Silver Confirms Relative Weakness as Gold Trend/Outlook Remains Bullish.
12-21-24 – “Gold & Silver remain in consolidation below their late-October highs – peaks that fulfilled multi-month cycles including an uncanny ~12.5 month/~54-week high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression – signaling a likely 2 – 3 (or 3 – 6) month top.
Gold has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times but would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 2565/GCG. Silver is now a little different, having just turned its weekly trend down – confirming the late-October peak.
On an intermediate basis, the early-Dec highs completed ‘B’ wave rallies and projected ‘C’ wave declines that would likely stretch into late-Dec/early-Jan ‘25. Silver cycles corroborate…
During the 5-wave advance from early-Oct ’23, Silver experienced two multi-month corrections – the wave ‘2’ & wave ‘4’ declines – that were close to equal… both ~11 weeks in duration.
The sell-off that preceded that entire 5-wave advance – the drop from May ’23 into early-Oct ’23 (perceived to be a higher magnitude ‘2’ or ‘II’ wave) lasted 22 weeks in duration… exactly what might be expected in the contrast between those two distinct magnitudes or degrees of corrective waves.
If the late-October ’24 peak was a wave ‘III’ peak – as is currently perceived – the current ‘A-B-C’ decline would likely be related to all those previous sell-offs. At the very least, it should last ~11 weeks in duration – which would have it bottoming on Jan 6 – 10, 2025. An overall drop into January 6 – 10, ’25 would fulfill…
- Three successive declines of ~11 weeks each.
- 100% correction (in time) of recent ~11-week advance**.
- 50% of previous (higher magnitude) ~22-week correction. As an overall wave progresses, and accelerates, the comparable waves often become shorter in duration but larger in magnitude.
- Geometric (~1-month/~30-degree) cycles from previous lows on August 8th, Sept 6/9th & Oct 8th.
**The recent ~11-week advance from August 8th into October 22nd consumed 52 trading days. The ensuing ‘A’ wave decline consumed 1/3 of that time – dropping for 17 trading days into Nov 14th. The subsequent rally has lasted 18 trading days, as of December 11th… another 1/3 of that cycle.
That allowed the precise amount of time for the ‘C’ wave decline to consume the remaining 1/3 of that cycle and match the duration of the ‘A’ wave decline if it sells off into January 7/8th (17 – 18 trading days) before setting a low.
Reinforcing that scenario, Silver dropped from Oct 22/23 into Nov 27/29 – a decline of 26 – 27 trading days. 26 – 27 trading days after the Nov 27/29 low is Jan 7 – 9, 2025 – potentially creating an overlapping high-low-(low) Cycle Progression. That was reinforced with an intervening low on Dec 18/19th – the midpoint of that low-low cycle…
Gold & Silver resumed their declines and fulfilled analysis for declines into December 17 – 19th, when initial 1 – 2 week lows were likely to take hold. That has occurred but still leaves open the potential for subsequent spike lows in late-December/early-January.
The XAU & HUI resumed their declines after fulfilling cycle highs that peaked on October 21/ 22nd while perpetuating an ~18-week low-low-low-low-(high; Oct 21 – 25, 2024) Cycle Progression and many other cycles.
The XAU & HUI turned their weekly trends down, reinforcing the overall outlook for a likely drop to 130 – 133/XAU (multiple targets & support levels converge near 132.50/XAU) and ~260/ HUI. That was reinforced by the weekly 21 Low MACs turning down as those indexes gave weekly closes below those levels on Dec. 6th.”
Gold, Silver & XAU are fulfilling projected sell-offs into late-Dec/early-January as they all prepare for new rallies in the coming year when cycles turn positive in early-January ‘25. Gold remains in a positive weekly trend (Silver turned down), increasing the potential for a new advance in 2025 as described throughout past months…
11-23-24 – “Gold bottomed slightly above extreme downside support while creating the largest decline since May – Oct ‘23, a sell-off that Gold just matched in magnitude (~260.0/GC declines in both cases) with its latest sell-off. Gold has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times and would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 2541/GCZ.
As long as that does not occur, Gold is poised to enter a new wave higher… That would pave the way for a wave ‘5’/’V’ advance into (at least) Oct/Nov 2025. The similar-magnitude decline in Gold corroborates that wave potential.” — Nov 23, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay
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The late-October high reinforces future Gold cycle highs in early-Feb, early-May & early-Nov ’25 while the weekly trend pattern corroborates that Gold remains in an overall uptrend.
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