Silver Setting Stage for White Metal Rally into 2026; Final Spike Low Needed First.
03-26-25 – “The Natural Year – Spring has sprung and a new ‘year’ has begun. It is a time of seasonal and psychological change that dates back millennia. The vernal equinox has ushered in a new beginning that has climatological, emotional and market-related implications. The first part of that sets the stage for the ‘year’ that follows.
The reason has to do with what is described as the first ‘month’ of the Natural Year. It is the first ~30-day period following the vernal equinox… and holds great significance for the ensuing ~11 months of that Natural Year (until vernal equinox 2026).
Opening Range
For those that view the calendar from a ‘natural’ standpoint (as most agricultural-based societies do), this period kicks off the 1st month of the Natural Year in the N. Hemisphere – beginning with the vernal equinox (March 19/20, ‘25). However, it is often the end of that ‘month’ that is most important… for multiple reasons…
For now, the focus is on the next 2 – 4 weeks – leading into April 19th – the Date of Aggression and the completion of the first month (‘opening range’) of the new Natural Year. That is a critical factor in determining the ensuing intra-year trend.
Why?
The Sun governs our seasons, which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. It also has a dramatic impact on our overall lives, not to mention the influence of something like the Sunspot Cycle (which has had a dramatic impact on events in and out of the markets since Solar Cycle 25 began – in precise sync with Covid-19 – in Dec 2019).
This has been true in farming/ag-based societies for thousands of years. It has been true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun and established their calendars based on that focus – much of which is still prevalent in our modern-day calendar.
As such, the vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death).
March 2022 was another prime example as the ‘king’ in Russia went off to war to conquer his neighbor in Ukraine. Just as that first month of NY 2022/23 ushered in that war, it will be interesting to see what the first month of NY 2025/26 reveals.
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year.
Emphasis on the Natural Year was more significant 100 years ago since the commodity markets were almost all agricultural. And this first month was pivotal.
Mid-April was the time when ‘carry-over stocks’ were at their lowest and when planting conditions and expectations for the new crop year – or growing season – were becoming apparent.
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – usually from March 20 to April 19/20th – marks a very important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is an annual time to watch for signs of ‘change’ on many levels.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year. More on that to follow…
Gold could also see new highs as this ‘5th’ of ‘5th’ wave rally – from the Feb 28th low – has broken down into 4 smaller waves and could now see a wave v of 5 spur a spike high…
Silver remains in a ~6-month trading range and only neutralized its weekly downtrend once (it re-entered that weekly downtrend on March 21st). Congestion remains in force… with the prevailing potential for a retest of its December ’24 low. That potential is based on the weekly trend structure so it does not specify timing.”
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.