S+P 500 & NQ-100 Project Divergent Double Tops & Start of Overall Stock Market Plunge!
02/15/25 – “Stock indexes remain mixed with the S+P Midcap, Russell 2000 & DJTA continuing to validate their late-November peaks while the S+P 500 & NQ-100 are attempting to retest their peaks before reversing lower. The divergent weekly trend indicators – in both those indexes – argue for a reversal lower in the coming week…
Stock Indices remain in the midst of multi-month trading ranges while showing progressive signs of topping (in leading/weaker indexes) and rolling over to the downside.
The S+P Midcap – which has been leading most reversals since early-October – was projecting a rebound peak on January 22/23rd that would fulfill a 58 – 59 day high (June 3) – high (July 31) – high (Sept 27) – high (Nov 25) – (high; Jan 22/23) Cycle Progression. It topped on January 22nd.
That spurred a sharp drop even as the S+P 500 & NQ-100 remained resilient.
As described in early-February, the NQ-100 was positive and would likely set a daily low on Feb 10th and then rally (ideally into Feb 14/18th). The NQ-100 weekly trend remains positive and could still spur a retest of its peak before a top takes hold.
The weekly trend patterns in the S+P 500 & NQ-100 are providing the ideal setup for a divergent peak and reversal lower… in the coming week.
As just noted, the NQ-100 remains in a weekly uptrend – portending a retest of its Dec ’24 peak. The S+P 500, in contrast, has twice neutralized its weekly downtrend (it reversed down in Jan ‘25) but would not turn that trend back up until a weekly close above 6162/ESH.
As a result, it could retest its high and reverse lower – without turning the weekly trend back up – even as the NQ-100 retests its high and fulfills its weekly trend pattern. In both cases, it would signal a new 1 – 2 month peak and usher in a (likely) multi-week decline.
That would likely coincide with weaker indexes extending their declines into February 21/24th… then into early-March… and ultimately into late-March/early-April – the convergence of multi-month & multi-year cycles & Cycle Progressions.
On an intermediate basis, stock indexes need to give weekly closes below their mid-January lows to exit the intervening trading range and elevate their sell-offs to a higher magnitude.
Stock Indices consolidated after the NQ-100 fulfilled daily cycles by spiking lower on Feb 10th and then rebounding into Feb 14th. Related cycles now project the inverse – an early-week spike high and reversal lower on Feb 18th.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are preparing for the more pronounced phase of their projected 1Q 2025 sell-offs – expected to take hold in the second half of February and accelerate lower in March ’25. They are confirming major peaks projected for, and set precisely on, Nov 22/25, 2024… and subsequent/ secondary highs – particularly in the S+P Midcap 400 – projected for ~January 22nd.
That was/is expected to prepare the way for sharper declines in Feb/March ’25, including a likely March Meltdown and confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift… in sync with weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered on January 10/13th.
The 17-Year Cycle projected 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major (multi-month and multi-quarter) peak in equities – and 2025 as the time for the next major decline. Corroborating that, the DJIA is revealing eerie parallels to late-2007/early-2008 and providing a roadmap for future expectations.
Do January 22/23rd (Divergent) Highs Reinforce Outlook for ‘March Meltdown’?
How Would Feb 18th Reversal Lower Reinforce 1Q ‘25 Bearish Outlook?
What Do Weekly Trend & 4-Shadow Signals Bode for Late-February/March ‘25?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.