Silver Trading: Silver Bottoms at Major Support During Pivotal Cycles.
10/29/21 INSIIDE Track – Gold & Silver bottomed in late-Sept – fulfilling a myriad of cycle lows including Silver’s ~6-month high (Sept ’19) – low (Mar ’20) – low (Sept ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept ’21) Cycle Progression. That was forecast to spark an initial rally into late-Oct – perpetuating Gold’s 21 – 22-week high (Feb ’20) – high (Aug ’20) – high (Jan ’21) – high (Jun ’21) Cycle Progression.
Gold & Silver have fulfilled that and now need to set new rebound highs (at some point in Nov ‘21) to confirm that a 3 – 6 month bottom is intact. Not only did a wealth of metals’ cycles bottom in late-Sept ‘21 and portend a decisive low, so too did Silver’s price action signal the potential culmination of a ~7-month corrective period.
While bottoming in late-Sept, Silver completed a 50% retracement of its entire 2020 – 2021 rally, reinforcing a developing range trading pattern with 21 – 21.50/SI as the midpoint and likely support (the 2015 – 2020 range was between 12 – 21 and the ensuing July ‘20 – Sept ‘21 trading range between 21 – 30).
If Silver ultimately breaks out above 30, it could double that range and make it back up to ~39.00/SI – another ~9.00 points above 30.0/SI. 39.00/SI would also be a normal wave target wherein the new rally (from a low near 21.00/SI) would equal the 2020/2021 rally from 12.00 – 30.00/SI.
Silver also tested and held a pivotal level of multi-year resistance turned into support – the 3Q ‘16 peak near 21.00/SI. As it was testing and holding all that support, Silver also tested and reversed higher from the rising monthly 21 Low MAC.
All of this reinforces the critical nature of support near 21.00/SI. As long as Silver remains above that level, it finds itself in what is likely the early stages of a new 1 – 2 year uptrend. It should not close below 21.00/SI if that is to remain the case. From a timing perspective, the recent low is also critical. If it holds and Silver enters a new bull market, that could/should last into [reserved for subscribers]…
The XAU & HUI also fulfilled analysis for a multi-month low in late-Sept/early-Oct with the XAU retracing 50% of its 2020/21 rally (similar to Silver) and bottoming right at or just above the convergence of 3 – 6 month, 6 – 12 month & 1 – 2 year support levels at 110 – 115.0.
The HUI concurred, bottoming in perfect sync with a consistent ~3-Year Cycle that timed the secondary high in Sept. 2012 followed by the culmination of the ensuing plunge in Sept. 2015. The HUI subsequently set a multi-year low in Sept. 2018 – the next phase of that ~3-Year Cycle – and was projected to do the same in Sept. 2021.
That ~3-Year Cycle broke down into half-cycles and timed lows at 18-month intervals – creating lows in Sept ’15, Mar ’17, Sept ’18 & Mar ’20 while projecting a subsequent low for late-Sept ’21. Price action corroborated that and projected a low at the same time.
Reinforcing that, these indexes fulfilled a consistent 29 – 31 week low (Nov ’18) – low (May ’19) – high (Dec ‘19/Jan ’20) – high (Aug ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept 17 – Oct 4, ’21) Cycle Sequence that had also been projecting a multi-month bottom in late-Sept ’21. Weekly HLS indicators concurred.
Since bottoming, the XAU & HUI initially rallied into Oct 18 – 22 – precisely fulfilling and perpetuating the 11-week low (Sept ’20) – low (Dec ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – high (May ’21) – high (Aug ’21) – high (Oct 18 – 22, ‘21) Cycle Progression that has been governing the HUI and was projected to time another multi-week high.
While fulfilling that initial upside objective, the XAU turned its weekly trend up – a decisive signal. That usually occurs at the peak of an initial rally and is followed by a 1 – 3 week reactive sell-off before a new advance emerges.”
Silver bottomed in sync with weekly, monthly & yearly cycle lows (in late-Sept ‘21) and at decisive, 1 – 2 year support. That has spurred an initial rally, expected to stretch into Nov ‘21… but could have far-reaching ramifications for all precious metals.
What Does This Mean for 2022 – 2023?
What Signals Would Confirm a Higher-Magnitude Advance??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.