Silver Synergy Signals Sharp Surge
Silver Synergy Signals Sharp Surge.
04/11/18 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Gold & Silver Surging; MAC Attack:
“The April 7, 2018 Weekly Re-Lay elaborated on a topic that is vital to understand when trying to identify a market that is reversing a primary trend and is on the verge of a significant move (as opposed to all the truncated moves that have usually led up to that point) in the direction of a new trend.
Silver was the market in focus (since Gold had already given bullish signals earlier) and was finally in a position to see a more sustained & accelerated rally take hold on April 9. It is worth reviewing the key aspects of the MARC/MACinterplay that identified this week for the start of a larger advance.
Before doing that, however, it is just as important to reiterate the corroborating cycles & indicators (synergy!!!) that laid the groundwork for this potential. This is a snapshot of those factors:
— Weekly trend remains up/neutral
— March 19 – 23 cycle low holding
— Intra-month trend; Silver spiked down into 4th trading day of month but did NOT turn its intra-month trend down. That usually leads to a rally to new intra-month highs.
— Exiting midpoint of 20-week cycle. The 20-week high-high-high Cycle Progression had pinpointed the late-Jan. peak and weighed on Silver ever since. With another high expected – during the next phase – a market will typically decline for 50% of that cycle.
Last week was the 10th week and Silver had not been able to give a weekly close lower than the one of Feb. 9 – even as it languished near the lows of its 2018 trading range. This week ushered in the time when that cycle has a better chance of driving prices higher.
— The action of the weekly 21 MAC & 21 MARC.
This last one was the real kicker and – similar to the midpoint of the high-high cycle just discussed – identifies the time when a ‘saucer-bottom’ is most likely to transition into a new uptrend. This pattern is a critical and a revealing one that cannot be overstated. So, it is worth repeating for educational purposes:
“There is another developing positive for Silver (and Gold) – the weekly 21 MAC. While the direction of that channel has been down (in Silver, but not in Gold), Silver’s current price action has traded in and out of the lower channel (weekly 21 Low MAC).
Over the course of the next 3 – 4 weeks, the corresponding weekly 21 Low MARC will plummet from 16.995/SIK (in the coming week) to 15.86/SIK (for the week of April 30 – May 4).
Since that is the replacement level for the calculation of the weekly 21 Low MAC (the data point that is removed and replaced with the current week’s low), a dropping MARC can have a positive impact on the corresponding MAC.
[For example, if the 4/06 closing price of 16.36/SIK was the low for the coming week, it would be significantly lower than the 16.995/SIK level it is replacing… so the 21 Low MAC would continue descending.
However, if that same 16.36/SIK level was the low in early-May, it would be significantly higher than the 15.86/SIK level it was replacing… turning the weekly 21 Low MAC up.]
If Silver did nothing but trade sideways for four weeks, the underlying weekly 21 Low MAC would go from declining, to flattening, to turning up – even if the price of Silver never rallied.
That is why it is so important to be cognizant of not only the current MAC levels but also the direction and angle (steep or more lateral) of the replacement levels (MARC)…
The current setup of Gold & Silver argues for a repeat of what has been seen repeatedly in recent years. Gold has the potential to break out to the upside and surge to new 4-year and possibly new 5 – year highs leading into/through May 2018…
The XAU has consolidated since peaking on March 26 – 28, the latest phase of a 21 – 24 day/14 – 16 trading day Cycle Progression. The next phase – on April 16 – 18 – could produce another high.
It closed the week (again) inside its weekly 21 MAC and has a very good chance of turning that channel higher in the coming week since the weekly 21 High MARC is at 81.16 and the XAU closed at 81.54 on April 6. Its daily & weekly trends are arguing for new rallies. So, the XAU might finally be in a position to mount another decent rally.
A daily close above 82.69/XAU would turn the intra-month trend up and confirm the likelihood for a rally into ~April 16.”
That principle and that focus – dealing with the data points that are about to be replaced in the calculation of any moving average – is almost as important as the movement of current price action. It reveals when a powerful negative (or positive, when dealing with the inverse) influence is poised to suddenly diminish – sometimes in a brief, 1 – 2 week period.
It’s a little bit like the old game of standing in a doorway and pressing one’s arm against the doorjamb. The individual is told to keep exerting outward pressure on that arm – as if trying to lift it with the doorjamb remaining in its way – and maintain that upward pressure for a certain period of time.
Once that time has lapsed, the individual steps away from the doorway and lets that arm hang down limp at their side. However, the arm suddenly raises – sometimes dramatically – due to the removal of the negative impediment (the doorjamb).
In this case, the weekly 21 MARC is the impediment that keeps negative pressure on price for many weeks. When it is suddenly removed, price will often surge – seemingly of its own volition – due to the lessening of bearish pressure…
Gold & Silver are fulfilling the potential for a new advance after daily cycles bottomed on April 5/6 and multiple indicators began to turn positive… Both metals turned their intra-month trends up as Gold also turned its daily trend up (Silver never turned its daily trend down).
That allowed Gold to AGAIN bump up against what is now multi-year resistance at 1370 – 1378/GC. (The current week’s LHR is just above that – at 1379.6/GCM.) It has all the earmarks of a market preparing to [reserved for subscribers]…
The XAU is increasing the likelihood for a future high on April 16 – 18 – the next phase of a 21 – 24 day/14 – 16 trading day Cycle Progression.
It turned its weekly 21 MAC back up – in sync with the 21 MARC discussion from last week – validating daily & weekly trend patterns projecting a new rally.”
Silver is reinforcing the 2 – 4 week outlook for an April surge in line with daily & weekly cycles, the weekly 21 MARC, its intra-month trend, daily trend & weekly trend. It is in a position to see a sharp rally from April 9 into early-May – overlapping the Week of Aggression (April 12 – 19) and Date of Aggression (April 19).
Gold is similarly bullish but Silver’s cycles & indicators are set up to trigger an accelerated advance in the near future – as part of the culmination of projected multi-month advances into May 2018. That could allow it to make up some ground on Gold – the metal that has been leading most of the rallies in the past two years. Specific confirmation levels and price targets are and will be provided on an ongoing basis. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.