Solar Cycle 25 & Climate Shifts; 2022 Marks Time for Shift.
09-29-20 – This 2015 analysis focused on the potential for a vulnerable 3 – 5 year period to follow 2016/2017 – the culmination of a unique 40-Year Cycle in US agriculture and in California weather that would ‘rhyme’ with the 1930’s Dust Bowl.
During that subsequent period (2018 – 2022), cycle analysis focused on the potential for damaging ramifications – throughout California – from a 40-Year Cycle of drought. Wildfires were repeatedly discussed as an escalating threat for the 2018 – 2022 time frame. So, too, was the erosion of topsoil by multiple factors (floods, wildfires, etc.) – demonstrating that those two periods are not as different as they might appear.
Excerpt/Analysis from Dec ’15 INSIIDE Track:
California Exodus?
11-28-15 – Dust Bowl Redux?
There is always a complex challenge when analyzing cycles of this nature…it is important to at least discuss a few possibilities that could fulfill the potential for a Food Crisis… However, I want to briefly address another evolving problem that is like so many of the others – manageable for years & years, perhaps decades & decades… until it reaches a tipping point. This one has to do with the foundation of all farming (except hydroponic): DIRT.
More specifically, it has to do with topsoil. While most observers would speculate that nothing like the Dust Bowl (most damaging in 1936–1941 – 80 years ago) could occur again, it is important to remember that history resembles itself (NOT repeats itself).
During the droughts & crop shortages of the 1850’s & 1890’s, it was observed that the erosion of topsoil in the Midwest/Upper Plains (US) was a developing problem. It reached its ‘tipping point’ in the late-1930’s – re-affirming the 40-Year Cycle. Let’s review the progression of agriculture in the U.S.A.:
— ~80-Year Cycle from 1770’s to 1850’s – when crop raising evolved to the Midwest US.
— ~80-Year Cycle from 1850’s to 1930’s – when heartland of US became breadbasket of US.
— ~80-Year Cycle from 1930’s to 2010’s – when Dust Bowl prompted mass migration to California and resulted in California becoming the country’s – and sometimes the globe’s – leader in food production. (For example, 94% of America’s broccoli, 84% of our peaches, 94% of plums and majority of lettuce, carrots & celery come from California.)
— 40-Year Cycle from 1976/1977 to 2016/2017 – linking California’s worst drought to its worsening drought… and ushering in a 3–5 year period of increased vulnerability.
However, after 5 years of nearly unprecedented drought & resulting wildfires, what if El Nino brings torrential rains – as it has the distinct possibility to do – and washes away massive amounts of critical topsoil that has little vegetation protecting & congealing that soil?
Would that resemble the 80-year sequence witnessed in the Plains – from the 1850’s to the 1930’s?!
Could the late-2010’s spur a new cycle in which the agricultural industry is forced to de-centralize?
As thinkprogress.org puts it, California produces 2/3 of America’s produce (as well as 80% of the world’s almonds & 94% of canning tomatoes) but much of that – like lettuce, celery, carrots & tomatoes – could be grown in many other locations. And, until the middle half of the US became a giant monoculture, hundreds of small farms used to do just that…
As with Stock Index cycles, it usually takes multiple challenges to finally trigger a crisis. We already have years of California drought, morphing super-pests & super-bugs in the heartland and the disappearance of diversity in our food-production system. But, what could push it over the edge? El Nino flooding? Post-El Nino temperature spikes (which occurred recently, in the late-1990’s)??…
From a market perspective, diverse indicators & cycles argue for commodities (& metals) to see an initial surge in 2016 with another surge into 2019–2021.” End of Dec 2015 INSIIDE Track excerpt.
Solar Cycle 25, which began in Dec ’19, is forecast to be much stronger than what the experts have been saying. Since the mid-2010’s, INSIIDE Track has detailed why 2021 – 2025 should be an unstable time in the markets, in interest rates and inflation** (inflation forecast to surge from mid-2020 into 3Q ’22 while interest rates are forecast to rise from 3Q ’20 into 2Q ’23), in geopolitical turmoil (War Cycles return in late-2021 – late-2025), and geophysical instability (earthquake cycles rising throughout this period and coinciding with volcanic cycles colliding in 2022 – ’24). **Commodity prices are a key component in that and are directly impacted by solar activity.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.