Rising Instability Underpins Gold; Silver Remains Corrective as Bitcoin Signals Peak.
01-30-25 – “Outlook 2025 Connections… and Disruptions
2025 has been forecast to be a time of rising instability – in the markets & outside of them, beneath the Earth’s surface & above it, in the US & around the globe. Cyclically speaking, it has been projected – for many years – to be the time when a seismic shift in the global order accelerates (see related publications).
The year 2025 includes the overlap of major multi-year, multi-decade & multi-generational cycles – some commencing, some culminating & many colliding.
It ushers in a ~5-year period (2025 – 2029) that includes a myriad of global-unifying cycles reaching fruition and entering tumultuous transition phases. One of them is likely to be off readers’ radars (until now)…
The 1%; Communication Connectivity
This cycle has to do with the information and communication inter-connectivity of the world. And, contrary to what this title implies, it is actually the 99% (estimates vary from 95 – 99%) that is the focus of this cycle.
While it may come as a surprise to some, 95 – 99% of global data traffic is carried not by satellites or other space-based apparatus but by undersea (submarine) cables on the ocean floor.
That’s right… all but 1 – 5% of transcontinental internet traffic, financial transactions and military transmissions are carried by undersea cables.
Not surprisingly, the evolution of this continent-to-continent connectivity has followed a consistent 17-Year Cycle and all started 170 years ago… with some uncanny parallels to the current year(s).
At that time, in 1854/1855, the British laid underwater telegraph cables from Varna (Bulgaria) to Crimea in order to facilitate faster information dissemination about a war. Ironically, the original pretense for the Crimean War of 1853 – 1856 was the rights of Christian minorities in Palestine (Hmmm).
That war was a major embarrassment for the Russian Empire when the allied forces of Britain, France and the Ottoman Empire defeated her… 2014 also timed a precise 360-year cycle from 1654, when Eastern Ukraine was incorporated into the tsardom of Russia after the Cossack Uprising… leading into a period of war between Russia & Lithuania/Poland from 1654 – 1667. The related 360-year cycle culminates in 2027 and has been validated by Russian aggression toward those nations.
Accidents or Attacks?
In recent months, serious communication disruptions have occurred as a result of damaged or severed undersea cables. Most recently were the ‘Baltic Sea ruptures’ in Nov ‘24 and the Vezhen incident of late-Jan ‘25. The question is whether any of these – and other – incidents have been intentional.
The US believes the Russian vessel ‘Yantar’ is a mothership for a fleet of deep-water submersibles… that just happens to be repeatedly observed very close to submarine cable locations around the globe.
Is this just another giant coincidence?
This is just one of many factors that could fulfill the 8-Year Cycle of Attacks & 80-Year Cycle of War – both culminating in 2025. Stay tuned…
Multi-year trend in Gold & Silver is positive, reinforcing projections for major lows in late-2022 and strong multi-year advances to follow (the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War)…
Gold & Silver are displaying another round of divergence with Gold retesting its high – fulfilling its weekly trend pattern – as Silver rebounds to a lower high, in line with its contrasting weekly downtrend. As long as Gold does not give a weekly close above its late-October high, it will remain in a multi-month trading range.
Both metals fulfilled multi-month cycle highs in late-October ’24 and entered what was projected to be a multi-month corrective/consolidation phase in preparation for a new impulse wave higher. The longer-term trends & outlook remain positive.
The late-Oct ’24 cycle highs included an uncanny ~12.5 month/~54-week high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression that was expected to usher in a multi-month top while – at the same time – projecting a future 3 – 6 month peak for Oct/Nov 2025.
The midpoint of that cycle – a 27 – 28-week cycle – projects an intervening Gold peak for the first half of May 2025, the fulfillment of a ~28-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. That remains the outlook for the coming months…
Gold was not originally expected to reach new highs this soon but re-entered its weekly uptrend on January 17th and quickly broke above its ~2-month trading range in the subsequent days… ultimately leading to the recent spike high. The January 31st weekly/monthly close needs to clarify this.
Silver rallied in a clear 5-wave formation (a likely, overall ‘III’ wave advance) – leading into its late-Oct ‘24 peak – and was perceived to be tracing out a likely ‘a-b-c’ correction. That, as described in recent months, would likely be completing a larger-magnitude wave ‘4’ (or ‘IV’) of the overall advance from the late-2022 low.
That would reinforce the outlook for another strong rally in 2025 and pave the way for a wave ‘5’/’V’ advance into (at least) Oct/Nov 2025.
Silver’s decline was projected to last, at the very least, 11 weeks in duration and attack multi-month support at ~28.50/SIH. Its initial decline lasted 10 weeks and bottomed just above 29.00/SIH while turning its weekly trend down.
(Gold was forecast to drop to 2550/GC… it made it to 2565/GCG in the Feb contract while hitting 2541/GCZ in the Dec ‘24 contract…)
That ushered in some uncertainty as to whether Silver completed its multi-month correction… or only completed the first (‘A’) wave of it. The weekly trend signal – a lagging and confirming indicator that is usually triggered near the bottom of an initial decline – argues for the latter.
