Solar Cycle Spurring Surging Commodities & Stocks; Watch Out for 1Q 2022!
Outlook 2021/2022 – 34-Year Cycle
09-01-21 – 2021 remains as one of the primary focal points for the culmination – and transition – of diverse major cycles. As stressed throughout the past decade, 2021 was forecast to time the fulfillment of the latest phase of the uncanny 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars.
The overall period from 2016 – 2021 was projected to time another strong advance in Gold as it again battled the US Dollar and other fiat currencies for ‘supremacy;. That was expected to be similar to the previous phases of that 40-Year Cycle – in 1976 – 1981, 1936 – 1941, 1896 – 1901, 1856 – 1861, 1816 – 1821 & 1776 – 1781 – and could time the swan song for the yellow metal.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, though paradoxically related, is the culmination of an inflationary boom in paper instruments – most notably stocks and debt instruments (bonds, notes, etc.) Bonds & Notes were forecast to experience major, multi-year peaks in 2020 and to move steadily lower into 2022/2023.
As for equities, it is conceivable that stocks could stretch a final peak into 2022, based on a few overlapping cycles.
One of those is the 40-Year Cycle that spanned the 1942 and 1982 lows – the two lows prior to major inflationary advances in equities (following 13 – 16 year volatile sideways patterns) – and which comes back into play in 2022.
If stocks (at least some) set highs in 2022, it would fulfill a 40-year low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and turn the focus to 2023, when a 7-Year Cycle of Equity ‘Crashes’** (**defined as 20 – 40% declines) comes back into play.
That 7-Year Cycle timed the completion, or low points, of crashes that bottomed in Jan ‘16, Mar ‘09 and Oct ‘02.
This could easily be corroborated by the 16-Month Cycle and its half-cycle – the 8-Month Cycle (see diagram in adjacent column). The 8-Month Cycle next comes into play in Jan/Feb ‘22 and has been discussed in the context of the converging ~2-Year Cycle – at that time. The June ‘21 INSIIDE Track revisited this topic…
The 7-Year Cycle
Another corresponding cycle has been discussed (in INSIIDE Track and related publications) since the 1990’s and is also fairly consistent. It is a ~7-Year Cycle and was cited when projecting multi-year equity tops for 2000 and 2007… and resulting ’crashes’ into 2002 & 2009.
In 2008/2009, it began to gain a lot of popularity and was often described as the Shemitah Cycle – linked to the Old Testament cycle governing the nation of Israel that was described in the 1990’s – when others began to quote this cycle.
It recurred in 2014/2015 (high) and 2016 (crash low) – when Asian and European equities were hit the hardest.
All of those occurrences project focus to 2021/2022 into 2023 for the next potential ’crash’ (stock market peaks have occurred at a 7+-year interval while stock market lows have occurred at a >7-year interval). With the majority of the most recent highs occurring in 2015, the next peak could easily stretch into 2022.
2021/2022 also represents the midpoint of an overlapping ~14-Year Cycle that timed market sell-offs in 2001, 1987, 1973, 1959 and 1931. A broader ~28-Year Cycle concurs.
The 3.25-Year Cycle
Another corroborating cycle was last highlighted in late-2018/early-2019 when anticipating a 6 – 12 month (or longer) bottom in stocks. It is illustrated in the diagram above – taken right from late-2018/early-2019 publications that also included the related price targets for a major low.
That 3.25-Year Cycle was powerfully validated with the Dec. ’18 low in stocks and projected an overall advance into 1Q ’22 – when the next phase should invert and time a 1 – 2 year (or longer) peak.
So, there is quite a bit of synergy coming into play in 2022; particularly in 1Q ’22. (Before that time, there is still the potential for a second corrective period in the majority of stocks – following their May – July sell-offs.)
However, 2022 would be the first time (since 2007 – 2009) that a significant convergence of natural cycles ALSO occurs – creating what could be a Perfect Storm of colliding cycles…
Stocks & Solar Cycles?
There is another cycle that corroborates this outlook and is worth reiterating. It involves a pivotal ~34-Year Cycle (33.5 – 34.4 years) that is both a multiple of the 17-Year Cycle and the solar-related ~11.2-Year Cycle. This cycle was cited extensively in 2006/2007 – as it projected a “35 – 50% crash in a 1 – 3 year period” – and prior to that, in 1999 – 2001.
Consider the following major rallies in equity markets, dating back to 1857 and each lasting 33 – 34 years in duration (with some overlapping others)…
Oct. 1857 low – May 1890 high
Aug 1896 low – Sept 1929 high
July 1932 low – Feb 1966 high
Oct 1966 low – Jan/Mar 2000 high
Oct 1974 low – Oct 2007 high
Aug 1982 low – Aug 2015 high
Oct 1987 low – 2021/2022 peak
The bottom line is that long-term cycles – many natural and many market-specific – are all coming to a head in 2022, immediately after the latest 40-Year Cycle reaches fruition (2021). It is likely to usher in a new and volatile 40-Year Cycle!…
Soybeans, Corn & Wheat have sold off after Soybeans & Corn reached major, multi-year upside targets (~1500/S & ~750.0/C) as Wheat attacked a 3 – 6 month upside price target at 760 – 780.0/W. That, along with weekly cycles, was expected to trigger new selling that has emerged.
On a multi-year basis, Corn peaked while fulfilling analysis for a 6 – 12 month peak in ~June 2021 – and could drop as low as [reserved for subscribers] during the ensuing sell-off…
From a broader, price-inflation perspective, commodities have seen an ~11-Year Cycle (in keeping with the influence of Solar cycles) that created peaks in Sept/Oct 2000 and Sept/Oct 2011. That could push a final inflation/commodity price peak into Sept/Oct 2022 – when other related cycles concur…
Natural Gas remains on track for an overall advance into 1Q ‘22, stemming from major lows in early-2020. After setting an initial peak in early-Aug. ’21, Natural Gas pulled back to intermediate support (~3.900/NGZ) and held – projecting a new advance that could easily reach [reserved for subscribers].
Multi-year traders & hedgers could have phased into long positions during 1Q ‘20 (down to ~1.600/NG) and added or entered new longs in Dec ’20 near 2.500 – 2.600/NG. Hold these into 1Q ’22.”
Soybeans & Corn are on track for final advances into 2022 as Wheat is projecting a parabolic move higher over the next 3 – 6 months. This is occurring during the final stage of a 40-Year Cycle of Drought & 80-Year Cycle of Agriculture (~2021) – the time when parabolic moves are most likely (90/10 Rule of Cycles) before a dramatic shift takes hold.
~11-Year, ~40-Year & ~80-Year Cycles collide in 2021/2022 and pinpoint what could be a seismic shift in natural (climate, precipitation, etc.), geopolitical and market cycles at the same time food/commodity inflation cycles culminate. 2022/2023 is expected to produce major disruptions including climate (Drought/Deluge Cycles) and solar storms.
On a 1 – 3 year basis, Corn has a 3-year low (July ‘07) – low (Jun ‘10) – high (July ‘13) – high (June ‘16) – high (May/Jun ‘19) – high (May/June 2022) Cycle Progression – projecting the next 1 – 2 year peak. Wheat has a ~6-year low (‘04) – low (‘10) – low (‘16) – high (2022) Cycle Progression that is reinforced by a ~33-month low (3Q ‘16) – low (2Q ‘19) – high (1Q 2022) Cycle Progression. Soybeans have an ~8-month Cycle Progression that portends a future peak in ~Jan ’22.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.