Stock Index Sell Signals Confirm Multi-Month Peaks; Project Sell-off into ~April 19th.
04/06/24 – “Stock indexes have all (three primary & three secondary indexes) fulfilled their 6 – 12 month and 1 – 2 year upside targets as a pivotal time of year began (first month of Natural Year). They have begun to roll over with several indexes turning their daily & intra-month trends down. A larger decline could take hold…
Stock Indices are starting to roll over after all of the indexes fulfilled multi-year upside price targets – the determining factor for when a multi-month peak would become most likely. The last to accomplish that feat was the S+P Midcap – attacking its multi-year upside targets (~3045/IDX) and setting its highest daily close at 3046/IDX.
From a timing perspective, the remaining strong stocks & indexes (many others have been peaking since December ’23) peaked on March 20/21st – the start of a new Natural Year.
As explained many times, that first ‘month’ of the Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times abrupt changes that influence the ensuing ~11 ‘months’.
In March 2020 – 2023, that Natural Year shift timed the onset of new trends – in both directions – that lasted for many months (see April ’24 INSIIDE Track for related recap). March 20/21, 2024 was set up perfectly to time a similar shift… to the downside.
That was corroborated by a newer ‘proxy stock’ (NVDA) – the driving force behind the 1Q ’24 rally – fulfilling multiple upside targets near 950, ushering in a likely 1 – 2 month (or longer) peak.
That fulfilled key range-trading targets, LLH objectives & the extreme upside price target (LHR) for 2024 – a combination of upside extreme levels.
It set its highest daily close at 950.02 while fulfilling projections for a peak on March 25th.
At the same time, the NQ-100 was already in a topping process, having traded sideways through March after surging into late-Feb ’24 and fulfilling an ongoing ~2-month/~60-degree cycle and setting its highest daily close at that time.
The action of its daily 21 MAC has corroborated that, rolling over to the downside as NQ-100 price action traded in and below that channel before closing below it, and turning its daily & intra-month trends down, on April 4th… as that 21 MAC direction was turning down.
That coincided with all three primary indexes plunging to their weekly HLS levels (and holding), ushering in the time for a brief bounce. A larger decline could take hold after mid-week.
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders should be lightening up on long positions in anticipation of a sizeable correction that could stretch into late-May ‘24…. as the downside risk escalates. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indices mostly turned their daily & intra-month trends down, confirming multi-week highs while portending reactive 1 – 3 day bounces. New declines should take hold in the coming week.”
Stock Indexes have generated multi-week sell signals after attacking multi-year upside targets as they began a new Natural Year. A brief bounce is likely, followed by a much sharper decline into April 19th.
That aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – the culmination of this pivotal transition period (the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year… the Month of Aggression). The key will be what occurs by/on April 19th with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs. This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point.
The action leading into April 19th is expected to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to a related time frame not long after (when the culmination of a second sell-off is projected). AI-related stocks are reinforcing this. NVDA just attacked its multi-month upside target near 950… and could see a sharp correction into April 19th and potentially beyond (if one key indicator turns negative by/on April 19th). Its first downside target is 750 – 765/NVDA.
What Would Trigger a Stock Market Sell-off into ~April 19th?
How Does This Align with 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.