Precious Metals Poised for New Surges into 3Q 2019! Late-May/early-June = Key Decision Point. How High Will Silver & XAU Rally (into Aug. ’19)?
05/08/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – The China Syndrome: “Exactly 40 years after the movie of that name (dealing with a potential nuclear meltdown), the markets are confronted with a different kind of China Syndrome – one that involves the potential for a trade war meltdown.
[Not to be lost in that discussion, two weeks after the China Syndrome was released in 1979, the Three Mile Island nuclear disaster occurred. Is it ironic that a pair of nuclear challenges – Iran and North Korea – are now injecting uncertainty into the markets, one 40-Year Cycle later?]
If one were to rely on the latest rhetoric, it would appear the trade war is about to be ramped up… dramatically. However, the rhetoric rarely reflects reality in this administration… so there is still some uncertainty.
That does NOT mean the tariffs will not rise to 25% on Friday or that the trade war will not be escalated… but the majority of the rhetoric is usually for negotiating.
So, where does that leave traders?…
Gold & Silver briefly rebounded but Gold needs a daily close above 1290.9/GCM – and Silver a daily close above 14.995/SIN – to elevate this bounce and project a rally into May 13/14, the next phase of that 12 trading-day low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
On a multi-week basis, the focus remains on May 28 – 31 for the next intermediate high. That is the next phase of a ~7-week low-low-low-high-high-high-(
The XAU turned its weekly trend down, increasing the likelihood for lower highs during the next intermediate cycle peak in late-May. Paradoxically, this trend reversal also identifies the most likely time for a multi-week low in the XAU (this week) and a 1 – 3 week bounce (that could last into May 28 – 31, if corroborating indicators confirm).
A daily close above 71.52/XAU is needed to turn the intra-month trend up and give the first sign of a developing, multi-week low. Until then, the XAU is at risk of spiking down to monthly support at 65.85 – 67.30.
1 – 4 week traders could have re-entered long positions in the XAU (and/or related vehicles) down to … [reserved for subscribers]”
Precious metals are corroborating the outlook for a new surge from April into 3Q 2019 – in line with weekly & monthly cycles. The next phase of the 13 – 14 week Cycle Progression (after May 28 – 31) projects a subsequent high for Aug. 26 – Sept. 6, ’19. Silver remains the ‘weaker sister’ and is still capable of spiking as low as 14.350/SI before bottoming and projecting a rally to new intra-year highs.
3 – 6 month Gold traders were just triggered back into long positions near 1270.0/GC in preparation for a new multi-month rally. XAU traders were also triggered into long positions. A bottoming phase should now unfold, with cycles expected to turn more decidedly bullish leading into late-May/early-June – when the weekly trend pattern should be decisive.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.