Silver & XAU Hold Above Early-May Lows; Rally into June 11 – 15 Projected.
Silver & XAU Hold Above Early-May Lows; Rally into June 11 – 15 Projected.
05/16/18 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Dollar Drives Deflationary Dip – Part II:
“Gold & Silver sold off in line with daily cycles (peak on May 11) and the daily & weekly 21 MARCs, particularly in Silver.
That does not alter the potential for Gold to set its next intermediate high on June 11 – 15 (+ or – 1 week) – the latest phase of a 20-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. The weekly trend, however, will help dictate what to expect from that.
Since the Jan. ’18 peak, Gold has been expected to set subsequent peaks in mid-June and then Nov. 2018, with the Nov. 2018 peak expected to be higher than the Jan. ’18 peak. That remains the case.
Gold has taken a sharp dive during the final days of an 11-week and a 22-week cycle – reinforcing the 90/10 Rule of Cycles – in which the sharpest part of a move often occurs at the very end of a cycle. This could still produce a multi-week low on May 14 – 18.
That same principle was cited in Nov. & Dec. 2017 – explaining why the majority of Gold’s, Silver’s & the XAU’s projected surge should take hold in Jan. 2018 – leading into a multi-month peak to begin the year.
It has also been cited when discussing the focus on the next cycle peak (of one higher-degree magnitude) – in Nov./Dec. 2018. This is a principle that is worth continually emphasizing, in order to prevent expectations from rising too much, too soon. Here is an excerpt of what was stated in Nov. & Dec. 2017:
10-30-17 – As many markets vacillate through 2017 – showing the potential for a significant shift – it is a perfect time to review how these transitions often unfold. In many cases, it is an application of the 90/10 Rule – a more extreme variation of the 80/20 Rule… describes how 80 or 90% of an overall move often occurs during the final 20 or 10% of the cycle.
If a cycle is 4 – 5 months in duration, the majority of the move often occurs in the final ~4 weeks. And, the majority of that majority could unfold in about ~2 weeks (~10%).
80/20 (90/10) Rule in 2017/2018
When discussing the outlook for Gold & Silver, much focus has been on expectations for a lengthy (18 – 24 month) bottoming process – in an attempt to prevent traders from getting too bullish too fast.
The primary focus was on monthly cycles anticipating a series of (ascending) lows in late-2015, late-2016 & mid-2017. Much like the bottoming process of 1999 – 2001 (a complete 17-Year Cycle ago), Gold has steadily reinforced signs of a multi-year bottom BUT not yet broken out to the upside. When that does happen, it is likely to coincide with significant moves in other markets …So, when is that more likely?
…It is near the end of an opposing cycle. In other words, if Gold is slowly & steadily building a base, an accelerated move to the upside is more likely just before an ensuing cycle high (the final 10% of that cycle).
With several monthly cycles converging in late-2017/early-2018 (see Gold & Silver analysis of recent months), that is a more likely time for one of those breakout moves. Culminating Silver cycles in 1Q 2018 may be pinpointing the most likely time…
And, it dovetails with Stock Index analysis that has projected March 2018 to be the culmination of an initial leg down. Could Jan./Feb. 2018 trigger acceleration?”
11/30/17 – Gold & Silver remain in a 1 – 2 year bottoming process, following major cycle lows in late-2015 & secondary cycle lows in late-2016… if Feb. 2018 is going to set the next multi-month peak, Gold’s sharpest advance is likely to take hold in the weeks leading into Feb. ‘18 – another example of the 90/10 Rule of Cycles…
The XAU remains in a much weaker (relative) position than Gold…portending a multi-month top in early-Sept. The XAU fulfilled that potential and reversed lower in early-Sept. – generating a monthly 2 Close Reversal lower in the process.
That reinforced the monthly cycle outlook for an overall drop into Nov./Dec. 2017 – when monthly cycles converge…the month of Dec. could still witness a spike to new lows before a bottom takes hold. Geometric daily cycles focus on Dec. 4 – 8.”
The reason for reiterating this analysis and this principle is to explain why moves like the recent sell-off in Gold are often the culmination of a trend, not the inception of one.
Just as metals were expected to see an accelerated advance between mid-Dec. and mid-Jan. ’18 – the culmination of 6 – 12 month cycles – they have recently experienced sharp 1 – 2 week drops at the culmination of multi-week cycles.
That continues to reinforce the likelihood that Gold & Silver will see their largest advance of 2018, in the 1 – 2 months leading into the culmination of 1 – 2 year cycles – projected for Nov./Dec. 2018.
(It is also the time when equity markets could see another sell-off after fulfilling the Nov. 2017 analysis for a Jan./Feb. accelerated sell-off and overall decline through March 2018.)
Silver sold off – in sync with the collection of daily & weekly indicators & cycles described in the May 12, 2018 Weekly Re-Lay – but remains above the low it set on May 1, the fulfillment of back-to-back 14-week declines.
It dropped right to its weekly 21 Low MARC (16.195/SIN) but should not close below 16.07/SIN if it is to maintain some resilience during this period.
Silver has not turned its intra-month trend down, leaving open the potential for the May 1 low to hold.
1 – 3 month traders could have entered long positions [reserved for subscribers].”
Gold, Silver & XAU are fulfilling potential for new sell-off into May 14 – 18 – when Gold cycles converge and a reversal higher is likely in all the metals. Silver & the XAU are holding at higher lows, increasing the likelihood for into June 11 – 15, when the next multi-week peak & reversal lower is projected. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.