Stock Market Drop into April 19th on Track; Multi-Week Low Likely.
04/12/24 – “Stock indexes are reinforcing potential multi-month peaks and intensifying downside reversals. This topping phase has been unfolding since some remaining strong stocks & indexes (many others have been peaking since December ’23) peaked on March 20/21st – the start of a new Natural Year.
As explained many times, that first ‘month’ of the Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times abrupt changes that influence the ensuing ~11 ‘months’. The S+P Indexes (400 & 500) were a couple of the last to peak with the S+P Midcap precisely fulfilling a ~14.5-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – connecting peaks in Sept ’20, Nov ’21, Feb ’23 and April 2024.
Just before that, the S+P 500 peaked in late-March ’24, precisely fulfilling a 34 – 35-week high (late-March ’22) – high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-Jly ’23) – (high; late-March 2024) Cycle Progression… arriving 2 years from that late-March ’22 peak.
The NQ-100 has been in a topping process for the past ~6 weeks, having traded sideways through March after surging into late-Feb ’24 and fulfilling an ongoing ~2-month/~60-degree cycle and setting its highest daily close at that time. Early-April added signs of reversing lower and this past week has reinforced that. A drop into April 17 – 22 is likely…
On a 1 – 2 week basis, the NQ-100 has a key level of support near 17,400 – where its previous (Dec ’23) high, intervening (late-Jan ’24) low and reaffirmed range-trading support (17,400 – 18,000 – 18,600/ NQM) converge. On a 2 – 4 week basis, it has a second – and similar – support near 16,600/NQM.
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders could have lightened up on long positions in anticipation of a sell-off that could stretch into late-May ‘24. The Weekly Re-Lay will update changes and signals in the shorter-term trends.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling multi-week sell signals that project an initial sharp decline into April 19th. That aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – the culmination of this pivotal transition period (the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year… the Month of Aggression). The key will be what occurs by/on April 19th with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs.
This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point and spurring a multi-week bounce.
The action leading into April 19th is expected to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to a related time frame surrounding mid-May ‘24.
What Would a Stock Market Sell-off into ~April 19th Reveal?
Does This Correspond to 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.