Stock Market Danger Period III: Indexes Rally into Nov. 27 Cycle Peak; Set Stage for early-Dec. Sell-off; NQ-100 & NYA Weekly Cycles Concur.
11/30/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Stock Indices are diverging at their highs with leading stocks and indexes turning down in early-Nov. and then rebounding to secondary highs as the primary indexes rallied to new highs leading into a decisive week.
Longer-term cycles in the NYA & NQ-100 corroborate the initial reversal signals already triggered in the DJTA. This could now lead to a new sell-off (a ‘c’ wave decline in the Transports and key stocks) into late-Dec…
All of the indexes maintain the potential for a peak in Nov. ’19 – perpetuating a ~7-month low (July ’17) – low (Feb. ’18) – high (Sept. ’18) – high (April ’19) – high (Nov. ’19) Cycle Progression.
In the case of the Nasdaq 100, a corroborating ~30-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression projected that peak for Nov. 25 – 29.
Perhaps the most intriguing index is the NYA (NYSE Index). After 22 months, it is finally approaching its Jan. ’18 peak – a high that has held for almost two years. It is doing this in a symmetrical manner…
The NYA declined for 11 months – from late-Jan. into late-Dec. ’18 – from 13,637 down to 10,723. It has since advanced for 11 months – from late-Dec. ’18 into late-Nov. ’19 – and from 10,723 back up to 13,611. This symmetry reflects a form of balance or equilibrium on a time/price basis.
While doing this, the NYA has perpetuated an even longer ~11-month cycle that creates a 47 – 48 week high (Feb. 27 – Mar. 3, ’17) – high (Jan. 22 – 26, ’18) – low (Dec. 24 – 28, ’18) – high (Nov. 25 – 29) Cycle Sequence.
On an intermediate basis, the NYA has adhered to a 9 – 10-week cycle since Aug. ’18, creating a 9 – 10 week low-low-low (Dec. ’18)-high-high-high-high Cycle Progression that portends another 1 – 2 month high on Nov. 25 – 29.
While these primary indexes have stretched highs into the end of Nov. ’19, others peaked earlier in the month and are signaling the onset of a new decline. The DJTA peaked on Nov. 5 – 7 while twice testing its late-April high but failing to close above it. It was projected to sell off into daily cycles on Nov. 21/22 and then rebound into Nov. 26/27. It fulfilled that outlook, with its daily trend pattern reinforcing the potential for a reversal lower on Nov. 27.
Stock indexes rallied into Nov. 27 and fulfilled their daily trend patterns as the DJTA signaled a divergent peak.”
Stock indexes fulfilled analysis for a rally into Nov. 26/27 and are poised for a quick, sharp sell-off in December. This potential was powerfully validated as Transports rebounded while remaining in a daily downtrend – and peaked as indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and NYSE Index spiked to new highs on Nov. 27 – when longer-term cycles project a decisive peak (Nov. 25 – 29).
How Low Could December Sell-off Plunge?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.