Silver/XAU Project Decline into early-January; Gold Weekly Trend Positive.

12-14-24 – “Gold & Silver remain in consolidation below their late-October highs – peaks that fulfilled multi-month cycles including an uncanny ~12.5 month/~54-week high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression – signaling a likely 2 – 3 (or 3 – 6) month top.

Gold has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times but would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 2541/GCZ.  Silver is similar and would not turn its weekly trend down until a weekly close below 30.09/SIH.

On an intermediate basis, this past week’s highs likely completed the subsequent ‘B’ wave rallies.  That should be followed by a ‘C’ wave decline… One of the factors helping to corroborate this scenario is the timing of previous corrective waves… that ‘tend toward’ equality.  Silver is powerfully validating this principle…

During the 5-wave advance from early-October ’23, Silver experienced two intervening corrections – the wave ‘2’ & wave ‘4’ declines – that tended toward equality… both ~11 weeks in duration.

The sell-off that preceded that entire 5-wave advance – the drop from May ’23 into early-Oct ’23 (perceived to be a higher magnitude ‘2’ or ‘II’ wave) lasted 22 weeks in duration… exactly what might be expected in the contrast between those two distinct magnitudes or degrees of corrective waves.

If the late-October ’24 peak was a wave ‘III’ peak – as is currently perceived – the current ‘A-B-C’ decline would likely be related to all those previous sell-offs.  At the very least, it should last ~11 weeks in duration – which would have it bottoming on Jan 6 – 10, 2025.

There are multiple reasons, related to the duration of previous waves, why that could be the case.  An overall drop into January 6 – 10, ’25 would fulfill…

• Three successive declines of ~11 weeks each.
• 100% correction (in time) of recent ~11-week advance**.
• 50% of previous (higher magnitude) ~22-week correction.  As an overall wave progresses, and accelerates, the comparable waves often become shorter in duration but larger in magnitude.
• Geometric (~1-month/~30-degree) cycles from previous lows on August 8th, Sept 6/9th & Oct 8th.

**The recent ~11-week advance from August 8th into October 22nd consumed 52 trading days.  The ensuing ‘A’ wave decline consumed 1/3 of that time – dropping for 17 trading days into Nov 14th.  The subsequent rally has lasted 18 trading days, as of December 11th… another 1/3 of that cycle.

That allowed just enough time for the ‘C’ wave decline to consume the remaining 1/3 of that cycle and match the duration of the ‘A’ wave decline if it sells off into January 7/8th – a 17 – 18 trading day decline.

Reinforcing that scenario, Silver dropped from Oct 22/23 into Nov 27/29 – a decline of 26 – 27 trading days.  26 – 27 trading days after the Nov 27/29 low is Jan 7 – 9, 2025 – potentially creating an overlapping high-low-(low) Cycle Progression.

(That could be reinforced with an intervening low on Dec 18/19th – the midpoint of the 26 – 27 trading day low-low cycle.)…

As is frequently the case (and consistent with the competing factors influencing Gold & Silver in different ways), divergence could be seen at the lows.

A low during the week of Dec 30 – January 3rd would arrive 27 weeks from the late-June ’24 low – another example of the nearly-ubiquitous ~54-week and ~27-week cycle in Gold…

The XAU & HUI have consolidated after dropping sharply in late-Oct/early-Nov – validating cycle highs that peaked on October 21/22nd while perpetuating an ~18-week low-low-low-low-(high; Oct 21 – 25, 2024) Cycle Progression and many other cycles.

The XAU neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times but would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 142.35/XAU.  It remains likely to drop to 130 – 133/XAU (multiple targets & support levels converge near 132.50/XAU) and reinforced that by turning the weekly 21 Low MAC down in the week after closing below it.”

Gold, Silver & XAU portending sell-offs into late-Dec/early-January as they all prepare for new rallies in the coming year.  Gold remains in a positive weekly trend, increasing the potential for a new advance in 2025 as described throughout the past month…

11-23-24 – “Gold bottomed slightly above extreme downside support while creating the largest decline since May – Oct ‘23, a sell-off that Gold just matched in magnitude (~260.0/GC declines in both cases) with its latest sell-off.  Gold has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times and would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 2541/GCZ.

As long as that does not occur, Gold is poised to enter a new wave higher.  (That indicator also increased the likelihood for a reversal higher this past week.)

If Gold & Silver bottom before the end of 2024 (ideally before the end of November), they would likely be completing a larger-magnitude wave ‘4’ (or ‘IV’) of the overall advance from the late-2022 low.  That would pave the way for a wave ‘5’/’V’ advance into (at least) Oct/Nov 2025.  The similar-magnitude decline in Gold corroborates that wave potential.”  — Nov 23, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.