Stock Indexes Project New Rallies into April 17 – 21; Russell 2K Projects June ’23 High.
04/08/23 Weekly Re-Lay – “The markets are tracing out the first month of the Natural Year (March 20/21 – April 19/20), which culminates with the Date of Aggression. Stock indexes are projecting a likely peak near that date (April 17 – 19) that could usher in a dangerous period. Combined with Gold & Silver analysis and cycles – for another rally into early-May – these factors could be a harbinger of geopolitical (or geophysical) instability…
Stock Indices fulfilled the outlook for a surge in the NQ-100 from March 13/14 into April 3/4… and then pulled back. The NQ-100 needs a daily close above 13,349/NQM – the high of the opening range for April (trading range of first three trading days of month) – to project any further upside.
That index pulled back to test & hold previous highs while testing and holding its daily HLS. Until a daily close below 13,006/NQM, the trend remains up with the potential for the NQ-100 to rally to the primary upside target at 13,500 – 13,800/NQM.
The DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 turned their daily trends up on April 3 – reinforcing NQ-100 daily cycle highs and projecting a reactive 1 – 3 day pullback. They sold off and fulfilled that while testing their daily 21 Low MACs and neutralizing their new daily uptrends multiple times… the ideal setup for a secondary low.
Their inversely-correlated daily 21 MARCs will plunge for the next 4 trading days, reinforcing the potential for a new 3 – 5 day rally… as long as they do NOT close below the April 5 lows. That dovetails with weekly cycles in the Transports…
The DJTA set its recent low while perpetuating a 3-month/~90-degree low (Sept 23) – low (Dec 22) – (low; March 24) Cycle Progression and had/has the potential to rally into April 14 – 21 when it would perpetuate an ~11-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and complete a .618 rebound in time (47 weeks down, 29 weeks up)… adhering to Natural Year cycles as well.
The DJIA is likely to peak in one of two ranges before turning back down. The first was described in the April ’23 INSIIDE Track and is near 33,800. The second is a little bit higher and comes into play at 34,342 – 34,500/DJIA – where the monthly LHR and intra-year high converge with other resistance.
Stock Indices fulfilled the outlook for a surge in the NQ-100 from March 13/14 into April 3/4 – the latest phase of a ~2-month/~60-degree high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. They pulled back without turning their daily or intra-month trends down… which should be a positive development.
They now need to close above (before closing below) the trading range of April 3 – 5 – the ‘opening range’ for April. If they can do that in the coming days, it should spur additional upside into April 17 – 19, when daily & weekly cycles next converge. With inflation numbers still a primary focus, the April 12 & 13 CPI & PPI data releases could play a key role”
Stock indexes are validating the onset of Natural Year 2023/24. The Russell 2000 – which has been the weakest index in recent months – illustrated this perfectly, fulfilling multi-month cycle lows on March 20 – 24, ‘23 (as well as a 3-Year Cycle from the March 20 – 24, ’20 low) and projecting a subsequent ~3-month rally into mid-to-late-June ‘23.
It bottomed in perfect sync with the onset of the new Natural Year and islikely to follow a textbook scenario in which a low around March 20/21 (Vernal Equinox) sets the tone, trend, and trading range for the ensuing ~year… and spurs an initial rally into April 19/20. That becomes the opening range – and breakout resistance – for the months that follow. Weekly cycles in many indexes – converging on April 17 – 21 – corroborate that and portend intermediate (2 – 4 week) highs during that week.
The NQ-100 and S+P 500 are still expected to see additional surge(s) in 2Q ’23 with the S+P 500 repeatedly validating analysis (first detailed in early-Jan ’23) for a rally to 4300 – 4350/ES.
How Do (Bullish) 4-Shadow Signals & Natural Year Analysis Concur?
What Does The Russell 2000 ~90-Degree Cycle Progression Portend for 2Q ‘23?
How Soon are Projected Tests of ~14,000+/NQ & ~4300 – 4350/ES Likely?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.