Stock Indexes Validate Natural Year Onset; Russell 2000 Signals Multi-Month Bottom.
03/30/23 INSIIDE Track – “Several markets or market complexes – including gold, grains and interest rate futures – completed intermediate surges or declines into the week of March 20 – 24, ‘23. On their own, there is nothing that remarkable or noteworthy about those moves. However, they have the potential to become significant as the next ~3 weeks unfold.
The reason for this has to do with what is best described as the first month of the Natural Year. It is the first ~30-day period following the Vernal Equinox… and holds great significance for the ensuing ~11 months of that Natural Year (until Vernal Equinox 2024).
Opening Range
For those that view the calendar from a ‘natural’ standpoint (as most agrarian or agricultural-based societies do), this period is the 1st month of the Natural Year in the N. Hemisphere – beginning with the vernal equinox (March 20, 2023).
However, it is often the end of that ‘month’ that is the most important… for multiple reasons.
If one were to begin a calendar on the vernal equinox, the first month of that year would end on April 19/20. It would be the ‘opening range’ for that Natural Year; a pivotal and determining factor for the ensuing intra-year trend.
Why?
The Sun governs our seasons, which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. It also has a dramatic impact on our overall lives, not to mention the influence of something like the Sunspot Cycle… which has demonstrated its impact multiple times over the past ~three years.
This has been true in farming/ag-based societies for thousands of years. It was true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun (and established their calendars based on that focus) – much of which is still prevalent in our modern-day calendar and some holidays.
As such, the vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death). In 2022, that cycle was played out again on the global stage.
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year. This is similar to how I treat the first 3 weeks – and month – of the calendar year, the first 3 trading days of each month, and the first day of the week.
Once that opening range (first 30 days) of the Natural Year is complete, you have resistance and support for the entire period – both when the market is trading in that range AND once it has broken out of it.
You also have an important gauge of trend for that year (if the market is trading above that range, it is in an uptrend on an intra-year basis, etc.).
Emphasis on the Natural Year was more significant 100 years ago since the commodity markets were almost all agricultural. Mid-April was the time when ‘carry-over stocks’ were at their lowest and when planting conditions and expectations for the new crop year – or growing season – were becoming apparent.
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – from March 20/21 to April 19/20th – marks a very important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is a time to watch each year for signs of ‘change’.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year. As I have discussed for the past three decades, that time (surrounding April 19) is what I term the Date of Aggression… a dangerous period.
In 2022, it was projected to time 3 – 6 month (or longer) peaks and trigger abrupt sell-offs in both stocks and gold. The DJIA & Gold precisely fulfilled that analysis and have still NOT returned to the highs set during that decisive week.
In contrast, 2020 provided the opposite with the entire stock market, most metals, and many commodities bottoming on March 18 – 23, 2020 and beginning new bull markets from there.
In 2021, stocks began a second intra-year rally in late-March and the originating lows became pivotal support that was tested multiple times in indexes like DJTA & Russell 2000… The weaker indexes bottomed on March 20 – 24, reinforcing this annual cycle.
The key takeaway involves what occurs during that initial ‘month’ and what the markets reveal about the ensuing 11 ‘months’ of that new Natural Year. And that doesn’t only apply to the markets. The natural and geopolitical world often concur.
Linear Extrapolation
For years, the experts were saying Solar Cycle 2025 (which began in Dec ‘19) was going to be another non-event, with lessening numbers of sunspots projected (using linear extrapolation of the most recent 3 – 4 Solar Cycles).
Cycles, as published repeatedly in INSIIDE Track and corresponding publications, projected Solar Cycle 25 to be far more dramatic and disruptive (potentially damaging or devastating) – and produce a significantly higher number of sunspots and have a serious impact – on everything from Disease Cycles to Stock Panic Cycles to Drought/Deluge Cycles.
The excerpt included on page 2 demonstrates which of those outlooks is closer to being accurate.
And all along, those cycles have pinpointed 2023 & 2024 as the years when the most disruptive solar storms are most likely – with the primary focus on 2023 for a major, disruptive storm. These 1Q ‘23 solar storms are acting like precursors.
Coinciding with that outlook, cycles (as published repeatedly in INSIIDE Track and corresponding publications) also projected a new spike in Disease/Viral Cycles for 2019/2020, Stock Panic Cycles for 1Q ‘20, War Cycles for 2021 – 2025, and Drought-to-Deluge Cycles to take hold in 2022/23… the same time the experts were utilizing linear extrapolation of the previous years to project another drought-ridden winter for California and the west coast of North America.
