Silver Peaking; Gold Pausing; Both Reinforce 2023/24 Outlook.
01/05/23 INSIIDE Track – Outlook 2023 – The Year of Disruptions?
“2022 fulfilled a myriad of cycle projections – including a major top and sell-off in the stock market, a crypto meltdown, skyrocketing inflation & interest rates, a culminating surge in the US Dollar (potentially stretching into 2023), the onset of an 80-Year Cycle of War, and the shift to a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars. Overlapping & reinforcing these expectations has been the latest upturn in the approximate 11.2-Year Solar/Sunspot Cycle.
Though it is rarely given sufficient credit, the Solar Cycle is one of the most impactful cycles on our world. Along with related cycles, that Solar Cycle was/is forecast to trigger at least three major natural events in 2023/2024…
— Major Solar Storm in 2023
— Strong uptick in volcanic eruptions in 2022 – 2024.
— Surprising shift in drought/flood cycles for the Western US (particularly CA) in late-2022 – late-2024.
Climate Cycles
In 2022, INSIIDE Track reiterated why – in stark contrast to the calls for escalating drought in CA and the West US – cycles were arguing for not just one but two consecutive years of greatly-increased precipitation in 2022/23 & 2023/24.
That was coming on the heels of the culmination of the latest 40-Year Cycle of Climate & Food Crises – in 2021/2022 – when a MAJOR climatological shift was on track to take hold. That had been discussed throughout the 2010’s and was forecast to reach a crescendo as food prices escalated and global temps experienced a final warming into 2021/2022… before a dramatic shift takes hold in 2022/23 and beyond.
That would repeat a pattern seen in 1976 – 1981/82 when the previous drought cycle was culminating and in 1936 – 1941 when the Dust Bowl was signaling the culmination of the previous Drought Cycle. Prior to that, 1895 – 1901/02 timed the Federation Drought in Australia – the transition of previous Drought Cycles. And prior to that, the biggest impact of the Civil War Drought took place in 1855 – 1862.
In each case, a final multi-year drought (and usually warming) period began in the ‘5’ or ‘6’ year of the preceding decade (1855, 1895, 1935/36, 1976 & 2016) and stretched into the ‘’2’ year of the ensuing decade – when abundant precipitation usually timed the shift of that 40-Year Cycle (1862, 1902, 1942, 1982/83 & 2022/23??) and the end of the Drought Cycle.
That dovetailed with previous discussions on longer-term cycles of drought that had forecast West Coast rains/floods in 2017 followed by a final global warm-up and drought into 2021/2022… before a deluge was forecast to occur in 2022/23 & 2023/24. The most recent discussion of this explained the following:
10-29-22 – “In the mid-2010’s, INSIIDE Track described a convergence of longer-term climate cycles portending a culminating global warming in the late-2010’s and early-2020’s – leading into a multi-year peak. [NOTE: I am NOT a climatologist or meteorologist. This conjecture is simply based on cycle analysis.]
After a couple decades of fairly level global temperatures, the late-2010’s/early-2020’s fulfilled that outlook. That is also when a Food Crisis was forecast to take hold – driving the price of grains and other commodities substantially higher. 2023/24 is when cycles project a bit of a shift after reaching new extremes. One of those shifts could be seen in the West (as goes CA, so goes the US??)…
Based on analysis of a consistent 6-Year Cycle, a Sunspot-related 11 – 12-Year Cycle and a ~40-Year Cycle, I expect California and other parts of the West to see an abrupt turnaround in precipitation during the 2022-23 & 2023-24 rainy seasons (’water years’).
In recent decades, heavy rain years arrived in 2017 (highest total since records began), 2011, 2005, 1998, & 1993. 6, 12, 18, 24 & 30 years from those spikes pinpoint 2022/23 as a prime candidate for increased precipitation – based on a 6-Year Cycle.
Looking back over the past ~80 years, the water years of 1941, 1952, 1963, 1974, 1986, 1998 & 2011 produced surges in precipitation – averaging about 35% above the annual average amount.
2022/23 & 2023/24 are the next phase in this ~11/12-Year Cycle.
That is also when a 40-Year Cycle comes back into play – linked to increased rainfall in the early-1900’s, early-1940’s & early-1980’s, following extreme dry years in each of the preceding decades.
Following the 1976 year of extreme drought, 1982 – 83 saw consecutive water years of extreme precipitation – combining to create the greatest 2-year period of rain since records began in the late-1890’s.
Could 2022/23 or 2023/24 repeat this pattern and perpetuate that 40-Year Cycle?
Related El Nino cycles focus on 2023/24 for another chance for increased precipitation… based on cycle analysis. That is another factor in this analysis.
Since 2023 is the year with the greatest synergy of cycles related to major solar storms, the next 12 – 18 months could see some abrupt shifts in climate-related events…”
This was being written at the same time mainstream weather & climatologists were warning about a ‘drier than normal’ winter for CA in 2022/23 and the near certainty of escalating drought conditions:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/noaa-releases-california-winter-weather-predictions/
Anyone wanna guess what has transpired so far?
A majority of regions across the state – from NoCal to SoCal – are at 150 – 200% of normal with a sequence of ‘atmospheric rivers’ heading across the Pacific with reckless abandon… and a ’bomb cyclone’ soon arriving. Reservoirs are acting similarly as snowpack is also beginning to build… providing a powerful jumpstart to what cycles have been saying is highly likely in late-2022 – mid-2024.
This climate shift does NOT just impact CA or the West Coast and has been responsible for major storms tracking across the US this winter. More are likely to follow. And this is likely a symptom of a more dramatic climate shift… at least for the coming years. That is why it has been discussed.
