Silver Signals ‘B’ Wave Peak; Projects Decline into early-January; Gold Remains Positive.

12-12-24 – “Gold & Silver remain in consolidation below their late-October highs – peaks that fulfilled multi-month cycles including an uncanny ~12.5 month/~54-week high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression.  From a wave perspective, a ‘B’ wave peak could be taking hold…

That was/is based on a number of factors, one of which is the timing of respective (corrective) waves… which often ‘tend toward’ equality.  Silver is powerfully validating this principle…

During the 5-wave advance from early-October ’23, Silver experienced two intervening corrections – the wave ‘2’ & wave ‘4’ declines – that tended toward equality.  They were both ~11 weeks in duration.

The sell-off that preceded that entire 5-wave advance – the drop from May ’23 into early-Oct ’23 (perceived to be a higher magnitude ‘2’ or ‘II’ wave) lasted 22 weeks in duration… exactly what might be expected in the contrast between those two distinct magnitudes or degrees of corrective waves.

If the late-October ’24 peak was a wave ‘III’ peak – as is currently perceived – the current ‘A-B-C’ decline would likely be related to all those previous sell-offs.  At the very least, it should last ~11 weeks in duration – which would have it bottoming on Jan 6 – 10, 2025.

There are multiple reasons, related to the duration of previous waves, why that could be the case.  An overall drop into January 6 – 10, ’25 would fulfill…

• Three successive declines of ~11 weeks each.
• 100% correction (in time) of recent ~11-week advance**.
• 50% of previous (higher magnitude) ~22-week correction.  As an overall wave progresses, and accelerates, the comparable waves often become shorter in duration but larger in magnitude.
• Geometric (~1-month/~30-degree) cycles from previous lows on August 8th, Sept 6/9th & Oct 8th.

**The recent ~11-week advance from August 8th into October 22nd consumed 52 trading days.  The ensuing ‘A’ wave decline consumed 1/3 of that time – dropping for 17 trading days into Nov 14th.  The subsequent rally has lasted 18 trading days, as of December 11th… another 1/3 of that cycle.

Right on cue, Silver turned down from the Dec 11th high – allowing just enough time for the ‘C’ wave decline to consume the remaining 1/3 of that cycle and match the duration of the ‘A’ wave decline if it sold off into January 7/8th – a 17 – 18 trading day decline…

Even if Gold & Silver stretch final lows into Jan ’25 (or if they have already set those lows), they are still perceived to be completing a larger-magnitude wave ‘4’ (or ‘IV’) of the overall advance from the late-2022 low.  That would pave the way for a wave ‘5’/’V’ advance into (at least) Oct/Nov 2025.

The XAU & HUI have consolidated after dropping sharply in late-Oct/early-Nov – validating cycle highs that peaked on October 21/22nd while perpetuating an ~18-week low-low-low-low-(high; Oct 21 – 25, 2024) Cycle Progression and many other cycles.

The XAU neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times but would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 142.35/XAU.

The XAU remains poised for an overall drop to 130 – 133/XAU (multiple targets & support levels converge near 132.50/XAU) that could also stretch into early-January ‘25.”

Gold, Silver & XAU remain below projected multi-month peaks in late-October ’24 but with differing trend structures and outlooks… as they all prepare for new rallies in the coming year.  Gold remains positive while Silver and the XAU are signaling a likely drop into early-January ’25 – when a multi-month low and reversal higher is most likely.

Gold is the most bullish and increasing the potential for a new advance in 2025 as described throughout the past month…

11-23-24 – “Gold & Silver entered this past week with a higher probability for a reversal back up… A low on Nov 11 – 18th was expected and would perpetuate a ~14-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… Gold bottomed slightly above extreme downside support while creating the largest decline since May – Oct ‘23, a sell-off that Gold just matched in magnitude (~260.0/GC declines in both cases) with its latest sell-off.

Gold has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times and would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 2541/GCZ.  As long as that does not occur, Gold is poised to enter a new wave higher.  (That indicator also increased the likelihood for a reversal higher this past week.)

If Gold & Silver bottom before the end of 2024 (ideally before the end of November), they would likely be completing a larger-magnitude wave ‘4’ (or ‘IV’) of the overall advance from the late-2022 low.  That would pave the way for a wave ‘5’/’V’ advance into (at least) Oct/Nov 2025.  The similar-magnitude decline in Gold corroborates that wave potential.”  — Nov 23, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.