So far, each of those related forecasts has come to fruition… lending a little credibility to related cycles and analysis for a major solar storm in 2023 and a major volcanic eruption in 2023, 2024, or both.
Life, and nature, does not, has not, and never will unfold on a linear basis. It is cyclical!
And sooner or later, the experts need to wake up and recognize that… or continue to ignore it at their own peril. What else does this mean for 2023 – 2025? Stay tuned…
Stock Indices sold off into mid-March, when the leading/stronger indexes (NQ-100 and S+P 500) set multi-week lows in sync with multiple cycles including a ~30-day/~1-month Cycle Progression. That spurred a special WR Alert, explaining why the NQ-100 had bottomed and should surge into [reserved for subscribers]…
The lagging Russell 2000 produced its own signs of bottoming, reinforcing the impact of the start of Natural Year 2023/24. The Russell 2000 perpetuated a ~3-month/~90-degree high (Mar ’22) – low (Jun ’22) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Dec ’22) – (low; late-March ’23) Cycle Progression AND bottomed exactly 3 years from the 2020 lows – on March 20 – 24, ‘23.
The DJTA did the same, perpetuating a 3-month/~90-degree low (Sept 23) – low (Dec 22) – (low; March 24) Cycle Progression and has the potential to rally into April 17 – 21 when it would perpetuate an ~11-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and complete a .618 rebound in time (47 weeks down, 29 weeks up). That could provide a perfect validation to Natural Year cycles.
For now, the NQ-100 remains the leader – on track for a surge from March 13…
The ‘Ideal Scenario’
If I was to pick the ideal scenario for the DJIA in 2023 (the scenario that would fulfill the greatest number of currently-recognized cycles and price levels), it would go something like this: [reserved for subscribers]…
The action of early-April should begin to show whether anything remotely close to this potential scenario is possible.
One other point about next year: 2024 is the next phase of the uncanny 17-Year Cycle that precisely timed the Oct 2007 peak – and subsequent meltdown in 2008 – and which has also had a remarkably strong correlation with and adherence to Middle East War/ Conflict Cycles (which begin in 2023). Related reports, dating back to 2007, can be viewed at:
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/17-year-cycle/
1990 began the Persian Gulf War.
1973 was the Yom Kippur War.
1956 was the Sinai Crisis.
1939 timed the Arab Revolt & start of Holocaust.
1922 timed the Middle East Peace Agreement – carving up the Ottoman Empire and Middle East… setting the stage for all that has transpired since then.
It is intriguing the US Dollar has a related (but offset/lagging) 17-Year Cycle that comes into play in 2025/26 and portends a multi-year low (34 years from 1992 low and 17 years from 2008 low). Just as in both of those previous time frames, a downturn in US equities could lead or magnify a sell-off in the Dollar.
2025 is also the latest phase of a corroborating ~7-Year Cycle that produced multi-year Dollar lows in 2004, 2011 & 2018. More on this outlook to follow.
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month/1 – 2 year traders and investors should have exited long positions in early-Sept ‘21. 1 – 2 month traders were triggered into longs in mid-Oct & exited them in early-Dec. Early-Jan ‘23 triggered the latest bullish period…”
Stock indexes remain on track for projected surges above 13,800/NQ & 4300/ES. Reinforcing this outlook, the Russell 2000 – which has been the weakest index in recent months – fulfilled multi-month cycle lows on March 20 – 24 and portends a subsequent ~3-month rally into mid-to-late-June ‘23. It is bottoming in perfect sync with the onset of the new Natural Year and likely to follow a textbook scenario – in which a low around March 20/21 (Vernal Equinox) sets the tone, trend, and trading range for the ensuing ~year… and spurs an initial rally into April 19/20.
That dovetails with projections for the NQ-100 and S+P 500 to still see additional surge(s) in 2Q ’23.
How Do (Bullish) 4-Shadow Signals & Natural Year Analysis Concur?
What Does The Russell 2000 ~3-Month/~90-Degree Cycle Progression Portend for 2Q ‘23?
How Soon are Projected Tests of ~14,000+/NQ & ~4300 – 4350/ES Likely?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.