Stock Market Reinforcing Cycle Highs & July/August ‘24 Danger Zone; Tech/AI Stocks Poised for Plunges!
07/24/24 – July 17 – 19th Cycle Shift Accelerates – “Stock Indices are selling off again as the Nasdaq-100 further confirms its July ‘24 peak and the outlook for an overall decline into August 2024.
It rebounded to begin the week, rallying right back to its now-descending daily 21 Low MAC, daily trend point & daily 21 High MARC (the 21 High MARC was at 20,086 so the NQU peaked at 20,084, remaining below that pivotal resistance) while matching the magnitude of its initial bounce – creating a wave ‘4’ rebound that equaled the wave ‘2’ rebound.
That ushered in a new sell-off that is now attacking the primary 2 – 3 week downside targets (from the July 11th peak), detailed in recent weeks, and could easily drop below those initial objectives [reserved for Weekly Re-Lay subscribers]…
The NQ-100 is powerfully reinforcing the 17-Year Cycle scenario (anticipating intra-year highs in July ’24 & possibly October ‘24) as well as several independent (and non-correlated) corroborating cycles of its own…
In 2020/2021, the Nasdaq 100 surged for ~20 months before peaking.
In 2024, the Nasdaq 100 matched that advance and surged for ~20 months from its October 2022 bottom into July 2024 – when a multi-week and possibly multi-month top was most likely.
That ~20-month advance was split into successive ~9-month advances that occurred 12 months apart (Oct ‘22 into July ‘23 and October 2023 into July 2024) with the July 2024 peak fulfilling this form of wave symmetry.
It is expected to wait until August ’24 (ideally mid-August but several indicators should hone that) to set a 1 – 2 month low.
In contrast, the Russell 2000 – which had multi-week cycles bottoming in mid-to-late-June ’24 – has not even turned its daily trend down and can not do so until July 26th, at the very earliest…
Then you have the DJIA, which is mirroring the action of 2007 (previous occurrence of 17-Year Cycle). At that time, the DJIA consolidated in May & June ’07 and then surged during the second week of July (July 9 – 13, 2007) before spiking higher on July 16 – 20, 2007 & setting a new 1 – 2 month peak.
It then sold off into mid-August ‘07 before rallying into mid-October ‘07 and setting a final peak.
In 2024, the DJIA consolidated in May & June ’07 and then triggered a bullish surge during the second week of July (July 8 – 12, 2024) before spiking higher during the ensuing week (July 15 – 19, 2024).
Will it repeat the pattern for late-July – mid-Oct.?
The S+P 500 & DJIA are targeting lower levels with the S+P 500 moving toward its own 2 – 4 week downside objectives surrounding xxxx/ESU as the DJIA could drop back to ~xx,xxx/DJIA – its ~2-week downside target…
One of the remaining bullish indexes is now fulfilling its upside objectives (though it has only reached the lower end of this target range so more upside is possible) after bottoming in late-June/early-July ’24…
The DJUA is an index that has been tracing out a textbook Elliott Wave/weekly & monthly trend/weekly 21 MAC AND 26 – 27-month cycle scenario that projected a new surge in July ‘24. In early-June, it was explained how the DJUA was poised for an additional ~2-week decline into cycle lows in late-June, when its weekly trend & 21 MAC structure would likely spur a new rally.
6-12-24 – “Meanwhile, the DJUA – the index more closely linked to movement of interest rates and/or the Bond market (both bottomed in October ’23 after declining from March/April 2022) – is in a similar setup on a daily basis but a much different one on a weekly basis.
As a result, both are poised to see 1 – 2 week sell-offs but the DJUA could be pulling back to rising support near 880/DJUA …”
That rising support (weekly 21 High MAC) ultimately met DJUA price action around 900/DJUA on June 28/ July 1st – as intermediate cycles were bottoming – and helped spur a reversal higher and the onset of a new impulse wave, in sync with that outlook.
The DJUA completed a textbook ‘a-b-c’ correction while testing its 2024 opening range (support for its prevailing intra-year uptrend).
That correction is likely the wave ‘4’ of a potential 5-wave advance from its secondary low in February ’24. It closely matched the magnitude of its preceding wave ‘2’ correction (March/April ’24) – reinforcing the time and price for a multi-week low.
That was projected to spur a rally to new highs, which has taken place as the DJUA rallies into/through July 2024, the latest phase of a 26 – 27-month low (Sept ’15) – high (Nov ’17) – high (Feb ’20) – high (April ’22) – (high; July 2024) Cycle Progression that could time an important peak…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes set decisive multi-month peaks projected for mid-July 2024, with the NQ-100 perpetuating parallels to 2007, in line with the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks. Several timing indicators also projected a critical top for July 10/11, 2024… and a sharp drop into August 2024! The Danger Zone is intensifying and poised to trigger sharp plunges in key stocks and indexes!
A revealing ‘proxy’ or ‘cue’ stock (a stock that often gives advanced signs of shifts in a broader market) fulfilled a (multi-month) peak projected for June 17 – 21st at/near 140.0/NVDA. It then pinpointed primary multi-month downside targets (below 97.0/NVDA)… that would involve a serious sell-off in this and other tech stocks leading into August ‘24. Recent action has reinforced that outlook.
A secondary high was projected for July 8 – 12th and was fulfilled with uncanny precision… projecting a sharp drop into early-August. It generated a new sell signal – along with the Nasdaq-100 – and should trigger a larger sell-off in both markets into August 2024… in perfect sync with the 17-Year Cycle!
How Does Projected Mid-July 2024 Peak Reinforce Outlook for Sharp Sell-off into August ’24?
Why Did 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Forecast Pivotal NQ + SP 500 Highs for July 2024?
Will This Corroborate the Projected 2025/26 Recession (& Stagflation) Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.