Solar Cycles Portend Volatile Multi-Year Period; Grain Cycles in 2020 & 2022 Concur!
09-30-19 – Late-Aug./early-Sept. ’19 ushered in a transition phase on so many levels, its significance should not be underestimated…
Grain markets sold off into early-Sept., setting secondary lows while completing ‘b’ or ‘2’ wave pullbacks. That was/is expected to spur a new multi-month rally, with Soybeans projecting rallies that could easily reach new year-long highs. (Soybeans & Corn generated intermediate buy signals in mid-to-late-Sept., validating this analysis and projecting new surges into Oct. ‘19; see Weekly Re-Lay.)…
There is another overriding cycle that could also be playing a role, even though it is considered more general and abstract. It does, however, govern the explosive nature of the Sun which does have a measurable impact on Earth…
11-Year Cycle
The Sun goes through an approximate 11-Year Cycle (11.2 years is the most recent average) that envelopes its activity peaks to troughs and back to peaks again. So, the lowest levels of solar activity (solar storms/sunspots and the resulting electromagnetic storms that are often hurled toward Earth) are divided by about 11 years and the most active phases are also divided by about 11 years.
In a strong parallel to Earth’s 17-Year Cycle – and its overlapping and more consistent 34-Year Cycle – the Sun possesses a 22-Year Cycle that is able to filter out some of the ‘white noise’ and demonstrate a stronger correlation between sunspot peaks or troughs and coinciding events.
It is that 22-Year Solar Polar Cycle that is a more precise or consistent cycle, partially due to how the Sun’s magnetic oscillations evolve. During each ~11-Year Cycle, the Sun alternates the polarity of its sunspots – basically from northern-oriented to southern-oriented… and then back again.
So, it takes a full ~22-Year Cycle to return to a similar phase (with similar polarity) as its predecessor… Previously, I made reference to another moderate link that now deserves some added attention and reiteration…
The reason I refer to it as a ’moderate link’ is due to the small number of data points involved. However, it has maintained a 100% correlation – with those data points – so it should not be ignored. The data points all involve the time when the Sun is exiting its lowest point of solar activity – when few or no sunspots are detected for many months – and then begins to enter its next Solar Cycle with an intensification of these solar storms. Like so many cycle transitions, this shift is often when the most abrupt reactions are witnessed in our world.
As is always important with analysis like this, I view it from an imprecise-enough perspective to be realistic. In other words, I am not foolish enough to expect related events to occur every ~11.2 or ~22.5 years on the dot. Instead, I view this cycle as an approximate 2-year period when the trough and subsequent surge in solar storms occurs.
With that said, see if you notice anything similar to the following time frames – each of which represent the same start of a new Solar Cycle – when a sudden burst of solar storms begins after a prolonged dormant period:
1867 – 1869, 1974 – 1976 & 1996 – 1998
Now add in 2019 – 2021, the expected transition into Solar Cycle 25. If you haven’t noticed the common thread [reserved for subscribers]…
Late-2019 times momentous cycles… 11 years from the start of a previous price-inflationary period from late-2008/early-2009 into 2011/2012…. it is the time when the Sun could finally come back to life! Could we see some fireworks (begin) in 4Q ’19?…
Soybeans, Corn & Wheat are showing signs of secondary lows after triggering intermediate buy signals in mid-to-late-Sept. (see Weekly Re-Lay publications and trading strategies).
They fulfilled expectations for the first half of 2019, bottoming in sync with a 24-week high-high-high-(low) Cycle Progression in Corn and a 16-month low (Apr. ‘15) – low (Aug. ‘16) – low (Dec. ‘17) – low (April ‘19) Cycle Progression in Wheat.
That was projected to spur sharp rallies in May/June ’19 – with multi-month peaks projected for June ‘19 – as an early stage of a developing bull market. Soybeans reinforced underlying strength with their weekly uptrend projecting a new rally to take hold in Sept.
For many technical reasons (intra-year high, 4th wave of lesser degree – of Dec. ’17 – May ’19 decline, ‘c = a’ rally objective, etc.), Soybeans were projected to see a 1 – 2 month rally back to 970 – 980/SX. That remains the case and is the next expectation for these slowly-developing bull markets.”
Grains are validating the outlook for 2019 with Corn focused on future cycles in 3Q ’20 and then in mid-2022 when the 2-Year Cycle portends a future peak (potentially the culmination of Food Crisis Cycles).
That dovetails with projection for the peak of a 40-Year Cycle of Drought & 80-Year Cycle of Agriculture (2021) and the onset of Deluge Cycles in 2022 and beyond? (See discussions in 2015 – 2017 regarding global and US (CA) potential for a final warmup AND the culmination of Drought Cycles in 2016 – 2021, projected to give way to seismic shifts in 2022 – 2024.)
~11-Year, ~40-Year & ~80-Year Cycles all converge in 2021/2022 and pinpoint the expected transition of natural, geopolitical and market cycles.
That is also when Corn has a corroborating 3-year low (July 2007) – low (Jun 2010) – high (July 2013) – high (June 2016) – high (May/Jun 2019) – high (May/June 2022) Cycle Progression – projecting a 1 – 2 year peak – that was reinforced by an intervening 6 – 12 month peak in May/June 2019.
Wheat has a ~6-year low (2004) – low (2010) – low (2016) – high (2022) Cycle Progression that is being reinforced by a ~33-month low (3Q 2016) – low (2Q 2019) – high (1Q 2022) Cycle Progression.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.