Oil Markets Holding Intermediate Support
Oil Markets Holding Intermediate Support
Rally Back to Jan. Highs Likely…
Watch Late-March Cycle High for Peak.
02/24/18 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil extended their rebounds, reinforcing the significance of the lows set in early-Feb. In doing so, Crude rallied above its initial rebound target and ultimately neutralized its intra-month downtrend.
Crude has also twice neutralized its daily downtrend and needs a daily close above 63.73/CLJ to reverse that trend to up.
Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have turned their daily trends up but been unable to neutralize their intra-month downtrends. All three remain in descending daily 21 MACs.
More than anything, this reinforces congestion and the likelihood that the January highs will hold, at least through March. They could be retested, based on the weekly trend patterns, but the overall 3 – 6 month outlook remains unchanged.
The Energy Complex triggered initial multi-month buy signals in July 2017 and then reinforced them in Oct. 2017. That was projected to spur an overall, 6 – 7 month rally into Jan. 2018, when multi-month cycles peaked.
That was fulfilled and spurred a sharp sell-off to critical wave support levels, linked to their Nov. & Dec. lows. They fulfilled initial downside targets with Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil reaching their Dec. ’17 lows as Crude held support at the level of multiple (a series of 4) previous highs – resistance turned into support – at 58.27 – 58.66/CLJ.
That spurred the current rebound, which appears more likely to be a ‘b’ wave bounce before a ‘c’ wave decline. If that is to be the case, these oil markets should not close above their January peaks.”
Oil markets continue to bounce after fulfilling their intermediate downside targets while maintaining positive weekly trend patterns. Those weekly trends increase the likelihood for a retest of the January 2018 highs – leading into late-March when an ~8-week cycle projects the next important peak.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.