Stock Market Danger: Stocks Fulfilling Forecast for late-April/early-May ’19 Peak; What Could Trigger May 2019 Sell-off?
Stock Market Danger: Stocks Fulfilling Forecast for late-April/early-May ’19 Peak; What Could Trigger May 2019 Sell-off?
04/24/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “The ‘Energy/Equity Connection’ remains in force – most recently timing the late-Sept. peaks and late-Dec. lows in both complexes. Both have been projected, since mid-to-late-2018, to see their next multi-month peaks set in May 2019. As a result, it is a beneficial time to revisit these cycles, their significance, and what they have been portending for 2019…
Since confirming the late-Dec. lows (expected to be 6 – 12 month bottoms), these two complexes have been projected to move progressively higher into that May 2019 cycle peak. That was/is due to multiple factors but a couple key cycles really stand out.
One of the prevailing cycles that has been reinforcing this outlook is the 32 – 34 Week Cycle. That equates to a roughly ~8-month cycle. As described since early-2018, indexes like the Euro STOXX had a consistent ~4-month (15 – 17 Week) and ~8-month (32 – 34 Week) cycle that was projecting decisive peaks in Sept. ’18 and May ’19, each followed by significant sell-offs.
The DJ Comp Average had a similar cycle that was also forecast to usher in a mid-Sept. ’18 peak and 10 – 20% sell-off to follow. At the same time, Crude had similar cycles – as well as over-arching 5-Year & 10-Year Cycles – all projecting a (minimum) 1 – 2 year peak in Sept. 2018. Those cycles were discussed throughout 2018 and revisited in the Oct. 17, 2018 Weekly Re-Lay Alert…
Above is a Cycle Progression originally published last year, projecting a Sept. ’18 peak in the DJ Comp. That ~8-month cycle is the equivalent of the 32 – 34 Week Cycle and recurs, in the DJ Comp, beginning next week. So, the energy AND equity markets are approaching a momentous cycle convergence in the coming weeks… when a multi-month peak has been anticipated.
There is a lot more to these prevailing, longer-term cycles that will be elaborated in forthcoming publications. For now, it is important to look at what the short-term and intermediate analysis is revealing…
Stock Indices continue to fulfill the 3 – 6 month outlook for an overall advance from late-Dec. into May 2019 – when a host of weekly & monthly cycles peak (in domestic and global equity indexes). Not only does that include the aforementioned index cycles, but also multiple distinct cycles in key proxy stocks.
One of those was discussed last July – when it presaged a major top in the entire market and produced a textbook ‘a’ & ‘b’ wave decline and rebound leading into late-Sept. 2018. At the same time, that stock (NFLX) was repeating a 14 – 15 Week Cycle that pinpointed its secondary high in late-Sept. ’18.
That same stock helped time the late-Dec. low and projected a sharp rally into mid-Jan. – the ensuing phase of that 14 – 15 Week Cycle. The subsequent phase is coming back int0 play on April 22 – May 6 – portending an intermediate top. That is reinforced by the 19-week & 38 – 39 week Cycle Progressions – both of which pinpointed the Dec. 24 – 28 low…
So, to reiterate, the equity markets are approaching (or some have even entered) a pivotal time that has been in focus since last Sept. It is the ideal time for a multi-month peak and potentially the high of 2019.
Leading into this cycle high, stock indexes have continued to maintain their intermediate uptrends and could still stretch some additional gains out of these moves. As also described in early-January, the monthly trend structure in several key tech stocks projected 2019 rallies to new all-time highs.
Some of them, like MSFT, have long since fulfilled that.”
Stocks have entered a danger period when a multi-month peak has been forecast (since 3Q ’18). Daily & weekly cycles pinpoint April 22 – May 3 as most synergistic time for peak. They have fulfilled ongoing analysis for a 6 – 12 month bottom in late-2018 (~3.25-Year Cycle) followed by a strong, 4 – 5-month rally into April/May 2019 (weekly cycles pinpoint late-April – early-May ‘19 as ideal period for a peak) – when a significant peak is expected, near their Sept./Oct. ’18 highs. May 2019 begins a precarious period for equity (and energy) markets!
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.