One of the important points is that coincidence does not mean causality. Each of these expected and/or maturing events – as well as analysis for a Middle East shift in 2023 and a US Presidential ‘shocker’ – are all symptoms of a much larger, over-arching shift.
D.U.P.E. Update
Right on schedule, DUPE ’22 – the Date of Unifying Plans & Events (Dec 8) – provided another powerful affirmation to the unifications steadily taking hold over the past decade with China completing the latest move toward uniting the East against the West – an oil deal with Saudi Arabia & the Gulf Cooperation Council… to be facilitated in China’s Petroleum Exchange and priced in Yuan. Hmmm. Uh-oh, Dollar…
Multi-year trend in Gold is up while Silver is neutral but could enter positive territory with a monthly close above 25.00/SI. Gold fulfilled the longer-term outlook for a new bull market into 2020/2021 and a ~2-year ’flat correction’, very similar to what unfolded in 2016 – 2018, into 4Q ‘22. A 6 – 12 month rally could be taking hold…
Gold & Silver remain strong and have fulfilled the overall outlook for a continued advance into late-Dec/early-Jan. – perpetuating a ~9.5 – 10-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and the latest phase of a ~6-week high-high-high-high-low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver… that timed the early-Sept ’22 major low and subsequent Oct 14 and Nov 21 lows.
Gold is within striking distance of 4 of the last 4 weekly LHRs at 1885.6 – 1895.7/GCG … and 5 of the last 5 weekly LHRs at 1885.6 – 1903.9/GCG. A surge to that range would have Gold attacking its early-June ’22 highs – the 4th wave of lesser degree resistance from Gold’s 2022 decline.
Both Gold & Silver have reached their primary upside targets (1840 – 1850/GCG & 24.50 – 25.00/SIH) – fulfilling 2 – 3 month upside objectives and requiring additional signs of strength to extend these advances.
Since early-July, Silver has traced out an inverted head-and-shoulders with the neckline at ~21.00/SIH (left shoulder = July 14 penultimate low, head = Sept 1 ultimate low, right shoulder = Oct 14 secondary low) and the resulting upside target at ~24.50/SIH.
24.68/SIH is also where Silver initially found support after its early-March peak. And 25.02/SIH was final intra-year trend resistance (Jan ’22 high) in 2022. Silver has just shot up to all this resistance, in sync with daily & weekly cycle highs surrounding Jan 3, and could see some consolidation in January.
On a broader basis, Gold & Silver continue to build the case for a major low being set – in Sept ’22 for Silver and 4Q ’22 (Nov ’22) in Gold – the early stages of what could be a new 6 – 12 month (possibly 1 – 2 year) advance.
On a 3 – 6 month basis, Gold has been building an intriguing synergy of cycles – most projecting a high – in [reserved for subscribers]…
A peak at that time would also reinforce multi-year cycles that come into play later in 2023 – when a more significant peak is most likely. Both Gold & Silver could ultimately surge much higher as confirmation to the outlook for a new 6 – 12 month advance from late-’22 into late-’23.
The Nov ’22 INSIIDE Track reiterated this potential and why the early-Sept ’22 low in Silver was likely a major ‘B’ wave low before a 1 – 2 year ‘C’ wave rally.
The XAU & HUI have rallied since dropping into Sept ’22, fulfilling a ~5-month (21 – 23 week) high-high-high-low Cycle Progression as the HUI matched the duration of its Aug’16 – Sept ’18 decline. That set the stage for a multi-month low with the ongoing outlook for a surge to 130 – 137/XAU & 245 – 251/HUI.
The Dec ’22 Intra-month PLLRs (which became the Jan ’23 LLRs) are at 133.98/XAU & 256.70/HUI, reinforcing those targets. Weekly LHRs (137.07/XAU & 261.98/HUI) as well as the XAU’s monthly 21 Low MARC & 21 High AMAC (136.22 – 138.99/XAU) provide additional synergy.
The next multi-month low could be seen in the first half of March ‘23, in line with the 23-week Cycle Progression illustrated in the accompanying diagram.
Platinum continues to rally after fulfilling a 12 – 13 week low-low-low-high-high-(low) Cycle Sequence at its early-Sept lows. Its early-Nov action projected an overall advance into the next phase of that cycle in late-Nov/early-Dec – when a ~1-month peak took hold.
Copper continues to gain ground after plunging to test and hold 2017/2018 peaks (resistance turned into support). That projected a rally back to 4.000 – 4.100/HG, which is still unfolding. It is on track to stretch this multi-month advance into early-Jan ’23 – the next phase of a ~10-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression… and the time when Gold & Silver cycles initially peak.”
Silver has fulfilled projections for a multi-month advance to 24.50 – 25.00/SI into early-Jan ’23 when a multi-week or 1 – 2-month peak was/is likely. Gold is reinforcing its early-Nov ’22 buy signals and poised to rally above 1900/GC. It’s ~2-month lag (compared to Silver) should extend its advance into Feb/Mar ’23 and impact the overall outlook for 1Q ’23. That would also fulfill Gold’s 3Q ’22 4-Shadow Signal… and powerfully reinforce the outlook for 2023/24 (and a future time when a stronger advance is highly likely).
The XAU & HUI are corroborating this outlook and on track for surges above 135/XAU & 250/HUI. Platinum has spiked above 1100/PL while fulfilling analysis for a rally into Jan ’23 (Jan 3 – 13 = multi-week peak?).
How High Could Gold Reach in 1Q ‘23?
How Could This Impact Future Cycle Highs (in 3Q ’23)?
How Long Should Silver its early-Jan ’23 Cycle High?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.