Silver Showing Signs of Multi-Week Low; Gold & XAU Poised to Concur.
08-19-23 – “Gold & Silver remain in multi-month corrections from their cycle highs on May 3 – 5. Those highs fulfilled ~3-month low-high-(high) & ~4-month low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions and were projected to usher in a corrective phase that would not set a final bottom until Aug 14 – 25, ’23.
A secondary peak arrived in mid-July, fulfilling a ~3-month/~90-degree Silver cycle from its mid-April & mid-Jan ’23 highs. Those highs were preceded by lows in mid-Oct & mid-July ’22… and a high in mid-April ’22… a consistent string of ~3-month turning points that preceded multi-week declines.
The mid-July ’23 high fulfilled a ~3-month/~90-degree low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and projects another high in mid-Oct ’23. In the midst of these cycle highs, Gold & Silver have corrected into the latest phase of a consistent 22 – 23-week high-high-high-high-low-low-(
That dovetails with the weekly HLS indicator in Silver, projecting a (minimum) 1 – 2 month low by/on Aug 18, ‘23. This overall decline just fulfilled two critical indicators that also set the stage for a low…
- The new lows fulfilled the minimum necessary for a ‘c’ wave decline (a-b-c correction from early-May ’23 cycle high) after both metals completed 5-wave advances from late-2022 into early-March ’23.
- The new lows fulfilled the weekly downtrend patterns in both metals… During the rallies into mid-July, Gold failed to neutralize its weekly downtrend as Silver twice neutralized its weekly downtrend but failed to turn it up. Both patterns argued for a drop back to the late-June ’23 lows.
These spike lows provide the minimum necessary to fulfill those indicators but do not automatically signal a multi-month bottom. This coincides with the ideal time for a peak in the Dollar and a low in cryptos… and possibly stocks.
Looking ahead, the focus remains on the potential for a future, more significant peak in late-Oct/early-Nov ‘23 – the next phase of a consistent ~9.5-month cycle that timed the March ‘22 peak and then the early-Jan ‘23 peak. It would also fulfill an over-arching ~19-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver & complete a ~1-year/~360-degree advance in Gold.
The early-May ‘23 peak created a corroborating ~6-month/~180-degree low (early-Nov ‘22) – high (early-May ‘23) – high (early-Nov ‘23) Cycle Progression. As discussed the past couple months, the ideal time for an accelerated rally is xxxx – xxxx ’23, due to key cycles and the weekly 21 MARC. It is possible it begins in xxxx.
For now, the intermediate trends remain down until daily closes above 1948.5/GCZ & 23.40/SIZ.
Gold & Silver remain in daily downtrends but have fulfilled the potential for a drop to new multi-month lows during weekly cycles & Cycle Progressions bottoming on Aug 14 – 25, ’23. It would take daily closes above 1948.5/GCZ & 23.40/ SIZ. to give the first signs of a multi-week bottom.
Silver barely spiked below its late-June low, showing some resilience on a 1 – 2 month basis. At the same time, Gold dropped right to its Jan ’23 low (~1914/GCZ) – pivotal support for the intra-year trend. In doing so, Gold also fulfilled its May – July ’23 HHL – projecting a drop to ~1925/GCZ.
The XAU & HUI are poised for similar lows as the HUI projects a low by/on Aug 17/18, ’23 – fulfilling a 22 – 23-week high (Nov 15-22, ’21) – high (Apr 18-25, ’22) – low (Sept 19-26, ‘22) – low (Feb 24-Mar 9, ’23) – (low; Aug 4 – 18, ’23) Cycle Progression – while the XAU portends a low on Aug 14 – 21, ’23 (based on related cycles).
Both indexes also remain in monthly uptrends, reinforcing the potential for a new multi-month rally in Sept/Oct ’23 (potentially beginning this week).
Both are also attacking their 2 – 4 month primary downside targets – their 4th wave of lesser degree support – at ~110 – 112/XAU & ~210 – 214/HUI. It would take daily closes above 115.70/XAU & 225.40/HUI to signal multi-week lows are in place.
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Gold & Silver have fulfilled the ~3-month projection (since 3 – 6 month cycle highs in early-May ’23) for an overall decline into August 17 – 24 when the next projected multi-month low has been forecast to take hold. A myriad of weekly & monthly cycle lows are now converging and usher in a unique period of time – in the markets and geopolitically from that point forward. Silver has already signaled a bottom.
Geopolitical cycles argue for a related trigger event on Aug 22 – 24, ’23 (when Vladimir Putin is projected to ‘make a statement’ with some sort of action that alters the landscape moving forward and starts the clock ticking on a more significant event leading into future cycle highs) that could help support an initial rally.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! The XAU & HUI are also projected to set decisive lows now – ideally on Aug 17 – 21, ’23 – the recurrence of an uncanny 23-week high-high-high-low-low (Mar 6 – 10, ’23) – (low; Aug 14 – 21, ’23) Cycle Progression that portends a multi-month bottom on Aug 14 – 21, ’23 (greatest synergy of cycles on Aug 17/18, ’23).
Where are Metals Likely to Bottom on August 17 – 24, ’23?
Will Geopolitical ‘Statement’’ (Aug 22 – 24, ’23) Help Spur Initial Rally!
How Could Impending Gold/Silver Low (Aug 14 – 25, ‘23) Corroborate 2024/25 Outlook?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.