Silver Perpetuates Trading Range
05/10/17 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – ‘Silver & the 2.50 Point Range Trading – II’:
“Silver continued lower into its 20-week high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression, that projected a sharp drop into May 8–15th. In doing so, Silver dropped right to its 2017 low and within a few points of 16.000/SIN – its range-projection target.
That target perpetuates on ongoing vacillation in Silver, occurring at 2.50/SI increments – most recently pegging the May 2014 low (~18.50/SI), July ’14 high (~21.00/SI), Jan. ’15 high (~18.50/SI), Oct. ’15 rebound high, as well as Feb. & Mar. ’16 highs (~16.00/SI), Dec. ’15 major low (~13.50/SI), May ’16 low (~16.00/SI), July ’16 peak (~21.00/SI), Aug. ’16 low (~18.50/SI), Dec. ’16 low (~18.50/SI) & Feb./Apr. 2017 highs (~18.50/SI).
As additionally explained in the Sept. 17, 2016 Weekly Re-Lay:
[Further validating this trading range sequence, 2011–2012 saw multiple tests of key support at ~26.00/SI, creating lows in Jan. ’11 (before its final surge), in Sep. & Dec. ’11 (after its peak), and then in June & July ’12.
26.00/SI is two multiples above the recent 21.00/SI peak and 3, 4 & 5 multiples – of 2.50/SI – above 18.50/SI, 16.00/SI & 13.50/SI. When Silver finally broke through that support, it plummeted right to ~18.50/SI, where it found support for the ensuing year.]”
On a broader scale, the overriding 5.00 & 10.00 trading ranges have had an equally profound impact. In early-2011, Silver pulled back to 26.00/SI before surging to ~49.50/SI (a single, 2.50 increment shy of reaching 52.00 & doubling 26.00). It then plummeted back to ~26.00, leading into Sept. 2011.
From there, it surged to ~36.00 (Oct. 2011), plummeted to ~26.00 (Dec. 2011), surged back to ~36.00 (Feb. 2012) and then dropped back to ~26.00 (June 2012). That led to another rally that topped just below 36.00 (Oct. 2012) and then an eventual breakdown below 26.00/SI in April 2013.
Since that time, the highest Silver ever made it was 25.00+, peaking a little shy of that 26.00 level. With 26.00 the new ceiling (rather than 36.00), 16.00 has become a recurring floor (with a few spikes below) – creating a new ~10.00 trading range… which – since May 2016 – broke down into a 5.00 trading range between 16.00 & 21.00/SI.
Since late-2016, that range has reduced to 2.50 points – between 16.00–18.50/SI. After two attacks on 18.50 – in Feb. & April 2017 – Silver was primed for an overall decline back to ~16.00/SIN, which also represents its 2017 low and intra-year trend support. It just dropped to 16.06/SIN, fulfilling that latest phase of this range-trading progression…
Gold & Silver have fulfilled almost all downside objectives for this multi-week sell-off following Gold’s mid-April signal and Silver’s weekly Turn-Key Reversal & 2 Close Reversal sell signals triggered on April 21st.
Based on a 20-week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression in Silver (similar to 19-week cycle in XAU), an additional spike low was expected this week and has taken hold, reinforcing the potential for a near-term bottom & subsequent bounce. Daily closes above 1237.0/GCM & 16.460/SIN are needed to render the first sign of a reversal higher.
The XAU has rebounded since bottoming last week, in line with its 19-week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a test of 2–3 month support. It would, however, take a daily close above 82.96/XAU to show that this is more than just a 3–5 day bounce.”
Gold & Silver attack decisive, downside targets as Gold & Silver Index (XAU) begins to rebound from cycle low on May 1–5th. Weekly trend patterns honing upside targets, particularly in Gold.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for more specific expectations, targets & trading strategies.