Stock Indexes Heighten Divergence as NQ-100 Projects Final Peak & Reversal Lower!
02/12/25 – The Inflation Conundrum – “CPI data came out ’hotter than expected’… exactly as expected. The price action in Bonds & Notes signaled a top last week and then quickly reversed the daily trend back down – increasing the likelihood for a decline into February 18 – 21st, when daily & weekly cycles re-converge.
That is also in sync with their weekly trend indicator – which turned neutral (from down) twice while rebounding into early-February… signaling a top. Bonds & Notes failed to turn their new intra-month trends up, failed to exceed their declining weekly 21 Low MACs and failed to turn their weekly trends up… all projecting a drop back to the lows.
Today’s CPI release marked the start of the most precarious portion of the current ‘Danger Zone’ for stocks – a period that began in late-January and stretches into Feb 21st.
Similar to its two predecessors (since the late-Nov/early-Dec stock market peaks), the final days of that ‘Danger Zone’ – in this case, the period from Feb 12 – 21st – are the most vulnerable.
In contrast to those two previous periods, several indexes have not yet confirmed a new period of selling.
And then there is the Dollar, which initially rallied on the CPI release… but then quickly retreated. It is in a topping phase – after fulfilling analysis for a rally from late-September into January ’25…
Metals & Cryptos – the two competing anti-Dollar vehicles – add to the mixed picture (where inflation and interest rates are concerned) for the coming weeks. Most cryptos plunged into early-February – fulfilling geometric cycles from previous lows in early-August & early-Nov ’24 while simultaneously projecting future lows in [reserved for subscribers]…
Stock Indices remain in the midst of a multi-week congestion period but showing progressive signs of rolling over to the downside on a multi-day & multi-week basis (multi-month basis in some indexes), increasing the potential for an overall decline into March/April 2025.
They fulfilled analysis for a multi-week reactive rally linked to their weekly trend patterns & 4-Shadow signals triggered on January 10/13th. Most of them peaked during the 3rd week and precisely at corresponding upside targets.
The S+P Midcap – which has been leading most reversals since early-October – was projecting a rebound peak on January 22/23rd that would fulfill a 58 – 59 day high (June 3) – high (July 31) – high (Sept 27) – high (Nov 25) – (high; Jan 22/23) Cycle Progression.
It topped on January 22nd.
That was forecast to ‘likely trigger a decline into the middle half of February ’25’ in sync with weekly cycles in the DJTA – the index that has been projected to drop into the 2-week period of Feb 10 – 21, ‘25 (details in previous publications). Multiple daily cycles and wave-timing targets focus on [reserved for subscribers] as the ideal time for a low.
The S+P Midcap spiked to a new ~4-week low today, initially fulfilling that outlook but leaving open the potential for more downside in the next 7 – 9 days. In contrast, the NQ-100 has remained in a stronger setup and spiked lower on February 10th – fulfilling short-term cycles described last week:
2-05-25 – “It would not be surprising to see stock indexes experience another abrupt sell-off on February 7/10th – the third week in a row that intra-week pattern could unfold. Part of that is due to a series of daily Cycle Progressions in the NQ-100 that could time a new 1 – 2 week low on February 10th – fulfilling a 28-day high-low-(low) & related 14-day low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.”
Until the NQ-100 (and S+P 500) give daily closes below their Feb 10th lows, their near-term trend is positive and could spur additional upside.
In contrast, the Russell 2000 remains weak and just closed back below its rising daily 21 Low MAC – for the first time since January 14th.
Based on the now-rising (but inversely-correlated) daily 21 Low MARC, the Russell could turn the direction of the 21 MAC down in the next 1 – 2 days and complete a related 21 MAC reversal sequence (portending more selling in the coming weeks).
All the while, the DJTA is struggling to rebound after its latest test of intermediate support (and now its trend breakdown levels) at 15,670 – 15,770/DJTA.
That is where the DJTA initially bottomed in Dec & January… and retested on February 3rd. It is where the weekly 40 Low MAC and current week’s 21 Low MARC converge. (The weekly 21 Low MARC will remain in that range for 3 more weeks, increasing its significance throughout this period.)…
It is tracing out a textbook 21 MAC reversal sequence, needing a drop below 15,725/DJTA this week or below 15,752/DJTA next week to complete.
Once again, the DJTA, IDX & RUT/QRH could be casting shadows ahead. If the DJTA fulfills this outlook… it would reinforce future cycles at the very end of March/beginning of April 2025…
In many cases, the majority of the related down moves have occurred in very short periods of time so each of the intervening consolidation periods are merely prepping for a future decline.
On a near-term basis, it would take daily closes below the February 3rd lows to turn the new intra-month trends down and project new selling in all indexes. On an intermediate basis, they need to give weekly closes below their mid-January lows to exit the intervening trading range and elevate their sell-offs to a higher magnitude.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are confirming major peaks projected for, and set precisely on, Nov 22/25, 2024. Those peaks were set while simultaneously fulfilling repeatedly-published major upside price targets. That ushered in what was projected to be 3 – 6 month (or longer-lasting) peaks in late-Nov. ’24… and to ultimately lead to major 2025 plunges as part of a major setback in equity markets.
Subsequent/secondary highs – particularly in the S+P Midcap 400 – were projected for ~January 22nd and expected to prepare the way for sharper declines in Feb/March ’25, including a likely March Meltdown and confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift. That is in sync with weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered on January 10/13th that projected a 2 – 3 week reactive bounce before a much larger stock plunge takes hold. Many indexes peaked precisely on January 22nd!
The 17-Year Cycle projected 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities – and 2025 as the time for the next major decline. In line with that, the DJIA is already revealing eerie parallels to late-2007/early-2008 and providing a roadmap for future expectations. Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying the next likely time frame when a future sharp sell-off is likely… in (see publications for details).
Do January 22/23rd (Divergent) Highs Reinforce Outlook for ‘March Meltdown’?
How Does Late-Jan/Early-Feb Peak Reinforce 1Q ‘25 Bearish Outlook?
What Do Weekly Trend & 4-Shadow Signals Bode for February/March ‘25?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.