Stock Indexes (Sans NQ-100) Begin Sell-offs; Focus on Dec 17 – 20th Danger Period!
12/05/24 – “Stock Indices are showing minor signs of divergence with the S+P Midcap 400 remaining below its November 25th (cyclic) peak while tech stocks and indexes extended rallies into their early-December cycle highs.
If the IDX is to validate that late-Nov cycle high, it should not give a daily close above that November 25th high. (In contrast, a daily close below 3290/IDX would signal a 1 – 2 month top is likely intact.)
Small cap and mid-cap stock indexes, as described in early-October ’24, were expected to mimic the action of June/July 2024 and lead an overall stock rally into late-November ’24. At the same time, the Russell 2000 was targeting a retest of its November ’21 peak near 2460/QR (~2440 in the cash index).
Both indexes rallied into November 25th** with the Russell 2000 attacking that upside target as the S+P Midcap peaked right at its primary upside range-trading target of ~3400/IDX. Both initially sold off and are now bouncing.
(**IDX, RUT/QR & DJTA rallied 11 – 14% in Oct/Nov ‘24 while DJIA, SP & NQ only rallied 7 – 8%.)
Corroborating that, the DJTA surged right to its primary upside range-trading target at ~17,600 and also peaked precisely on November 25th – with all three indexes fulfilling cycles and price targets that had been identified for a multi-month top…
The S+P 500 identified a key convergence of daily price & time indicators that is being fulfilled. Leading into this week, it already had weekly resistance identified at 6161 – 6194/ESH, with multiple indicators grouped at 6161 – 6172/ESH. Its early-week low added another – the Intra-Week PLLR – at 6163/ESH. That range was corroborated by daily LHRs at 6173 – 6178/ESH.
Though these levels only represent 3 – 5 day and 1 – 2 week upside objectives, they could provide additional clues if they hold and spur a reversal lower.
That would be reinforced by a peak on December 4 – 6th, the latest phase of a ~1-month low-low-low-low-(high; Dec 4 – 6th) Cycle Progression that has timed intermediate turning points in the first 3 – 4 trading days of each respective month. A 15-day low-low-(high) Cycle Progression concurs.
This is in sync with normal intra-month trend and trading structure in which a market will often move in one direction for the first 2 – 4 trading days of a new month… but then reverse without triggering an intra-month trend signal in that direction.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes fulfilled the October/November outlook and rallied into November 25th when the S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 likely set decisive peaks as they attacked & held major upside range-trading targets near 3400/IDX, ~17,600 & 2460/QR. (S+P 500 & NQ-100 are distinct and have slightly higher targets.) That fulfilled all the upside potential for 4Q 2024 and ushered in a dangerous 3 – 4 week period.
In early-October, the S+P Midcap 400 was projected to lead an overall surge into late-November ’24 – when a more significant peak was/is a much higher probability. The greatest synergy of those cycles – reiterated many times in our publications – was on November 22/25th and represented the ideal time for the small and midcap indexes to set pivotal peaks and usher in a sharp (initial) 3 – 4-week drop.
Stocks Positive into October 17th/18th, Then Late-November; S+P 400 to Lead Way Higher
The 17-Year Cycle also remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities with the final weeks of 2024 representing a precarious time for stocks. Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying a pair of likely time frames when the sharpest sell-offs are more likely… and when future lows are expected. The first one arrives in December ‘24!
Why are S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 Likely to Plunge From Nov 25, ’24 Cycle Peak?
How is Russell 2000 Range Target Signaling Déjà vu to November 2021… and Dec ‘21?
Why are Major Range Targets in DJTA, IDX AND RUT Validating a Critiical Top?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.