Stock Market Reinforcing Outlook for 2 – 3 Month Advance – from late-Aug. into Nov. 11 – 15! How Long/Deep Should Ensuing Correction Last?
10/16/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Geopolitical Upheaval Setting Stage: “Stock Indices remain in a narrowing trading range since their early-June lows, with the ultimate objective being a rally back to their July highs. On a near-term basis, stock indexes fulfilled the outlook for a rally into mid-month from the Oct. 3 lows. A 1 – 2 week high was expected at this time, arriving ~90 degrees (3 months) from the mid-July high and after a .618 rebound in time.
Corroborating that, the daily trend, daily LHRs, intra-month uptrends, and a recurring ~30-degree cycle (highs on 7/15 – 16, 8/13 & 9/12) projected a new 1 – 2 week top on Oct. 14/15.
While the ideal cyclic scenario is that this recent high holds for at least a week, price action needs to validate (or clarify) that. The intermediate outlook remains the primary focus, so additional highs are still expected – whether or not this peak holds for 1 – 2 weeks – in the immediate aftermath of a quick pullback.
The indexes have closed above their daily 21 MACs and are beginning to turn those channels higher. The inversely-correlated daily 21 MARCs will enter a steady decline on Oct. 18/21 – a drop that will last almost two weeks and provide a developing positive influence on the (inversely-correlated) daily 21 MACs.
The coming weeks should also help pinpoint when a 1 – 2 month (or longer) high is most likely. The DJIA has a web of related cycles (including 11 – 12 week, 22 – 23 week & 45 – 46 week cycles) that converge in the first half of Nov. 2019.
Those cycles cast a little wider net than is preferable – allowing for that peak to take hold at any time between Nov. 1 – Nov. 15 (and a normal 1-week range of error could expand that even wider without technically violating those weekly cycles). A peak at that time would fulfill the following cycles:
— 11 – 12-week low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.
— 22 – 23-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.
— 45 – 46-week low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.
— 29 weeks high (Oct. 1-5, ’18) – high (Apr. 22-26, ’19) – (high) Cycle Progression.
— 36 weeks high-high (Jan. – Oct. ’18) / 58 weeks high – high (Oct. ’18 – Nov. ’19) – a 1.618/1 relationship.
— ~60-degree high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
— ~90-degree rally (from diverse Aug. ’19 lows).
Daily cycles, daily LHRs and the intra-month trend setup (in November) should help hone that to a more precise expectation as the month of November nears.”
Stock indexes poised for new advance to take hold soon and propel equities higher into Nov. 11 – 15. Uncanny web of cycles converge in first half of Nov. ’19, setting stage for pivotal period. What Could Culminate Latest Rally… on Nov. 8 – 15?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.