Oil & Middle East Cycles

07/29/17 INSIIDE Track:

“Outlook 2017-2018

07-29-17 – The months of August & September have the potential to see a resurgence of global challenges.  I use the term ’challenges’ to prevent hyperbole, but there are multiple cycles – in and out of the markets – with negative connotations for 3Q 2017…

One of those is in Crude Oil and has been discussed since late-2015.  A brief synopsis of the outlook has been that Crude would plummet from mid-2014 (a consistent 3-year cycle high) into early-2016 – when Cru-Ca-Ble cycles bottomed…

All three oil-related markets did plummet from mid-2014 into late-2015 and all three did bottom in 1Q 2016 – in the month of January.  Since then, all three have been tracing out a bottoming pattern – remaining above those Jan. ‘16 lows but not mounting any significant advances beyond normal 2–3 month intermediate rallies…

The reason for discussing this is to preface an ongoing discussion that involves the other third of this and the continued focus on Sept./Oct. 2017…

Israel/Jerusalem Cycles

Continuing a discussion that has gone on for two decades, 2017–2018 marks a momentous shift in cycles governing Jerusalem, Israel and by association, the Middle East.  (Several related Middle East, Islamic & Turkish cycles also collide in 2019.)

Similar to Sept. 2000–Sept. 2001, the Jewish Year of 5761, the period of Sept. 2017–Sept. 2018 (5778) is expected to time seismic shifts – one 17-Year Cycle later.  In the corresponding tables, I am synopsizing several of the most significant cycles that contribute to this analysis.  However, they are just the tip of the iceberg.  And this time, they have multiple market cycles appearing to corroborate them.  Let the challenges begin!

2017–2018 Middle East/Israel Cycle Convergence

— 17-Year Cycle from 2000 Intifada.

— 25-Year Cycle Progression from Six Days War (recapture of E. Jerusalem in 1967) to Jerusalem Covenant (1992) to Jerusalem??? (2017).

— 40-Year Cycle from 1897/1898 (First Zionist Congress) to 1937/1938 (Holocaust; began with stamping of ‘J’ on passports, first introduction of ‘Final Solution’ and opening of Buchenwald Concentration Camp) to 1977/1978 (Camp David Accord, Israel/Lebanon, Iran/Islamic Revolution – leading into/through 1979) to 2017/2018.

— 50 Year Cycle (Jubilee, Sabbath’s Sabbath) from Six Days War (1967) and from events of 1917 & 1517 – when Jerusalem was liberated & previously conquered.  This cycle dates back to 67(–70) AD – when Jews revolted against Rome & Jerusalem was sacked – and includes 1867, when the Austria-Hungary Empire was formed & Jews received full rights.  That ‘Empire’ only lasted 1 50-Year Cycle but had a Major impact on WWI (and WWII).

— 60-Year Cycle from Economic Council of the Arab League agreement in 1957.

— 70-Year Cycle from UN Resolution 181 (Partition Plan for Palestine) & Israeli independence & statehood (1947/1948; which was 70-Year Cycle from First Aliyah & Jewish settlements in Palestine in 1877/78… which was 70 years from the Perushim immigration of 1808 – to set up Jerusalem as the Torah capital of the world).  2017 is 70 years – the ‘Cycle of Kings’ – from the ‘Special International Regime’ for Jerusalem, laid out in UN 181.

— 100 years from liberation of Jerusalem (1917).

— 180 years from British involvement with Jerusalem (1837–1942; consulate, first diplomatic appt., plan for Jewish restoration; political Zionism).

— 500 years from Ottoman conquering of Jerusalem (1517).

— 1,000 years from founding of Druze religion (1017) – one of the primary religions in the Levant (ISIL – also known as ISIS – takes its name from ‘Islamic State in the Levant’)… an intriguing almalgamation of Christianity, Judaism & Ismailism (branch of Shia Islam) – originally derived from Islam.

2017–2019 (–2021) is the recurrence of an uncanny 100-Year & 500-Year Cycle that is very religious and usually incorporates Europe & the Vatican with events in the Middle East.  It also times watershed events in Protestanism since 1517.

Momentous religious events, often incorporating both Christianity & Jerusalem, occurred in 517–519 (resolution of Acacian Schism), 1017 (Druze religion), 1217–1220 (Pope seeking to recover Holy Land), 1417 (resolution of Great Schism), 1517 (Martin Luther’s 95 Theses, leading to Protestanism), 1617 (Ferdinand II seeking to restore Catholicism as only religion in Roman Empire; led to Thirty Years War of 1618–1648), 1717 (Freemasons emerge as guardians of Jerusalem), 1817 (Evangelical Church) & 1917 (liberation of Jerusalem & Balfour Declaration – to establish a homeland for Jews, in Palestine).”

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Middle East cycles are powerfully reinforcing the 1 – 2 year outlook for Crude, in which cycles should turn bullish in Sept./Oct. 2017 and spur an overall advance into Sept. 2018.  Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil already confirmed that (at least) a likely 6–12 month bottom is in place (June 2017) and a corresponding advance is underway.  That rally should resume after a 2–4 week period of consolidation – by early-Sept. – reaffirming the focus on Sept./Oct. 2017 to usher in a bullish period in oil markets & a tumultuous period in the Middle East.  The first phase (for energy markets) could last into early-2018.

See Jan – Mar. 2017 INSIIDE Tracks for analysis pertaining to Saudi Arabia, Turkey & Israel as well as other key Middle East nations.  These all focus on the potential for Middle East challenges from late-Sept. ’17 into late-Sept. ’18, coinciding with a bull market in the energy sector – into 3Q ‘18.

See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.