That indicator projects a (often immediate) multi-week reactive rebound to quickly take hold… and then be followed by another decline. In other words, it argues for an ‘A’ wave low followed by a ‘B’ wave bounce and then a ‘C’ wave decline…
The most important aspect of the outlook for Gold & Silver is to keep these 1 – 3 month potentials in the context of the broader bullish trends and outlook. Gold & Silver perpetuated a ~7-year low (4Q ‘01) – low (4Q ‘08) – low (4Q ‘15) – low (4Q ‘22) Cycle Progression in October ‘22 and have been projected to undergo a multi-year advance that could ultimately last into 2026 or later.
The XAU & HUI have rallied after attacking their August lows, the first level of 3 – 6 month support following their October 21/22nd highs. They turned their weekly trends back up and have rallied into late-month while rebounding 50% and testing the weekly 21 High MAC.
Beginning on February 3 – 7th, the corresponding (but inversely-correlated) weekly 21 MARCs will surge for several weeks – the ideal time and setup for a new decline to take hold…
Platinum is poised to turn its weekly trend up, the first confirming sign that a multi-month bottom has taken hold. That was/is expected to spur an overall advance into June/July 2025 – the convergence of a large number of weekly, monthly and multi-year cycles.
On a broader basis, Platinum could rally into 2026 – a 50% rebound in time (12 years down/6 years up) and the latest phase of a ~5-year high (2011) – high (2016) – high (2021) – (high; 2026) Cycle Progression that parallels the Silver outlook. The recent low completed another ‘a-b-c’ decline and corroborated the outlook for a 1Q/2Q ‘25 rally.
Palladium remains above its August ‘24 low and turned its weekly trend up while preparing to give a weekly close above the rising weekly 21 High MAC. This initially validates the outlook for a bullish 1Q 2025 that could ultimately spur a rally back to 1600/PA. An initial high is likely in [reserved for subscribers].
Copper rallied after fulfilling analysis for a drop to its Aug ’24 low. It twice neutralized its weekly downtrend but would not turn that trend up until a weekly close above 4.470/HGH…
The Dollar Index remains positive while reinforcing its late-Sept ‘24 bottom that perpetuated a ~3.25-year/~39 – 40 month cycle that has governed the Dollar Index for 3 – 4 decades (from the May 2021 low). It also fulfilled an 80 – 81-month low (May 2011) – low (Jan/Feb 2018) – (low; Sept/Oct 2024) Cycle Progression at that time.
The monthly charts projected a secondary peak in January ‘25, which may have taken hold. It peaked in mid-Jan. – completing back-to-back advances of equal duration (16 weeks each) and perpetuating an ~8-week low-low-high-low-high Cycle Sequence. It would not confirm that peak, and remove the potential for an additional spike high, until a weekly close below 106.50/DXH.
The Euro fulfilled the outlook for an overall decline into January ’25, when a multi-month low became a much higher probability. It dropped into Jan 13th, precisely fulfilling a ~5-week low-high-high-high-high-high-(
A future low is likely during the week of Feb 17 – 21, ’25… 5 weeks later. The intervening action should clarify whether that would be a higher or lower low. A low at any time in this 2-month period would also perpetuate a 28 – 29-month high-high-low-low-(low; Jan/Feb ’25) Cycle Progression.
The Euro surged to its weekly LHR on January 24th (and held) portending a likely peak in late-January.
The Yen dropped into early-January and fulfilled the potential to spike down to its July 2024 low. It remains near that vital support and would not show any signs of a multi-week low until a daily close above .6510/JYH.
On a broader basis, the Yen bottomed in precise sync with its 17-Year Cycle (from its 2Q 2007 low) – attacking its 1990 low (~.6250/JY, from two 17-Year Cycles ago) where it set a major low. That argues for the July ’24 low to continue holding…
Bitcoin & Ether are diverging as Bitcoin briefly spiked to a new all-time high but did not close above its previous December ‘24 peak.
It fulfilled almost all of what was expected from a wave ‘V’ rally (see chart in Dec ‘24 INSIIDE Track) that originated at the wave ‘IV’ low in July/August ‘24 – in precise sync with its ~10-month high-low-low-low-(low; July/Aug ’24) Cycle Progression.
That spurred a multi-month surge into Nov/Dec 2024 – the same time of year in which Bitcoin set major highs in 2017 & 2021 and intervening lows in 2018 & 2022.
In doing so, Bitcoin fulfilled another form of wave similarity – rallying for the same magnitude ($55,00 – $60,000/BT) as it did in March ‘20 – April ‘21 AND in Nov ‘22 – March ‘24.
The peak near 108,000/BT precisely matched the magnitude of its previous (‘22 – ‘24) advance.
Bitcoin just set its highest daily close exactly 6 months from a previous high daily close (July 22nd) and may have completed a ‘wave 5’ rally. It would take a daily close below 98,000/BT to confirm.”
Gold, Silver & XAU remain divergent as Gold reinforces its multi-month & multi-year uptrend while Silver rebounds in a broader correction from its Oct ’24 peak. The late-October ’24 Gold peak reinforces future Gold cycle highs in early-May & early-Nov ’25 while the weekly trend pattern corroborates that Gold remains in an overall uptrend. Meanwhile, Bitcoin & Ether are fulfilling the outlook for a multi-month downturn to take hold in January 2025. They could drop as low as [reserved for subscribers].
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
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