Stock Market Poised for Powerful Surge; Monthly Trends Portend New Highs.
05/07/25 – Opening ranges are a frequently discussed tool – incorporating time and price – that play a pivotal role in trading. While this is not the type of indicator that triggers direct trading signals, it plays a corroborating role in other trigger signals and technical indicators.
The critical aspect of these is not as much the range itself – although that plays two key roles – but when and where a market breaks out of those opening ranges. That is what it takes to trigger an intra-period (day, week, month, year, Natural Year, etc.) trend.
There are many pertinent discussions that could revolve around opening ranges, at this point in time, but the focus of this one is the new monthly opening ranges and the potential for related intra-month trend triggers in either direction.
Simply put, the month-opening range is considered the first three trading days of any given month. An intra-month trend signal is triggered when a market gives a daily close above or below that 3-trading-day range (see page 2).
Like all indicators, this one requires synergy to take on greater significance and hold more credibility. There are also times (see Gold & Silver) when an initial intra-month trend signal needs reinforcement due to conflicting 1 – 2-week indicators… most notably the daily trend indicator.
There are many times, like the current setup in stock indexes, when an intra-month trend signal can provide a powerful confirming signal as well…
Stock Indices remain positive – on a 2 – 4 week basis – reinforcing that a multi-month bottom likely took hold on April 7th… the convergence of monthly, weekly & daily cycles and the fulfillment of downside targets discussed since late-2024.
The April 7th lows were very significant as they saw many indexes attack 6 – 12 month support zones, 3 – 6 month downside targets, and fulfill 17-Year Cycle-related projections for 20 – 25% (possibly 35 – 50%) declines leading into early-April.
A preponderance of benchmark stocks (including AAPL, AMD, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MU, NVDA, & TSLA) completed ~32 – ~56% declines at that time – powerfully fulfilling the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks & Declines in which stock plunges of 30 – 50+% are seen on a regular (17-year) basis.
Major financial stocks concurred as GS, C, & MS plunged ~34 – 35% each and previously ‘high-flying’ airline stocks (DAL, UAL, & AAL) plunged 50 – 55%.
The biggest losers were many former tech/chip/AI darlings whose values evaporated with AMD losing ~67% from its ’24 peak while MU lost ~61%. INTC plummeted 65% and even NVDA lost over 43% in a ~3-month period.
Those cumulative losses are one (BIG) reason why stocks have been poised for a larger advance following those April 7th declines.
Many stock indexes plummeted to 1 – 2 year support, range-trading targets, and/or downside objectives with the S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 providing perfect examples (see previously published charts dating back to the late-Nov ’24 highs). That, too, set the stage for a much larger rally.
The May 2nd weekly close above 2850/IDX was a powerful reinforcing factor (see chart on page 1).
The DJIA may have reached the most noteworthy synergy of major support zones and downside targets – signaling a multi-month bottom on April 7th.
As described through most of the year, the majority of weekly & monthly cycles converged in late-March/ early-April ’25 and were expected to culminate a 20 – 25+% decline with the greatest synergy of daily, weekly & monthly cycles converging in a 3-day period on April 3 – 7th… the ideal time for a bottom.
By setting its low on April 7th, the DJIA precisely connected the March ’20 (Covid-19) low, the late-Sept ’22 low and the early-April ’25 low – each 132 weeks from the other… symmetry and synergy!
However, the price levels are the most revealing!
The DJIA reached its April ’24 low (4th wave of lesser degree support*** on a multi-month basis) AND retested its 2022 peak (36,952/DJIA) while spiking down to its rising monthly 21 Low MAC AND 40 High MAC. It accomplished all that without turning its monthly trend down.
All those factors signal the DJIA (and other indexes) could make it back to their all-time highs in the coming months (or weeks).
[***That 4th wave of lesser degree was part of the 5-wave advance from March ’23 into Nov/Dec ’24 – a higher magnitude wave III advance. (The preceding wave I advance was from Sept ’22 into Dec ’22, followed by the wave II decline into March ’23.)
IF April ’25 timed the subsequent wave IV low – occurring right after reaching its primary downside wave target at the wave 4 of III low (4th wave of ‘lesser degree’ support) – it would now usher in a final wave V advance that could peak near or above the Nov/Dec ’24 high.
That could create a subsequent top in the coming months and potentially usher in a second 25 – 35+% decline in 2025/2026 – leading into a 17-Year Cycle from the 2009 low in 2026. More on that to follow.]
Stock indices rallied into early-May and now stand at a crossroads, needing the intra-month trends to turn up in order to extend these rallies – potentially into [reserved for subscribers].” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are powerfully reinforcing analysis for surges to new all-time highs after confirming multi-month bottoms in early-April ’25 – when the culmination of 20 – 30+% plunges was forecast. At the time, they fulfilled major 1 – 2-year downside price targets and related 17-Year Cycle analysis for 2025.
Their monthly trend patterns, monthly 21 MACs & MARCs, monthly (and weekly) cycles, monthly downside objectives & 6 – 12 month support levels all argue for powerful rallies that catapult key indexes up to new all-time highs in the coming months. The (perceived) multi-year wave structure is arguing for the same.
Metals are corroborating as Silver (along with Platinum & Palladium) fulfilled ongoing forecasts for major lows in early-April, triggering revealing buy signals that were followed by powerful surges. Mid-May ’25 could/should trigger another wave of bullish signals. Meanwhile, Gold rallied into the days surrounding April 19th (Date of Aggression) – and was/is expected to set a 2 – 3 month peak at that time.
What Wave Structure Projected April 4th/7th Bottom Followed by Rallies to New All-Time Highs?
How are Monthly Trend & Monthly 21 MACs Reinforcing Those Projected Lows?
How Does Outlook for MAJOR Surge in White Metals Concur?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.