Stock Market Entering Crash Cycles

1–6 month traders can continue selling the Indices when the DJIA is trading at 17,950–18,288.  1–4 week traders should have entered short positions in e-mini SP futures…  [TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]

Stock Indices have just entered a 5-week period when the weekly 21 MAC could trigger multiple negative signals…In many ways, the action of the past few weeks is similar to a roller coaster nearing the peak of its initial ascent and slowly ‘rolling over’ as it prepares for a wild & accelerated decline.  And, just like in the case of the roller coaster, successive cars peak and turn lower… before others.  It is only once that final car has peaked & turned down that the excitement begins…

As explained this past week, the weekly 21 Low MARC is setting up the next several weeks as potentially bearish ones…This indicator is corroborated by several other technical & cyclical factors.  For instance…

The ESU has an 8-week low-low-low-(low?) Cycle Progression that comes into play during the coming week.  In order to fulfill/perpetuate that, it would probably take a serious spike down…It could be like that initial coaster descent – fast & furious.

Ironically, that comes shortly after the DJTA perpetuated an 8-week high-high-high-high Cycle Progression – that projects a more decisive (and accelerated) 4–8 week decline.  As a result, it would usher in the potential for a significant decline in the coming week.

Validating that, the DJ Transports & DJ Composite triggered new weekly 2 Close Reversal sell signals (an outside-week/2 Close Reversal sell signal in the Transports) that should spur an accelerated drop in the next 1–3 weeks.

[The DJ Transports have a synergistic web of 6–12 month support at ~xxxx–xxxx/DJTA.  Ultimately, they could drop to ~xxxx–xxxx – before their entire decline is complete…The July 2015 INSIIDE Track will elaborate on this analysis.]

All of this comes just as the Indices are completing the 2^nd Quarter & transitioning into the very dangerous 3^rd Quarter of 2015 – when the ‘lion’s share’ of anticipated 20+% declines have been anticipated.

That would fulfill many of the cycles discussed since late-2014.  One of the most noteworthy is the ‘17-Year Cycle of Financial Crises’ that most recently timed the Russian Ruble crisis of mid-1998 (that immediately followed the Asian Financial Crisis)…

In 1998, the DJIA saw an initial decline from early-May into mid-June… similar to what has transpired in 2015.  That was followed by a brief bounce and then a sharper, ~20% drop in July & August 1998.  That decline ultimately bottomed in early-October 1998.

17 years prior to that, another financial crisis unfolded in which the DJIA topped in early-May 1981 and then saw its secondary high in mid-June.  It then entered a ~21% decline – ultimately bottoming in late-Sept./early-Oct. 1981… a 17-Year precursor to 1998 and potentially a 34-Year precursor to 3Q 2015.

And that is corroborated by the mid-point of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Crashes & Corrections…

The action of the past week increased the potential for bearish moves as the Indices enter 3Q 2015.  On a near-term basis, the ESU & NQU rallied right to weekly resistance and reversed lower – failing to close above previous highs at the peaks (another successful repelling by resistance). 

At the same time, the DJIA retested its near-term resistance (up to 18,169) and its weekly 21 High MAC (18,150) and spiked to new intra-month highs without closing above the previous highs.  Here again, the testing & holding of intermediate resistance sets the stage for a more convincing decline in the ensuing week(s)…

1–3 & 3–6 month traders can continue getting on the short side of Stock Indices – when the DJIA is trading at 17,950 up to 18,288/DJIA – and hold these short positions until two consecutive weekly closes above 18,288/DJIA.

2–4 week traders can be selling Sept. e-mini S+P futures…up to 2114.5/ESU…”