Silver Tests MAJOR Support at Low; Cycles Project New Surges!
05/28/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver reversed their daily trends up as they rebound from cycle lows on May 13/16… The recent low also had Gold completing its third consecutive, 9 – 10-week decline without turning its weekly trend down – a reflection of wave equality.
On a 1 – 3 month basis, that is constructive – showing that Gold has fulfilled a normal multi-month decline without reversing its multi-month trend. (For now, that trend is neutral.)
On a near-term basis, Gold projected a rally to ~1895/GCM where this May ’22 rally would equal the magnitude of the preceding Mar/Apr ’22 rally. Not surprisingly, it would also have Gold testing the level of the Mar ’22 low – a pivotal point of support turned into resistance. That is an initial upside objective for this current rally.
While those patterns identify normal expected movement, Gold could show more bullish action by exceeding that resistance (and exceeding the magnitude of its previous rally). That would possess similarities to a 4-Shadow Signal and show underlying strength.
The most bullish intra-month pattern [reserved for subscribers]… two other factors should be considered where Silver is concerned…
The first one is the uncanny ~6-month cycle in Silver that has produced a ~6-month high-low-low-low-low-high Cycle Progression when it peaked in March ’22 and fulfilled that cycle. The next phase is in Sept ’22 and is expected to time another high. In between, it would not be surprising to see an intervening peak at the midpoint in June ’22. That could easily stretch into the second half of June ’22…
The second factor involves Silver’s action in July ’20… and the 22 months since then. During a 3-week span in July/Aug ’20, Silver surged from ~20.00 up to ~30.00/SI – a 50% move in less than a month. Since that time, Silver has remained in the trading range set by that ~3-week advance.
Silver has recently retested the low of that trading range and a decisive level of resistance turned into support – the Sept ’19 peak near ~20.00/SI. (Silver also tested and bounced from the 2016 peak – a more significant level of resistance turned into support.)
Silver also tested the midpoint of its 9+-year trading range between 12.00 – 30.00/SI and is rebounding. The bottom line is that Silver has returned to multi-year support and is initially holding. That needs to remain the case if another wave higher is possible/probable in 2022/2023…
The XAU & HUI are trying to bounce after plunging from their April 18 highs – peaks that fulfilled a 29 – 31 week high-high-low-low-(high) Cycle Sequence (that has helped time most of the primary 3 – 6 month turning points of the past three years) and a ~10-month high (Aug ’20) – high (June ’21) – high (April ’22) Cycle Progression.
Both indexes dropped right back to their Jan ’22 lows (119.01/XAU & 236.37/HUI) – the decisive (make-or-break) level of intra-year trend support. They should not give weekly closes below those levels if any additional highs are to remain possible in 2022.
The XAU also fulfilled an intriguing parallel to 2020, where it dropped the same magnitude and same time (~3 weeks) as the Feb/Mar ’20 plunge. On a near-term basis, they need daily closes above xxx.xx/XAU and xxx.xx/HUI to confirm multi-week lows and to elevate the current rebounds.
On an intra-year and 6 – 12 month basis, the XAU is trading similar to how it did in 2018/2019. At that time, the XAU bottomed in Sept. ’18, rallied into 1Q ’19, and then pulled back into May ’19 – retesting and even spiking below its Jan ’19 (intra-year) low before rallying to new intra-year highs in 3Q ‘19.
In 2021/2022, the XAU bottomed in Sept. ‘21, rallied into 1Q ’22, and then pulled back into May ’22 – nearing its Jan ’22 (intra-year) low. It has weekly & monthly cycles peaking in Aug/Sept ’22.
Platinum & Palladium have both tested and initially held Jan ’22 lows with Platinum bottoming near major support and then turning its daily trend up. Both are in a position where a new 1 – 2 week rally could take hold.
Copper spiked down to 3 – 6 month support at 4.000 – 4.100/HG and could form a multi-week (or even multi-month) low near that range. It turned its daily trend up and then pulled back, setting the stage for a new rally in the coming week(s).”
Gold, Silver & XAU/HUI Indexes fulfilled downside objectives in price and time and triggered initial buy signals – validating decisive lows projected for May 13/16. Early-June could usher in larger rallies and hone outlook into Aug/Sept ’22 cycle highs. This period – from June – Aug ’22 – is when the long-awaiting anomaly has been forecast to take hold.
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Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.