most likely to break out to the upside following a multi-year ‘flat correction’.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.