Stock Market Danger Period Nears
10/22/16 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Stock Indices are (very) slowly validating expectations for Danger Period #2 – projected to take hold right after Oct. 7th and to spur an overall decline (in multiple phases) into late-November. However, key confirmation is still elusive.
It is looking more & more like the decline of July/Aug. 2015 (the last time the 32–33 Week & 66-Week Cycle converged) – when 75% of the overall, 3–4 month decline occurred during the final 1–2 weeks (analogous period is right after Nov. 8th Election)… and 90+% of the drop took place more than two months after the peak.
In the case of the DJIA, it set a second lower high in mid-July (2015) – two months after its mid-May peak and 5 weeks before the culmination of its decline. At the time, it was within 200 points of its peak… and then dropped 2,700+ points in a 35-day period. Up until mid-July ‘15, the Indices were languishing near their highs but not picking up any downside momentum,
In Oct. ’16, the Indices are acting similarly. The most important downside confirmation would come if/when the weekly trends turn down (w/weekly closes below xx,xxx/DJIA & xxxx.xx/ESZ [reserved for subscribers only]….
Stock Indices spiked to new intra-week lows on Oct. 21st, validating daily cycles but failing to break below the mid-Oct. lows. On a very near-term basis, that shows a little more resilience than expected… and ushers in the potential for a bounce into mid-week.
A high on Oct. 26th would perpetuate a 12 trading-day high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and then project a 12 trading-day drop into the next phase of that cycle – on Nov. 11th (the same time a ~30-degree high-high-low-low-low Cycle Progression recurs).
1–3 month & 3–6 month traders & investors should have sold Stock Indices on Aug. 29–Sept. 7th (~18,400–18,550/DJIA & ~2161–2182/ESZ) and be holding these shorts. Risk/exit [reserved for subscribers only].”
Stock Indices are reinforcing analysis for a steadily developing decline – during Danger Period #2 – from Oct. 7th into late-Nov. 2016. Oct. 26th ushers in next phase & is expected to trigger new decline… that could accelerate in early-Nov. Key downside targets could be reached in 1–2 weeks. See Weekly Re-Lay for details.
Also, see 40-Year Cycle Reports for details on outlook from late-2016 into 2017 (and beyond).