Stock Indexes Signaling Multi-Month Peaks; Sell-off into ~April 19th Projected.
04/03/24 – “Stock Indexes are starting to roll over after all of the primary indexes (DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100) and all the secondary indexes (DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400) we follow fulfilled multi-year upside price targets.
The last of these 6 to accomplish that feat was/is the S+P Midcap – which just attacked its multi-year upside targets (up to 3045/IDX) – setting its highest daily close at 3046/IDX.
That signaled their advances (since late-2022) had ‘fully ripened’ and were/are living on borrowed time. Along with many leading stocks (including TSLA & AAPL, which have been dropping all year), the indexes have been setting a series of divergent peaks since December 2023.
A newer ‘proxy stock’ (NVDA) – the driving force behind the 1Q ’24 rally – also fulfilled multiple upside targets converging near 950. That fulfilled key range-trading targets, LLH objectives & the extreme upside price target (LHR) for 2024. It was projected to set a high on March 25th, which was precisely fulfilled last week while setting its highest daily close at 950.02.
At the same time, the NQ-100 has traded sideways after surging into late-February ’24 – the fulfillment of an ongoing ~2-month/~60-degree cycle and setting its highest daily close on March 1st – one day after that ~2-month cycle peak.
It needs a daily close below 18,200/NQM to turn neutral and a daily close below 18,006/NQM to turn its 2 – 4 week trend negative.
Reinforcing those price objectives was a revealing cycle in the S+P Midcap. A high in the first half of April 2024 would fulfill a ~14.5-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the S+P Midcap 400 – connecting peaks in Sept ’20, Nov ’21, Feb ’23 and April 2024.
For now, the daily trends have turned neutral (in many indexes) but not yet down. It would take daily closes below 39,017/DJIA & 5235/ESM to turn those daily trends down. That is also what it would take to turn the new intra-month trends down. A daily close below 18,201/NQM would do the same.
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders should be lightening up on long positions in anticipation of a sizeable correction… as the downside risk escalates.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes attacked multi-year upside targets and are showing signs of reversing lower as they begin a new Natural Year. The first ‘month’ of the Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times significant shifts that influence the remainder of that Natural Year. In 2024, that period is projected to time an initial sell-off in equity markets, likely accelerating to the downside into April 19th.
That also aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – the culmination of this pivotal transition period. The key will be what occurs by/on April 19th, particularly with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs. This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point.
The action leading into April 19th is expected to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to a related time frame not long after (when the culmination of a second sell-off is projected). AI-related stocks are reinforcing this. NVDA just attacked its multi-month upside target near 950… and could see a sharp correction into April 19th and potentially beyond (if one key indicator turns negative by/on April 19th). Its first downside target is 750 – 765/NVDA.
What Would Trigger a Stock Market Sell-off into ~April 19th?
How Does This Align with 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.