Soybeans, Corn & Wheat Portend New Surges into Mid-2021 & Then into 2022. Natural Year Begins.
Outlook 2021 – Natural Year
03-30-21 – The markets recently entered an annual period of transition. For those that view the calendar from a ‘natural’ standpoint (as W.D. Gann did and as most agrarian societies do), this period is the 1st month of the Natural Year in the N. Hemisphere – beginning with the vernal equinox.
If one were to begin a calendar on the vernal equinox (start of the Natural Year on ~March 20), the first month of that year would end on April 19/20th (Date of Aggression; more on that in a minute). It would be the ‘opening range’ for that Natural Year; the determining factor for the ensuing intra-year trend. Since we have recently entered a new (~11-Year) Solar Cycle, it is important to place this discussion in proper context…
The Natural Year
The Sun governs our seasons (and a good part of our lives), which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. This has been true in agrarian (agriculture/farming-based) societies for thousands of years and is still prominent in many cultures.
It has been true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun (and established their calendars based on that religious focus; like the ancient Egyptians and Babylonians). As such, it starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death; refer to the Biblical account of when David chose not to go off to war, but to instead hang around the palace and let some idle time get the best of him with Bathsheba).
Anyone that suffers from SAD could certainly attest to the psychological aspects of longer days and more sunlight when the shroud of depression lifts and the rays of hope come flooding back into their lives.
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year. This is similar to how I treat the first week and month of the calendar year, the first 3 trading days of each month, and the first day of the week.
Once that opening range (first 30 days) of the Natural Year is complete, you have resistance and support for the entire period – both when the market is trading in that range AND once it has broken out of it.
You also have an important gauge of trend for that year (if the market is trading above that range, it is in an uptrend on an intra-year basis, etc.). From a broader perspective, that ~30-day period often sets the tone for the remainder of that Natural Year – in politics, society, etc.
Emphasis on the Natural Year was more significant in Gann’s time (1920’s – 1940’s) since the commodity futures markets were almost all agricultural. Mid-April was the time when ‘carry-over stocks’ were at their lowest and when planting conditions and expectations for the new crop year – or growing season – were becoming apparent.
But, it is not just trading that is impacted…
Date of Aggression
This period – from March 20/21 to April 19/20th – marks a very important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is a time to watch each year for signs of ‘change’.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year. As I have discussed for the past three decades, that time (surrounding April 19) is what I term the Date of Aggression. This date has impacted America’s destiny – beginning with our independence and incorporating many decisive wars & attacks since.
From a market perspective, the year of 2020 provided perfect fulfillment of this Natural Year shift with the entire stock market, most metals, and many commodities bottoming on March 18 – 23, 2020 and beginning new bull markets from there.
That was due to the synergy of many corroborating cycles and timing indicators all projecting the same thing. (See March ‘19 analysis regarding the 11-Year Cycle of Stock Panic Cycles & Global-Shaping Events – projected to shock the markets and globe in late-’19/early-’20… in sync with the Solar Cycle.)
From a cycle basis, 2021 is not the same (not near as much synergy and even some contrasting or competing indicators) but the first month of the Natural Year remains significant and is likely to provide some very telling clues in various markets.
There are several markets projecting significant moves into – and/or turning points during – the period surrounding April 19…
Soybeans, Corn & Wheat are in a period of consolidation after Soybeans surged for ~9 months (the same amount of time they rallied in 2012) and for almost $7.00/bushel (the same price amount they rallied in 2012) and fulfilled their 8-Year and 16-Year Cycles of parabolic moves.
That 16-Year Cycle timed accelerated advances every 15 – 16 years since 1972/73, including price surges in 1988 and 2004, and did the same thing in 2020. While their overall wave structure argues for another multi-month advance – in 2021/2022 – Soybeans should find resistance at 1450 – 1500/S for a few months.
Meanwhile, Corn is focused on its own 2-Year Cycle that projects an overall advance into June/July 2021. That would time another peak in a sequence that already includes 1 – 2 year (or longer) peaks in July ‘13, July ‘15, July ‘17 & June/July ‘19.
That overall advance should take Corn back to (at least) xxx.0/C and could spur even higher levels… Wheat remains in the middle stages of a major advance that could ultimately reach [reserved for subscribers]… potentially by/in July 2021. Depending on how and when that target is reached (it could take longer than July to reach it), Wheat has the potential to see even higher levels in the next 12 – 24 months…
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Grains are poised for new surges into mid-2021 and then into 2022. They are completing a 40-Year Cycle of Drought & 80-Year Cycle of Agriculture (~2021) – the time when parabolic moves are most likely in a textbook example of the 90/10 Rule of Cycles… before a dramatic shift takes hold.
~11-Year, ~40-Year & ~80-Year Cycles converge in 2021/2022 and pinpoint what could be a seismic shift in natural (climate, precipitation, etc.), geopolitical and market cycles at the same time many food/commodity inflation cycles culminate. Wheat is in the earlier stages of what could/should be a powerful rally into 2022.
On a 1 – 3 year basis, Corn has a 3-year low (July ‘07) – low (Jun ‘10) – high (July ‘13) – high (June ‘16) – high (May/Jun ‘19) – high (May/June 2022) Cycle Progression – projecting the next 1 – 2 year peak. Wheat has a ~6-year low (‘04) – low (‘10) – low (‘16) – high (2022) Cycle Progression that is reinforced by a ~33-month low (3Q ‘16) – low (2Q ‘19) – high (1Q 2022) Cycle Progression. Soybeans have an ~8-month Cycle Progression that portends future peaks in ~May ’21 & ~Jan ’22.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.