Stock Indices Following Textbook Sequence; Portend Drop into ~April 19th.
04/11/24 – “Stock indexes are slowly creating a top in the same sequence that most peaks have taken place (at least in the last ~10 years). The first criterion was for all the primary (DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100) and all the secondary (DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400) indexes to reach their respective multi-year upside price targets and fulfill the majority of upside potential.
The last of these 6 to accomplish that feat was/is the S+P Midcap – which attacked its multi-year upside targets (up to 3045/IDX) on March 28th and April 1st – setting its highest daily close at 3046/IDX. That phase is now fulfilled… but needs confirming signals to indicate a top.
During this process, there is usually some developing divergence – either between indexes or among key stocks within those indexes. That has been the case… on both fronts. Along with many leading stocks (including TSLA & AAPL, which have been dropping all year), the indexes have been setting a series of divergent peaks since December 2023.
That is validating multi-month/multi-year cycles in diverse stocks & indexes. The S+P Midcap rallied into early-April ’24 – finally reaching its multi-year upside target while fulfilling a ~14.5-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – connecting peaks in Sept ’20, Nov ’21, Feb ’23 and April 2024.
[Leading stocks like AMZN have a 33 – 34-month high (Dec ’15) – high (Sept ’18) – high (July ’21) – (high; April/May 2024) Cycle Progression that is now being fulfilled.]
The next step is for initial sell-offs to take hold, turning daily trends & indicators down while signaling multi-week highs are intact. That has occurred in the DJIA, DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400. The final step would be for the stronger indexes to do the same. A daily close below 18,000/NQM would be the clearest sign a 1 – 2 month top is intact…
On a 2 – 3 month basis, the outlook still calls for [reserved for subscribers]…
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders can be lightening up on long positions in anticipation of a sizeable correction. The Weekly Re-Lay will update changes and signals in the shorter-term trends.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling multi-week sell signals that project an initial sharp decline into April 19th. That aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – the culmination of this pivotal transition period (the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year… the Month of Aggression). The key will be what occurs by/on April 19th with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs.
This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point and spurring a multi-week bounce.
The action leading into April 19th is expected to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to a related time frame surrounding mid-May ‘24.
What Would a Stock Market Sell-off into ~April 19th Reveal?
Does This Correspond to 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.