Stock Market Reinforcing Outlook for Surge to New All-Time Highs!
05/14/25 – Intra-month trends – up or down – provide a strong indication of what to expect leading into mid-month. That is often when an intra-month extreme – high or low – is set. As with all indicators, it takes synergy to corroborate this tool and increase its effectiveness.
When a market has declined into mid-month, it also has the potential to create an Intra-month V Reversal higher in which an initial high is seen early in the month, an intra-month low is set near mid-month, and a higher intra-month high is set near the end of the month – after a rally from mid-month.
The XAU (Gold & Silver Index) is one market that is providing the potential for this – based on a wealth of corroborating indicators… On a 1 – 2-year basis, the XAU has just retraced to its Oct ’24 peak – a level of breakout resistance that is now ‘resistance turned into support’ (~175.00).
At the same time, it has spiked down to its latest weekly HLS level at 175.41/XAU (downside extreme target for this week)… as it nears its rising weekly 21 High MAC. It has done that while retracing 50% (175.71/XAU) of its April surge and 50% (175.12/ XAU) of its broader Feb – April ’25 advance.
At the same time, Gold is now within striking distance of its downside target and the convergence of 3 (out of 4) weekly HLS levels at 3123 – 3169/GCM. And Silver is showing continued resilience, remaining in a relatively tight ~5-week range and holding above its weekly support.
While the drop to these levels does not guarantee a low, or (yet) signal a reversal higher, it is worth monitoring to see if the XAU shows any signs of bottoming near current levels.
There are other markets where this mid-month period could also usher in an intermediate shift…
Stock Indices remain positive – on a 2 – 4 week basis – reinforcing that a multi-month bottom took hold on April 7th. They continue to rally after fulfilling the 3 – 6 month outlook for 20 – 30% declines into early-April – when a wealth of cycles & timing indicators converged.
In many cases, stock indexes are reaching 1 – 2 month upside targets as they enter mid-month – the ideal time for a 1 – 2 week peak. This is particularly noteworthy in the ongoing lead index – the S+P Midcap 400…
The S+P Midcap has surged back to its year-opening range and January ’25 low at 3075/IDX. That coincides with its .618 rebound target (3069/ IDX) while attacking monthly resistance at 3071 – 3095/IDX and nearing its declining weekly 21 High MAC at 3083/IDX.
All this is just below range-trading resistance and its 2024 close – near 3125/IDX. At the very least, this could spur a quick 3 – 5 day correction.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are powerfully reinforcing analysis for surges to new all-time highs after confirming multi-month bottoms in early-April ’25 – when the culmination of 20 – 30+% plunges was forecast. At the time, they fulfilled major 1 – 2-year downside price targets and related 17-Year Cycle analysis for 2025. A brief pullback could now intervene.
Their monthly trend patterns, monthly 21 MACs & MARCs, monthly (and weekly) cycles, monthly downside objectives & 6 – 12 month support levels all argue for powerful rallies that catapult key indexes up to new all-time highs in the coming months. The (perceived) multi-year wave structure is arguing for the same.
Metals are corroborating as Silver (along with Platinum & Palladium) fulfilled ongoing forecasts for major lows in early-April, triggering revealing buy signals that were followed by powerful surges. Mid-May ’25 could/should trigger another wave of bullish signals. Meanwhile, Gold rallied into the days surrounding April 19th (Date of Aggression) – and was/is expected to set a 2 – 3 month peak at that time.
What Wave Structure Projects Rallies to New All-Time Highs?
How are Monthly Trend & Monthly 21 MACs Reinforcing Early-April Projected Lows?
Will Silver/White Metals Surge (as Gold Corrects) With Stock Indexes?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.