Soybeans, Corn & Wheat Poised for New Advances; Ag & Drought/Deluge Cycles (2021/2022) Concur!
03-30-20 – “Mr. President, it is natural to man to indulge in the illusions of hope. We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren till she transforms us into beasts.
Is this the part of wise men, engaged in a great and arduous struggle for liberty? Are we disposed to be of the number of those who, having eyes, see not, and, having ears, hear not, the things which so nearly concern their temporal salvation?
For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst, and to provide for it.”
— Patrick Henry – March 23, 1775
For the past year, much of INSIIDE Track’s focus has been on the extremely challenging time that was expected to begin in late-2019. That outlook was based on a myriad of factors, including:
— Geopolitical (projected to intensify in Nov. ‘19 – late-’20 and impact all kinds of markets)…
— Geophysical…
— Solar-related (Solar Cycle 24 was heading into its low point with Solar Cycle 25 expected to bottom in late-2019 – a transition that historically times dramatic global challenges, most recently in 2008/09)…
— Gold-related (forecast to surge from May ‘19 into March ‘20 as part of an overall multi-year bull market; often an omen of instability)…
— Interest rate-related (rates projected to drop from late-’19 into June/July ‘20, based on to-be-determined negative economic forces)…
— Energy-related (Crude projected to drop to new multi-year lows based on its monthly trend pattern while Natural Gas was projected to decline into 1Q ‘20 before a multi-year bottom was/is likely)…
— Stock market-related (Stock Panic Cycles and ‘Global-Shaping Events’ were forecast to emerge in late-2019 – mid-2020 – repeating a cycle that times a recurring series of stock market panics, crashes and crises over the past 160 years ; see accompanying analysis from March 2019 INSIIDE Track)…
The ~11-Year Cycle…
This uncanny, and eerie, 11-Year Cycle has been a primary focus over the past year as the transition into Solar Cycle 25 (which arrived in Dec. ‘19) was expected to fire the starting pistol on all these other cyclical events. In order to place this in proper context, it is important to reiterate the uncanny nature of this cycle – described throughout 2019…
Disease Cycles
Events of the past 3 – 4 months have revived the interest in a series of articles written in 2006, 2009/10 & 2014 – focused on Disease (& Viral) Cycles that were forecast for 2009/2010 and then for 2019/2020. Several of those articles cited the correlation between Disease & War Cycles (conjuring up the old correlation of war and pestilence).
They also reiterated the 17-Year Cycle and how that was projecting an overlapping cycle focused on 2019 – 2021. That ~17-Year Cycle dates back to the Spanish Flu of 1918 – 1920 (102 years from 1918, or 6 phases of the ~17-Year Cycle, projected 2020 for a major outbreak) and to the 1830’s trio of pandemics, including the following series of outbreaks:
1918 – 1920 – Spanish Flu pandemic
1936 – 1937 – Influenza epidemic (not as severe and ‘off’ by 1 year)
1951 – 1952 – Liverpool Flu outbreak (Liverpool, England, Canada)
1968 – 1969 – Hong Kong Flu
1985 – 1986 – Taiwan Flu (Influenza B) outbreak
2002 – 2004 – SARS
2019 – 2021 – Projected Flu/viral outbreak
As is always the case, it is the synergy of all these cycles (10-Year, ~11-Year, 17-Year, 100-Year) that made 2019 – 2021 such a focal point for so many reasons…
Soybeans, Corn & Wheat remain in a base-building phase that has been projected to lead to sizeable rallies… Along with stocks and many other commodities, they dropped to new lows into mid-March as they approached the starting gate for this expected advance. Wheat has already shown signs of a bottom, with Soybeans not yet accomplishing the same. Corn, in contrast, is likely to set new lows before a bottom would become more likely.
On a continuous basis, Wheat rallied back to multi-year resistance around 590.0/W. If/when it can give a weekly close above that level, Wheat could enter an accelerated advance.”
Grains are poised for the onset of new, accelerated advances as they fulfill cycle lows and enter the final years of a 40-Year Cycle of Drought & 80-Year Cycle of Agriculture (2016 – 2021). Since 2015, the focus on these cycles has projected an increasingly challenging period for crops and food prices leading into 2022 and the ensuing shift to Deluge Cycles (in 2022 and beyond).
~11-Year, ~40-Year & ~80-Year Cycles all converge in 2021/2022 and pinpoint the expected transition of natural, geopolitical and market cycles, at the same time many food cycles also culminate.
That is also when Corn has a corroborating 3-year low (July 2007) – low (Jun 2010) – high (July 2013) – high (June 2016) – high (May/Jun 2019) – high (May/June 2022) Cycle Progression – projecting a 1 – 2 year peak – that was reinforced by a 6 – 12 month peak in May/June 2019.
Wheat has a ~6-year low (2004) – low (2010) – low (2016) – high (2022) Cycle Progression that is being reinforced by a ~33-month low (3Q 2016) – low (2Q 2019) – high (1Q 2022) Cycle Progression.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.