Stock Indexes (& Silver) Corroborating Cycle Highs in Late-July ’25.
07-05-25 – “Stock Indices rallied into July 3rd, fulfilling the most likely week (June 30 – July 3rd) and most likely days (July 1 – 3rd) for the culmination of the latest rally… and the onset of a brief decline.
Based on the weekly trend pattern (reinforced as the DJTA turned its weekly trend up) & related cycles, they have a higher probability of seeing selling in the coming week… followed by a new rally into late-July ’25 that would fulfill a ~35-week high (late-July ‘23) high (late-Mar ’24) – high (late-Nov ’24) – (high; July 27 – 31) Cycle Progression.
[The weekly trend signal is a lagging/confirming one that often coincides with an initial multi-week top and a brief, reactive sell-off.]
That ~35-week cycle is the recurring ~8-month cycle that helped pinpoint April 3rd – 7th as the most likely time for a multi-month bottom… 8 months from the early-August ’24 low. It also helped pinpoint the late-Nov ’24 peak in multiple indexes, fulfilling an ~8-month high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-Mar ’24) – (high; late-Nov ’24) Cycle Progression.
An overall rally into late-July ‘25 would fulfill wave symmetry with the culminating rallies – in Aug – Nov ’24 & April – late-July ’25 – each lasting 16 weeks in duration. If an initial high was set this past week, it would also represent a .618 rebound in time. Leading indexes dropped for 19 weeks into their early-April ’25 cycle lows. A peak on July 3rd represents a 12-week rebound (.618 of 19).
From a broader perspective, these continued advances are fulfilling the overall outlook (since April) for many stock indexes to rally from their April 7th lows to new all-time highs (as a result of multiple monthly indicators discussed in April ’25). That price analysis filters and/or supersedes cycle analysis and is being fulfilled.
One of the most important, and most telling, indicators in that analysis is the monthly trend indicator. In most stock indexes, the monthly uptrend turned neutral twice as equities plunged into early-April ’25. They could not reverse those monthly trends down, projecting a subsequent rally to new all-time highs…
Gold & Silver remain mixed with Gold rebounding after fulfilling the near-term outlook for a drop to 3244 – 3267/GCQ. It has twice neutralized its daily downtrend and needs a daily close above 3371/GCQ to turn that trend up and signal a multi-week low.
On a weekly basis, Gold has a much different look. It fulfilled the near-term outlook for a drop to 3244 – 3267/GCQ and could not extend that decline.
While fulfilling those downside targets, Gold tested its rising weekly 21 High MAC – a pivotal level of ascending support that will likely be above 3300/GCQ in the coming week.
Gold would need to give a weekly close below this past week’s low (3250/GCQ) to elevate its latest sell-off to a higher magnitude. Until that occurs, it remains in a weekly (and monthly) uptrend and on track for ultimate new highs leading into late-2025 – in sync with its ~6-month Cycle Progression.
Intermediate cycle highs – in late-July/early-Aug ’25 – could time a future peak and corroborate ensuing cycle highs in late-Oct/early-Nov ‘25. If that is going to be the case, Gold should give a daily close above 3377/GCQ in the coming days – turning its daily AND intra-month trends up and projecting additional upside. The daily 21 MAC & 21 MARC could quickly corroborate.
Meanwhile, Silver remains bullish and on track for a surge above 39.00/SI as part of its current advance from early-April. In late-June, it pulled back and attacked weekly support while precisely fulfilling a ‘wave 4 = wave 2’ structure with two successive corrections of ~2.20/SIU each (April 23 – May 15 & June 18 – 24th).
That ushered in the time for a new rally – reinforced by Silver’s daily trend pattern – the likely ‘wave 5’ of its overall (initial) advance from the early-April ‘25 cycle low. From a broader perspective, Silver is still targeting a multi-month rally (from early-April) to 39.50 – 40.10/SIU, where 4 of the latest 5 monthly LHRs converge.
Silver also has a pair of range-trading targets at 39.50 – 40.00/SI that reinforce this upside target (~28.50 low – ~34.10 high – ~39.70/SIU & ~28.50 low – ~32.25 low – ~36.00 high – ~39.75/SIU high).
Silver’s late-June low fulfilled projections for a multi-week low to take hold on June 24th – the latest phase of a ~5-week/38-day low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and it’s trading-day equivalent, a 27 trading-day low-low-low-(low; June 24, ’25) Cycle Progression.
Silver should rally for at least half of the ensuing cycle – into mid-July. A more ideal scenario would have Silver rallying into July 18 – 22nd (2/3 of that daily cycle) – the same time that Gold encounters a ~3-month cycle high – and potentially into July 30th (a full cycle).
That would also fulfill an overlapping 34-day low (May 15) – high (June 18) – (high; July 22, ’25) Cycle Progression…
The XAU & HUI remain near their highs after pulling back into late-June and nearing or testing weekly HLS levels – signaling an imminent low. Those lows likely fulfilled ‘a-b-c’ corrections with the XAU bottoming right at the level of its mid-April ’25 peak (199.41) – a pivotal level of resistance turned into support and range support.
Ultimately, the XAU remains targeted for a retest of its late-2010 peak near 233.00/XAU and that pivot point – near 199.00/XAU – reinforces that scenario with the next upside range-trading target at ~231/XAU.
After the XAU broke above range resistance (199.00/XAU), it then pulled back to test that breakout point before resuming its rally and proceeding to the next range target. It is rallying from that pivotal level & could accelerate higher.
The monthly LHR for June ‘25 (extreme upside target that applies for 2 months) was at 235.74/ XAU and the July monthly HHR is at 232.18/XAU. A daily close above 210.81/XAU is needed to turn the intra-month trend up and confirm strength.
Platinum & Palladium continue to surge with Palladium accelerating higher immediately after triggering multiple buy signals on June 17th, 20th & 25th. They remain positive until daily closes below 1330/PLV & 1102/PAU.
All this action is powerfully confirming the outlook for 2025/2026 and the paradigm shift that has been forecast to unfold in April ’25 – April ’26 – with Platinum projected to surge from its ~880/ PL low to ~1,500/PL and fulfill the minimum ‘rally = rally’ (‘C’ = ‘A’??) wave objective. Much higher levels are possible/likely.
These past ~3 months are likely just the first phase of a much broader and larger advance in white metals… which have been forecast to surge from early-April ‘25 into April/May 2026.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are convincingly fulfilling projections for surges to new all-time highs after confirming multi-month bottoms in early-April ’25 – when they fulfilled major 1 – 2-year downside price targets and related 17-Year Cycle analysis for 2025 (projected 20 – 30+% plunges). A myriad of monthly indicators projected subsequent rallies to new all-time highs – with multi-month cycle highs focused on late-July ‘25.
Silver, Platinum & Palladium fulfilled ongoing forecasts for major lows in early-April, triggering convincing buy signals that were followed by powerful surges. Silver is targeting a rally above 39.50/SI while Platinum is projected to reach ~1500/PL, at a minimum. The XAU & HUI fulfilled projections for rallies into mid-June and are prepping for rallies into August ’25 and above 230.0/XAU.
Why Did Key Indexes Project New All-Time Highs?
How Significant are Late-July ’25 Cycle Highs in Stocks & Silver?
What Does Projected Silver/White Metals’/XAU Surge Portend?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.