Stock Cycles Projecting Mid-July ’19 Peak Followed by Aug. ’19 Sell-off; Will Transports Lead the Way (Again)?
07/11/19 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update – “Stock Indices remain positive, after turning their weekly trends up in late-June, with key stocks and indexes rallying to new highs as others continue to lag behind. This comes after the primary indexes corrected into early-June, retesting and holding the high of their 2019 year-opening range – projecting rallies back to their highs leading into mid-year (now).
The primary indexes are bumping up against recent highs as the Russell 2000 and DJTA show continued signs of reversing lower. The Transports did almost exactly what was expected last week, spiking up to the weekly 21 High MAC but failing to turn the weekly trend up. That was expected to be followed by a drop to/below 10,200 this week, a pivotal level of intermediate support.
They are attempting to fulfill that as both the daily & weekly 21 MACs are flattening and could turn down this week. The Transports dropped right to their weekly 21 Low MAC (10,256) and initially bounced, so tomorrow’s action could be decisive. From a cycle perspective, an initial low is most likely around July 15 – 17, the latest phase of a 19 – 22 day high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
Meanwhile, the other indexes remain positive and could set highs on July 12/15 (mid-month). They are positive and would not turn negative until daily closes below 26,616/DJIA, 2955.5/ESU & 7743/NQU.
While these two contrasting cycle outlooks appear incongruous, the Transports are close enough to multi-week lows that they could wait until other indices peak (July 12/15) and then see another quick, sharp drop into July 16/17 before a 1 – 2 week low is set. Since next week’s 21 Low MARC jumps to 10,501/DJTA, the Transports are in the opportune position to turn the weekly 21 MAC down (next week) and potentially close below it. That, if it occurs, would have negative ramifications into/through August 2019.
A daily close below 10,082/DJTA is needed to confirm a secondary top and project a drop back to its June 3 low. In all of the equity markets, various levels of congestion are intact and are likely to stay in force for a few more weeks.”
DJ Industrials signaling likely peak on July 12/15 and sell-off from mid-July into Aug. 19 – 30 (daily cycles should hone this). 40-Year Cycle & 4-Year Cycle project increasing trouble in/around Aug. ‘19… with a Aug. ’15-style sell-off becoming increasingly more likely! What does NFLX sell signal bode?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.