Stock Indexes Validating 17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow Signals; Early-March Acceleration Lower Likely!
02/28/25 – “Stock Indices are steadily confirming the peaks set in many indexes in November ’24. That fulfilled the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks – setting multi-month highs in 4Q 2024 – that portends (at least) a 20 – 30% decline from those peaks.
That decline could stretch out for 6 – 12 months or longer but many other cycles & indicators will be used to hone that potential. The S+P Midcap 400 was the primary focus and was projected to spur an Oct/Nov ‘24 surge leading into a 3 – 6-month (or longer) peak on Nov 22/25, 2024.
That index precisely fulfilled that outlook and peaked on Nov 25th, along with the Russell 2000 & DJTA… and a myriad of related stocks.
The DJTA has gone through a textbook reversal sequence on many levels, including its weekly 21 MAC indicator. That index could easily drop back to ~13,500 (potentially in 2025), where secondary lows were set in March – October ‘23, fulfilling a ~25% decline.
If the S+P Midcap drops to ~2750/IDX in 2025, it would fulfill a ~20% decline while returning to a very consistent range parameter that has helped set a series of highs in 2022 & 2023 and then lows in 2024. Monthly HLS levels and the monthly 21 Low MAC & 21 High MARC show that could occur as soon as March/April 2025.
The NQ-100, which retested its high and fulfilled its weekly trend pattern, signaled a peak on February 18/19th and could see a multi-month drop to ~17,800/NQ – the point at which a 20% decline would reach fruition while retesting the lows set in August ‘24 – a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (the low before a final, wave ‘5’ rally).
That is the primary downside wave target – following a major peak – and a level of 3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month support.
The NQ-100 is another index where the monthly 21 Low MAC & monthly HLS levels identify March/April ‘25 as an ideal time for that target/support to be reached and a multi-month low to take hold.
4-Shadow
The NQ-100 rallying to a slight new high, and the S+P 500 retesting its high, were textbook fulfillments of the likely action after a 4-Shadow Indicator signal is triggered. The retest of those highs then projects a much larger decline than the preceding one (that triggered the 4-Shadow signal).
As described before, that indicator possesses parallels to the weekly trend indicator with three critical (similar) facets providing important portents:
- The most immediate portent is that both signals warn of an imminent (but only initial) low.
- The second, correlating similarity is that both signals project a reactive rally to follow.
- The third parallel is that both indicators warn of a future, more significant decline to take hold after that reactive rally has played out.
That decline could now be taking hold after the indexes rebounded from their January lows with the S+P 500 & NQ-100 retesting their highs and fulfilling that phase of the 4-Shadow Signal. Weekly closes below those January lows are needed to confirm the onset of the next phase.
Partially leading the way, the DJTA sold off in February, fulfilling intermediate cycles and setting the lowest daily close since October 3, 2024.
It is poised to see another wave of selling in March that could extend (if key signals are triggered on March 7 – 14th) into early-April, the next phase of related 17 – 18-week high-high-high-(low?) and ~9-week high-high-(low?) Cycle Progressions.
Bigger Picture
On a 6 – 12 month (and intra-year) basis, the mid-January lows are now pivotal. It would take weekly closes below them to signal that a new 1 – 2 month (or longer) decline is unfolding (and to turn the intra-year trends down).
This overall decline – beginning in late-Nov in multiple indexes – is still expected to stretch into March/April ‘25 (potentially longer) – the convergence of multiple cycles & Cycle Progressions. That includes an 18/19-month low-low-(??) Cycle Progression, a 2-Year Cycle (DJIA peaked in late-Nov ’22 & sold off into March ’23) and an annual cycle that timed intra-year lows in 2020, 2023 & 2024.
Daily & weekly cycles are focused on late-March/ early-April as the ideal time for that low. That could be corroborated by [reserved for subscribers]…
6 – 12 month & 1 – 2 year traders and investors can lighten up on long positions.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are in a time of projected bearishness – in late-Feb/early-March ’25 – when all are projecting 2 – 4 week drops with acceleration lower still forecast for March ’25. They are confirming the major peaks projected for Nov 22/25, 2024 (in S+P Midcap 400 & related indexes) and the subsequent/secondary highs projected for ~January 22nd – a multi-month topping process.
That was/is expected to prepare the way for sharper declines into March ’25 and confirmation of a broader stock market (seismic) shift. That would validate weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered on January 10/13th. Coinciding with that, Bitcoin projected a major peak for January 2025 and is signaling a sharp drop into the first half of March ’25.
The 17-Year Cycle projected 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major (multi-month & multi-quarter) peak in equities – and 2025 as the time for the next major decline in stocks. It also continues to project a recession AND stagflation in 2025/2026. Corroborating that, the DJIA is revealing eerie parallels to late-2007/early-2008 and providing a roadmap for future expectations.
What are Parallels – AND Contrasts – Between 1920’s, 1990’s & 2020’s?
How Would Late-Feb/Early-March Plunges in Equities & Cryptos Reinforce Connections?
What ‘Shadows’ Do Weekly Trend & 4-Shadow Signals Cast Ahead for Stocks in 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.