Solar Cycle 25 & Solar Storms; When is Major Storm Most Likely?
Outlook 2021 – Solar Cycle Synergy
05-28-21 – 2021 – 2022 is expected to time the latest upswing in the ~11-Year Sunspot/Solar Cycle that bottomed in late-2019. That is just one of many converging cycles – some that are many decades in duration – that collide in the 2021 – 2024 period… with initial focus and emphasis on those converging in 2021/2022.
As warned last issue, the resurgence of sunspot activity could create all kinds of unintended consequences as sudden solar storms can impact Earth’s geomagnetic fields with only a couple days’ warning. There have even been some in more recent history (last 50 – 100 years) that arrived in less than a day… that’s not much warning!
2021/2022 has cyclic relation to many previous (significant) solar storms and is expected to be an unstable period. As a result, it is no surprise that so many related market cycles could have a corresponding impact. They include inflationary cycles, interest rate cycles, stock market crash cycles, gold & silver cycles, and even US Dollar cycles.
Before getting into any of this, however, it is important to get a little better understanding – and appreciation – for one of the most consistent cycles governing solar activity (the other one is the 40-Year Great Conveyor Belt Cycle of the Sun’s storms)…
The Sun goes through an approximate 11-Year Cycle (11.2 years is the most recent average) that times its activity peaks-to-troughs-and-back-to-peaks again… a high-low-high cycle.
Consequently, the lowest levels of solar activity (solar storms/sunspots and the resulting electromagnetic storms that are often hurled toward Earth) are divided by about 11 years. Similarly, the most active phases are also divided by about 11 years. That ~11-Year Sunspot Cycle is closely linked to a 10 – 11-Year Cycle of Earth Disturbances that pegged major quakes in 2010 – 2011…
Not surprisingly, the Sun’s 11-Year Cycle also overlaps a similar 11-Year Cycle of Stock Panics and Global Shaping Events – described in Feb/Mar 2019. That analysis explained how multiple cycles would converge in late-2019/early-2020 and trigger a ‘global-shaping event’ (Covid ‘19???) and resulting stock panic… just as the Solar Cycle was awakening.
In recent decades, the prior phases of the 11-Year Cycle of Stock Panics timed the events of 1997 – 1998 (11 years after the stock market crash of 1987) when the economic world was rocked by a pair of crises – the Asian Financial Crisis and the Russian Ruble Crisis – in 1997 & 1998.
11 years after the events of 1997 – 1998, in 2008 – 2009, a larger global collapse ensued – bottoming in March 2009. 11 years after that, another stock meltdown was forecast – projected to bottom in March ‘20.
The markets adhered closely to that cycle, plunging into March ‘20 – when a new 1 – 2 year bottom was forecast… and when it ultimately took hold.
Solar Storms & Synergy
Dec. 2019 ushered in the current Solar Cycle – #25. As we now know, it also ushered in global-shifting events (most notably – Covid-19) and coincided with the anticipated 11-Year Cycle of Stock Panic Cycles forecast for early-2020.
While that timed the nadir – or low point – between Solar Cycle 24 & 25, it is the subsequent, upward acceleration period with which I am most concerned. That comes into play in 2021 – (2024 – 2026??). In order to get an idea of the amount of solar activity during a ‘normal’ cycle, take a look at the above chart and note that the mid-2010’s peak was NOT a normal one. [Chart courtesy of Sunspot data SILSO data/image, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels.]
In forthcoming issues, I plan on elaborating on the chart on page 2. It shows solar activity dating back to 1750 with some specific periods highlighted. Every third peak is boxed in – highlighting the time when the ~11-Year Sunspot Cycle intersects the ~17-Year Earth Cycle (3 x 11.2 and 2 xs 17 = ~34 years).
That ~34-Year Cycle includes the sunspot peak in 1859–1861 and the greatest solar storm on record – the Carrington Event of 1859. It also includes the peak in 1956/1957 – when the Acheron Submarine Storm triggered a full-scale Naval alarm – and the peak in 1989 – 1993 timing the Quebec Storm that knocked out power in parts of Canada and was feared to trigger a domino effect down the U.S. East Coast.
~33 – 34 years (3 Solar Cycles) from that cycle peak is 2022 – 2026.
2022 – 2026 is also 6 Solar Cycles from the 1956/1957 storms and 15 Solar Cycles from the 1859 – 1862 Sunspot Cycle peak. There is much, much more to this discussion to follow…
Over the past few decades (and in keeping with the focus on Sunspot cycles), commodities have seen a related ~11-Year Cycle that created peaks in Sept/Oct 2000 and Sept/Oct 2011. That could push a final inflation/commodity price peak into Sept/Oct 2022 – when other related cycles concur.”
Solar Cycle 25 has been forecast to be much stronger than what the experts have been saying. Since the mid-2010’s, INSIIDE Track has detailed why 2021 – 2025 would be an unstable time in the markets (stock market cycles peak in early-2022 and could trigger a 1 – 2 year decline), in interest rates and inflation (inflation forecast to surge from mid-2020 into 3Q ’22 while interest rates were forecast to rise from 3Q ’20 into 2Q ’23), in geopolitical turmoil (War Cycles return in late-2021 – late-2025), and geophysical instability (earthquake cycles rising/coinciding with volcanic cycles colliding in 2022 – ’24).
This type of instability often coincides with major conflicts so it is no surprise that Middle East/Israel War Cycles collide in 2023 as well. Alpide Belt earthquakes could coincide with particular focus on Turkey & Iran. Reinforcing that, Solar/Sunspot Cycles pinpoint 2023 as the most likely time for a major, disruptive solar storm – cyclically linked to many of the most intense solar storms of the past ~200 years. (2024 is the second most likely time, with the potential for disruptive solar storms in both years.)
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.