Silver Attacks 16.03/SI Target
02/13/16 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver continue to accelerate their advances, fulfilling expectations for an initial 11–12 week (ideally longer) advance from their Dec. lows. A high (an initial one) in Feb. would validate multiple weekly & monthly cycles… while setting the stage for a subsequent advance, later on.
Crucial price objectives were hit on Feb. 11th, ushering in the possibility for a peak at any time. Based on the weekly trend pattern in Silver, however, there is still the potential for some further upside in the coming week(s)… before a pullback.
All of this further reinforces expectations that 2016 would be The Golden Year, beginning with a powerful surge in Gold & Silver.
One of the final affirmations to this potential occurred in December, when Silver set a Major bottom, fulfilling multiple yearly & monthly cycles while forming a bullish wedge… and then triggered a 3–6 month buy signal on Dec. 11/14th.
Silver was expected to see a surge to its monthly LHR in February – at 15.550/SIH… and up to its first wave objective (Dec. ’15–Feb. ’16 rally = Aug.–Oct. ’15 rally = Mar.–May ’15 rally) at 16.030/SIH. That has just been fulfilled…
In doing so, Silver has created 3 successive, ~2-month rallies of ~$2.40/oz each. In order to confirm expectations for much more upside – later in 2016 – Silver needs to exceed that target to confirm that a larger-degree advance is in its formative stages. That ‘exceeding’ could come now… or after an intervening pullback.
Gold has been the stronger metal, triggering revealing 4-Shadow signals in October – honing expectations for early-2016.
In order to take that to the next level and confirm 2016 as The Golden Year (when the largest advance in at least 3 years would be seen) – Gold needed to exceed the previous rally of one higher degree – the Dec. ’13–Mar. ’14 rally from 1181.4/GC to 1392.6/GC.
To accomplish that feat, Gold needed to rally from 1046.4/GCJ to 1257.7/GCJ. It made it up to 1263.9/GCJ, exceeding that advance and adding reinforcement to the outlook for 2016. As a result, Gold has fulfilled the initial projection for 2016 – the largest advance in over 3 years.
It would need to extend this advance to >$270/oz. in order to make it the largest advance in over 4 years. Between Sept. 2011 & Oct. 2012, Gold experienced 3 successive rallies of near equal magnitude, each of which was right around $270/oz. A surge above ~1315.0/GC is needed to achieve & exceed those.
That is the most intriguing objective, since 1307.8/GC was the 2015 peak. Gold would need to exceed that level to create the first inter-year higher high (year-to-year uptrend) since 2011.
This past week’s surges also had Gold & Silver attacking their weekly LHRs (1252.4/GCJ & 16.100/SIH)… increasing the potential for a peak before the end of February.
3–6 month & 6–12 month traders and investors should have entered long positions in Gold & Silver in mid-Dec. (at ~1046–1076/GC & 13.62–13.88/SIH) and should hold them until [reserved for subscribers only]...
Traders should have exited another 1/4 of Gold longs on Feb. 11th between ~1210.0–1260.0/GCJ – w/avg. gains of about $160–170/oz or ~$16,000–$17,000/contract.
Traders should have also exited 1/4–1/3 of Silver longs around 15.400/SIH – w/avg. gains of about $1.65/oz or ~$8,200/contract.
Exit another 1/4 of Silver longs if/when Silver hits 16.000/SIH. These will potentially be re-established after an intermediate pullback.
The XAU has completed a similar, higher-degree 4-Shadow signal, rallying slightly more than the Nov. ’14–Jan. ’15 advance. It continues to exhibit strength after perpetuating a ~30-degree high (Sept. 18th)–high (Oct. 15/16th)–low (Nov. 17/18th)–low (Dec. 17th)–low (Jan. 19th) Cycle Progression.
A weekly close above 60.76/XAU is now necessary to turn the weekly trend up and confirm a multi-month bottom…
Gold & Silver surged during the second week of Feb., achieving key upside objectives during the past week. Silver now needs a weekly close above 15.990/SIH to turn its weekly trend up and confirm a multi-quarter bottom.
1–4 week traders should have been long March Silver 14.750 call options from 12–14.0 & exited ½ at 64.0…The other ½ should have been exited at 75.0…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK. See Hypothetical Trading Disclaimers.
Gold & Silver’s attack key price objectives but need to extend these advances beyond February in order to confirm 4-Shadow timing targets… and validate outlook for the remainder of 2016. 1315.0/GC = Key Level for Gold, during next advance.