Stock Market Indicators Project New Multi-Month Surge; Early-April Low Fulfilled Downside!
04/21/25 – Stock Indices appear to be tracing out a bottom with the DJTA, S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 potentially leading a reversal higher… just as they led reversals lower in late-Nov ’24, late-Jan ’25 & late-Feb ’25. While the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 have trended lower from the April 14th high, the DJTA, IDX & QRM have remained inside the April 11/14th trading range – moving primarily sideways.
Those declines (DJIA, ESM & NQM) and consolidations are likely some form of ‘b’ or ‘2’ wave retracement before a second 3 – 5 day (or longer) rally. Several indexes dropped to their daily HLS levels (extreme downside daily targets) on April 16th and held. That portends a new 1 – 2 week low within the ensuing 2 – 3 trading days (April 21/22nd at latest).
That was just reinforced by several indexes repeating that pattern today – dropping to their daily HLS levels and holding. In those weaker indexes (DJIA, ESM & NQM), they also attacked weekly support levels – increasing the likelihood for a secondary low by/on April 21st/22nd…
Of course, this is also a higher probability based on what equities have accomplished in 2025…
Stock indexes fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for 20 – 25% (or larger) declines into early-April while tracing out a textbook monthly chart scenario for 1 – 2 month lows to take hold.
All that reinforced the decisive nature of cycle lows on April 3 – 7th, when most stocks bottomed. Since the start of 2025, the focus has been on March/April – more specifically on late-March/early-April ’25 – as the most likely time for the culmination of multi-month stock plunges. That has been fulfilled.
The corresponding price expectations were also stressed repeatedly…
As described in February & March, stocks had become increasingly likely to fulfill (minimum) 17-Year Cycle projections – for 20 – 25% declines – by/in early-April ’25 when an initial bottom was/is most likely. That is why a pair of plunges were projected to follow the late-February reversal signals.
That was corroborated by a myriad of timing indicators projecting sell-offs into April 3 – 7, including a ~9-week/~2-month high-high-high-high-(low; April 1 – 7) Cycle Progression – in the DJIA, DJTA & other indexes – and the ubiquitous ~8-month cycle from the August 5, ’24 low.
In the S+P 500, that ~8-month cycle (same cycle that projected the IDX Nov 22/25, ’24 peak) split into a symmetrical ~4-month/123-day low (Aug 5) – high (Dec 6) – (low; April 4/7th) cycle.
The DJTA also completed a 2DGR retracement while fulfilling the potential for the longest decline since 2022 (a higher magnitude 4-Shadow, which is actually confirmation of an impulse wave down).
In setting recent lows, the S&P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 plunged to decisive range-trading targets while the more bearish DJTA plummeted 30% into early-April cycle lows. The S+P Midcap also matched the magnitude of its 2020 decline (~900+ points) – the largest drop in its history.
As a result, they have fulfilled almost all of what was projected for the first ~4 months of 2025 and find themselves in a much better position to trace out a multi-week rally.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are reinforcing developing bottoms after plunging into decisive cycle lows in early-April ’25 (April 3, 4 & 7th possessed greatest synergy of cycles for completing 20 – 30% projected plunges) while fulfilling major downside price targets and 17-Year Cycle analysis for 2025.
Their monthly trend patterns, monthly 21 MACs & MARCs, monthly (and weekly) cycles, monthly downside objectives & 6 – 12 month support levels all argue for powerful rallies that could catapult key indexes up to new all-time highs. The (perceived) multi-year wave structure is the same.
Metals are corroborating as Silver (along with Platinum & Palladium) fulfilled ongoing forecasts for major lows in early-April… followed by powerful surges. Meanwhile, Gold just pulled back to support and rallied into the current time period – the days surrounding April 19th (Date of Aggression) – and is expected to set a 2 – 3 month peak at that time.
Why is April 4th/7th Bottom Likely To Spur Rallies to New All-Time Highs?
How are Monthly Trend & Monthly 21 MACs Reinforcing Projected Lows?
Which Indexes are Most Likely to Rally Back to Their Highs?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.